I feel like I’ve passed an emotional watershed moment in Liverpool’s season. I no longer expect them to do great things. Strangely, that may be a good thing.
Expect Less and Enjoy More
In my long life as a sports fan, I’ve found that my enjoyment generally goes up as my expectations go down.
Sure, it’s great to follow a dominant team. Dominant teams repeatedly do wonderful things, individually and collectively. That’s fun. And as a fan of a dominant team, you can lord that dominance over your friends and acquaintances that follow rival teams. That’s fun. Then there’s winning stuff. That’s the most fun of all.
To be clear, I WANT Liverpool to be dominant. I want them to win all the trophies. I want them to strike fear into the hearts of opponents.
But, for me at least, when I follow a dominant team, the emotional upside is quite limited. Unless the match is a cup final or clinches a league title, the most positive emotion I’m likely to register from the outcome is relief. Sure, the goals will still bring me joy. But the outcome will generally only bring relief.
And, when things DON’T go well for my dominant team, the outcome will bring me frustration, disappointment, anger, and some level of minor depression.
Conversely, when I follow a team that is anything less than dominant, my expectations go down. When my expectations go down, my emotional upside goes up. I love watching my team do well when I didn’t believe they would, or when I just wasn’t all that confident. The pressure is off, and the thrill of an upset can be on.
Liverpool’s Dominance Is Gone — At Least for Now
Since 2018-19, with the exception of one season, Liverpool have been a dominant team. And, to be sure, they have been nothing but a delight to watch. But, still, as a fan of a dominant team, I’ve developed that sense of entitlement.
This season, Liverpool have been anything but dominant. The squad has multiple problems. Some of them they may solve, and others (namely, injuries) feel like they could get even worse through the rest of this season. Although Liverpool have tricked me into believing they are “back” at least three times this season, I am unlikely to believe they will be back to their dominant selves for the rest of this season.
They are not back.
Liverpool’s Defensive Crisis Remains Real
Throughout the season, Liverpool have struggled defensively. For a few moments in recent weeks, it appeared that Liverpool was moving in the right direction to fix this defensive problem. On closer inspection, however, this blip now appears to have been yet another harbinger of false hope.
Three weeks ago, Klopp changed LFC’s formation from the vaunted 4-3-3 that Liverpool have used almost exclusively since his arrival in 2015, to a 4-2-4 . As I wrote at the time, there were several levels on which that change made sense. The change especially made sense because it came with certain additional tactical adjustments that were designed to shore up Liverpool’s defense. Similar tactical adjustments could have been made while still using the 4-3-3, but Klopp decided to make everything a bit different. Apparently, Klopp believed that the change in system would act as a way to reset his players’ brains.
To some extent, the change worked. Since then, Liverpool have managed a few clean sheets. Notably, they put in an outstanding defensive performance in their win against Manchester City, which may have the most potent attack in world football.
Liverpool Were Woeful in Their Last Two League Matches
But the overall data since the formational change suggests that Liverpool’s defensive woes have continued. The league matches against West Ham and Nottingham Forest prove it.
Although the Reds snuck a 1-0 win against West Ham, they nonetheless conceded five big chances. FIVE. As a reminder, a “big chance” is defined as “a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.” Big chances have a minimum xG of 0.3.
In our loss to Nottingham Forest, we once again conceded FIVE big chances. It’s remarkable that, despite conceding ten big chances in those two matches, we conceded only one goal. In fact, it’s not just remarkable — it’s ridiculously fucking lucky. Of course, part of it was not luck — part of it was goalkeeper Alisson Becker making extraordinary saves. Alisson has been Liverpool’s best and most consistent player this season. Alisson has saved 6.7 goals more this season than he would have been expected to save, based on the shot location. The next-best keeper in the league this season so far (Kepa Arrizabalaga) has saved 4.4 more goals than would be expected.
Liverpool have conceded almost as many big chances so far this season as they did in all of 2018-19. Overall, Liverpool’s xG conceded this season puts is 14th best in the league. But, our big chances conceded per game (2.8) is currently on pace to be worse than every team that has been relegated over the last five seasons.
Myriad Problems with Few Apparent Solutions
Liverpool have lots of problems, particularly defensively. And, it’s not clear to me how we’re going to solve them.
