I feel quite good about where LFC sit as a team overall. Through 10 Premier League matches, three CL matches, and two League Cup contests, the Reds remain undefeated. Although there have been a few too many draws in the league, overall both results and performances have been excellent. A review of the Reds’ performances generally passes both the eye test and statistical analysis. On the offensive side, Liverpool have clearly been the dominant team in the Premier League, and arguably the best attacking side in all of world football based on performances to date. According to the fivethirtyeight.com algorithm, only Bayern Munich and Ajax have had stronger attacks in Europe this season.
The Reds have been weaker on the defensive side, with only the fifth-best xGa in the Premier League. These weaknesses, in my estimation, come down to two primary issues: 1) injuries in the midfield which have led to instability; and 2) the returning CBs playing their way back into form. VVD has looked great — and he’s been great — but he’s still been playing significantly below his pre-injury standard. Joël Matip has been one of the Reds’ top performers on the season, but it appears he MIGHT nonetheless have been overtaken as a first-choice starter by the young Ibrahima Konaté. Konaté is not necessarily a better player than Matip, but his skillset probably better suits how Klopp wants us to play — with a very high defensive line that is tightly connected with our midfield and forwards. To me, based on the small sample size I’ve seen, Konaté looks like the player Dejan Lovren believed himself to be. He plays very aggressively — and he’s clearly been instructed to do so. Sometimes, this aggression leaves Ibou well out of position, but his recovery pace often allows him to get back in time to prevent disaster. Of course, with more experience, he will be out of position less frequently. He looks like he has an enormous upside.
As for the midfield, it’s certainly been beset with problems. A few minutes into Saturday’s match against Brighton, we were down to having three fit senior midfielders, all of whom had to be on the pitch. Those three — Henderson, Jones, and Oxlade-Chamberlain — have all been playing quite a bit of football over the last couple of weeks. Jones is also coming back from a recent injury. In addition, from a tactical standpoint, those three don’t necessarily fit well together on the pitch. The combination of fatigue and tactical mismatching left LFC quite vulnerable to Brighton’s pressing and quick passing combinations.
But, the news is not all bad in midfield. Thiago and Fabinho have both been in training this week, and they will both probably make an appearance at some point in today’s match. Naby Keïta and James Milner are both out with hamstring injuries, but will likely return within a couple of weeks after the next international break (which begins Monday). Harvey Elliott is the only midfielder who has a long-term injury, and even he should play again before the season is finished.
All of this leaves me thinking that LFC are well-poised to contend for both the Premier League and the Champions League. I really like our chances in the league. We will need some good fortune to make it all the way through the Champions League tournament, but I strongly believe that we are good enough to give ourselves a great opportunity to win it.
But, despite all of this optimism about the season overall, I am NOT optimistic about today.
First, as we’ve discussed, Atletico are perhaps the ultimate Klopptonite squad. Every game, they tightly pack a defense with world-class players, and every game they look to take their chances with lightning-fast counterattacks spearheaded by world-class forwards. Their players ooze class and play with just as much intensity as we do. They are well-trained in the dark arts, and their style gives us fits.
Secondly, Atleti badly need to win to maximize their chances of advancing. For us, winning would be nice, because it would guarantee that we advance, and would allow us to play reserves in the final two group stage matches. But the Reds lack the same urgent need for a win that will clearly be pushing Atletico.
It will be interesting to see who starts for LFC today. I think Robbo needs a rest — he’s found himself out of position on several occasions in recent matches, and his positioning has left several attackers onside in dangerous positions when they should not have been. I expect Matip to come back in. I would not be tremendously surprised if Joe Gomez plays with him, although I think VVD is likely to start. Since we have five subs, it would not be shocking to see Klopp taking a “platoon” approach, utilizing one or two pre-planned subs at halftime.
As always, the midfield poses the most mystery. I would probably start Fabinho, Jones, and Ox, and plan to bring on Henderson for Fabs and Thiago for either Ox or Jones. In attack, Jota probably needs a start. I’d guess he’ll come in for Firmino, but it could alternatively be for Salah.
Guess:
Prediction:
LFC 0 – Atletico 2
