After a nice mid-week performance, Liverpool are back to the Premier League, back on the road, and facing a rival for Top Four status.
I’m dialing back my expectations to a “3.”
Against Napoli, the Reds looked like themselves again, which they’ve really only done twice this season. Klopp reverted back to the 4-3-3, and his Reds obliged by upping their running and upping the pressure. On Tuesday, the Reds’ identity really was intensity. The performance and result were impressive, because LFC were up against an Italian team that has been among the best teams in Europe this season.
But past results may not be indicative of future performance. Or, at least, you can’t be sure which of Liverpool’s past results the future will replicate.
Intensity Is No Longer Our Identity
The stark reality is that, for the vast majority of this season, Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool team has been out-run and out-sprinted by its opposition. You can point to several other stats that have been seriously problematic — conceding big chances chief among them. Nonetheless, in my opinion, the most revealing and damning statistics this season have been the running stats.
As shown in the graph below from the Anfield Index “Under Pressure” podcast, in 2018-19 and 2019-20, Liverpool were first in the Premier League in sprints. Last season, Klopp’s men were third in that category. This season so far, LFC have plummeted to 16th in this critical measure of intensity. In other words, the team for which “intensity is our identity” are nearly in relegation form with respect to intensity.
Just one image to support our latest pod but it's critical👇 #lfc https://t.co/gCAnETcLuT pic.twitter.com/AT4S0tJCGM
— AIUnderPressure (@AIUnderPressure) November 1, 2022
Liverpool’s lack of sprinting has either caused or been a co-symptom of lots of other problems, which have led to very shaky results, especially in the Premier League. On the road, the Reds are still looking for their first victory of the year. Liverpool drew with Everton and Fulham away, and lost to Manchester United, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest.
Intensity, my ass.
Spurs Have Their Own Consistency Issues
I think Antonio Conte is an excellent football manager. Speaking of intensity, that man has it in spades. His teams at Juventus, Inter Milan, and Chelsea have all won league titles convincingly. Before the season, I thought Conte would lift Spurs to challenge for this season’s Premier League title.
So far, Spurs have failed to show the type of consistency needed to make a serious title challenge. Over their last six Premier League games, Tottenham have won three and lost three (to Arsenal, Man United, and Newcastle).
Nonetheless, Spurs currently find themselves in third place in the Premier League, ten points clear of ninth-placed Liverpool (with one game in hand).
Although Conte’s teams typically have a strong defensive identity and flourish on the counterattack, this season their offense has been better than their defense. Despite Liverpool’s defensive struggles, Spurs have actually conceded one more goal (albeit they have also played one more game). On the flip side, Tottenham have also scored three more goals than Liverpool.
Both Liverpool and Spurs have generated 21.1 xG in the Premier League. Defensively, Spurs’ xG allowed stands at 14.3, which is significantly better than Liverpool’s 17.2 xG allowed.
Like Liverpool, Spurs currently suffer with some significant injuries. Most notably, Spurs’ marksman Son Heung-Min is out indefinitely after fracturing the orbit socket around his eye. On Sunday, Spurs will also be missing forwards Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski, along with defender Cristian Romero.
What to Look For Tomorrow
As I said last week, I’ve basically given up on predicting which version of Liverpool we will see. Unless and until Liverpool manage to string together a series of solid performances, predicting how they will do on any particular occasion seems a fool’s game.
But, I can tell you what tactics and lineup I expect to see.
Coming off of the strong performance against a powerful Napoli team, I believe Klopp will stick with the 4-3-3 formation, hoping to coax more pressing from his men.
Hopefully, Klopp will also temper this 4-3-3 formation with some safeguards to prevent Spurs from opening up the Reds too often in transition. Specifically, I’m hoping that Klopp will direct Trent Alexander-Arnold to maintain a wider, deeper position than he did when playing in the 4-3-3 system earlier this season. In most games when the Reds have played that system, Trent played much more centrally and advanced. Thus, when the Reds lost the ball, Trent was even farther out of position than he would usually be when playing wider (albeit similarly high up the pitch).
When Klopp went to the 4-2-4 formation a few weeks ago, he tweaked Trent’s position to leave the right back deeper and wider in possession. This solidified the Reds’ transition defense by ensuring that Trent was more easily able to resume his defensive position after Liverpool lost the ball.
I’m hopeful that this 4-2-4 positional tweak with respect to Trent will now be incorporated into Liverpool’s 4-3-3 system.
Because the Reds have had a decent rest since Tuesday’s match, I don’t expect a lot of rotation. I think Darwin Núñez will probably return to the starting lineup, flanked by Mo Salah and SOMEONE on the left. Tuesday we saw Curtis Jones start on the left flank, and he did a passable job there. I’m betting he’ll play there again, because Jones is better defensively than Fabio Carvalho, who is the most likely other choice in that spot. Jones is also less likely than Carvalho to turn the ball over, potentially leading to a Spurs counter.
In midfield, I expect to see Fabinho and Thiago again. I’m guessing that Henderson will start with them this time, although I’d prefer to see Harvey Elliott in the right-sided central midfield slot.
In defense, Ibrahima Konaté’s presence appeared to make a huge difference on Tuesday. Ibou’s combination of speed and size gives Liverpool a dimension that neither Joe Gomez nor Joël Matip can deliver alongside Virgil van Dijk. I’m hoping and expecting to see Konaté retain that role indefinitely.
Both Robertson and Trent should start this one, given its potential importance in the race for Top Four. Thus, my predicted lineup and formation looks like this:
Because Spurs have such a lively and well-orchestrated counterattack, I certainly expect them to find space and get good chances against this Liverpool team. Hopefully, Liverpool’s pressing intensity will be sufficiently high to limit those opportunities.
With Núñez and Salah both in the team, I expect Liverpool to get good chances as well.
Fingers crossed that Liverpool perform better than Spurs in both penalty boxes.
Up the once-Mighty Reds!