It All Starts with the Injuries
First, there’s the injuries. At the moment, the forward line is in the worst shape, with both Luis Díaz and Diogo Jota out until at least after the World Cup (and Jota maybe out for the season). In midfield, Naby Keïta has yet to play this season (whether he’s been injured or not). Curtis Jones and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain have just returned to the squad after being out for months. Thiago has been out with a sinus infection. Loanee Arthur Melo is out for months after having surgery on a thigh muscle.
And, in our back line, we’ve been missing both Joël Matip and Ibou Konaté for weeks. Indeed, Ibou’s yet to play this season. Robertson missed several games, though he has played well since his return.
It Appears Our Sports Science Team Has Failed
Many of these injuries have been muscular problems, which strongly suggests some type of issue with the sports science and fitness programs that the coaching staff have implemented. Just a few months ago I wrote a piece about how Liverpool’s genius sports science team was hugely responsible for Liverpool’s remarkable success while chasing four cups last season. That has not aged well.
It’s possible that Liverpool’s sports science team just got lucky last season, which was remarkably free of long-term injuries. But it’s also possible that they got it right last season, and they have nonetheless gotten it wrong this season, which has posed different fitness challenges.
Last season, Liverpool’s players enjoyed a very long preseason. This year, preseason was cut short both because the prior season ended later, and because this season started sooner. Last preseason, the Reds did not go on an overseas tour, as they did this year.
Last season, there was no mid-year World Cup, and the Reds therefore faced fewer mid-week matches in the opening weeks.
And, of course, last season the Reds were not coming off a grueling season the year before when they played the maximum number of games — most of them at nearly maximum intensity.
But, for whatever reason, the Reds’ sports science team appears to have screwed up this season big-time. Again, maybe they have just been unlucky. But it certainly appears that the sports scientists have inadequately prepared the Reds to play, given the huge number of games already missed due to muscle injuries.
Injuries Breed More Injuries
The worst part is that, with an already-injured squad, the Reds are just likely to develop more injuries. As the squad gets depleted, more and more players are pushed to play more frequently than they should. Each time a player plays while in the fitness “Red Zone,” they seriously risk getting injured themselves.
For the remaining games leading up to the World Cup, I will hold my breath. If the Reds get through that time frame without more serious muscular injuries, I will be surprised.
The Reds’ Other Problems Include Tactics and Tempo, Individual Errors, and Chronic Individual Under-Performance
I don’t have the energy to talk about all of the Reds’ other problems now. I’ll work myself up to it over the coming weeks and during the World Cup break. But there are so many problems in so many areas of the team that it feels highly unlikely that Klopp & Co. will fix them all any time soon.
Strap In and Try To Enjoy a Much Bumpier Ride
All of this means that we can’t expect consistency or dominance from this team. Indeed, we should expect the unexpected.
The Reds will still give us joy. They will still pull out wins like they did against Man City. They will still score in big bunches some days, as they have against Bournemouth and Rangers. They will still bring us moments of transcendent individual skill.
But they will also frustrate us, anger us, and disappoint us.
So strap in. Adjust your expectations. If you do, you might find yourself being more pleasantly surprised than disappointingly irritated. But that’s me. Your mileage may vary.
What About Tomorrow?
DIdn’t you just hear me tell you that this Liverpool team is wildly unpredictable? I’ve got no idea what we’ll do tomorrow.
It’s possible both Darwin Núñez and Mo Salah will have hat tricks, and we will beat Leeds 7-0.
But it feels almost equally likely that we could squander six big chances without a goal, while losing 0-2.
I don’t even know what formation we will play. Against Ajax this week, we shifted from the 4-2-4 and instead went with more of a 4-diamond-2 formation (4-1-2-1-2). That formation is closer to the 4-3-3 than it is the 4-2-4. Ajax and Leeds have some similarities, so it wouldn’t shock me if we played that diamond again.
But hell if I know.
For what little it’s worth, here’s my wild-ass guess:
Konaté could get his first start of the season ahead of Gomez, and Tsimikas may come in for Robbo. Jones or Milner might start in midfield ahead of Fabinho, who has played a lot recently. I’m pretty confident that both Núñez and Salah will start, but I’ve got very little idea of who will start with them. Harvey Elliott could definitely keep his spot. Firmino could as well, but he seems like a bigger injury risk at this point in his career.
I’ll eschew a prediction in favor of two hopes: no injuries, and a Reds victory. My expectations have been lowered. Here’s hoping the joyfulness goes up in response.
