This run-in is already intense. But from here on out, it could go up to 11.
Tomorrow when we wake up, we will find out who we face in the Champions League quarter finals. This draw will also determine the bracket for the semis. In other words, this is the last draw.
This draw is random — there is no seeding, and there are no restrictions. We could face another team from England in the quarters.
The seven other teams are:
- Man City
- Chelsea
- Bayern Munich
- Atletico Madrid
- Real Madrid
- Villareal
- Benfica
I have numbered these teams in the reverse order of teams I would prefer Liverpool to face. City and Bayern are clearly the best two teams of the bunch. But, Bayern (and City, for that matter) play in a way that Liverpool love to face. Chelsea and Atletico do not. Liverpool are clearly better than Chelsea, based on results and underlying performance analytics. Nonetheless, we’ve played them three times this season, and the game has been tied at the end of 90 minutes all three times. Chelsea are very good at stifling us.
As for Atletico, we managed to beat them twice in the group stages this year, but they would still be maddening to face now. The games would be tight, gritty, nasty affairs. The outcomes would rest on a few magic moments, which obviously could tilt in either direction.
I don’t know anything about the playing styles of Villareal (currently 7th in La Liga) and Benfica (currently third in Portugal), but I know both teams have a much lower rating than any of the other teams, except Atletico (currently 4th in La Liga). The fivethirtyeight.com algorithm has Villareal slightly above Atletico, and Benfica is quite a bit below Atletico. According to the algorithm, they are sixth through eighth most likely to win. The algorithm says Villareal have a four percent shot at winning the CL, and Benfica have a one percent chance.
Real Madrid are the undisputed kings of the Champions League, having won the European title an outlandish 13 times.
Here’s the crazy part, in my opinion.
If we happen to draw Man City in the quarter finals, then our schedule in April will look like this:
April 2 – Watford (PL)
April 5/6 – Man City (CL)
April 9/10 – Man City (PL)
April 12/13 – Man City (CL)
Or, we could instead draw Chelsea:
April 2 – Watford (PL)
April 5/6 – Chelsea (CL)
April 9/10 – Man City (PL)
April 12/13 – Chelsea (CL)
Then, we can examine the additional possibilities presented if Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool all advance to the semifinals of the FA Cup. They are all big favorites to do so. Bonus bit of potential intrigue: Everton could also advance to the FA Cup semis.
If we were to draw Man City in the semis of the FA Cup AND in the CL quarter finals, our schedule in April would be:
April 2 – Watford (PL)
April 5/6 – Man City (CL)
April 9/10 – Man City (PL)
April 12/13 – Man City (CL)
April 16 – Man City (FA Cup)
Obviously, the same could happen with Chelsea (or we might get Chelsea in one draw, and City in the other). It’s possible for us to face Chelsea in all four competitions this season (for a total of 5 or 6 matches), which I’m pretty sure two English teams have never done.
I do NOT want any of the above scenarios to occur, as reflected in my ranking above. However, I must acknowledge a bit of giddiness at the idea of four consecutive HUGE matches against English rivals, cutting across two or three major competitions.
Regardless of which opponents we draw in any competition, the intensity is about to go up. To 11.
