Early season battles against top rivals always feel bigger than they are.\u00a0The reality is that only three points are at stake, as in every league match.\u00a0The reality is that win, lose, or draw, the title race will still very much be on.\u00a0The reality is that it\u2019s too early in the season to know whether these particular points will be meaningful come May 2022, and the likelihood is \u2014 they won\u2019t be.\u00a0
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the way we feel as fans is often divorced from reality. And this kind of match-up cracks fans’ reality barrier with ferocity.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Reds lose this one, they could easily fall from first place into a four-way tie for fourth by the end of the weekend, and we will all be left to stew on that drop over a grotesquely-long two-week international break.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As fans, it\u2019s easy for us to think back to the 12-millimeter difference between winning and losing the league in the 2018-19 season. It makes us feel like every kick of the ball is critical against these Sky Blues. It\u2019s both ridiculous and glorious.\u00a0
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the start of the 2018-19 season, LFC has gathered 279 points in the Premier League, and Man City has 278 points.\u00a0
Narratives always abound around this matchup:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

• The cities of Manchester vs. Liverpool<\/li>
• Pep vs. J\u00fcrgen.\u00a0<\/li>
• Arab Petrostate vs. American speculators<\/li>
• Big-spending cheaters vs. Spend-what-we-make rules-followers<\/li>
• a \u201cwell-orchestrated symphony\u201d vs. \u201cheavy metal football\u201d\u00a0<\/li>
• Kevin de Bruyne vs. Mo Salah<\/li>
• Ederson vs. Alisson<\/li>
• VVD vs. reigning PL Player of the Year R\u00faben Dias<\/li>
• Raheem Sterling vs. scorned LFC fans\u00a0<\/li>
• Fewest goals conceded vs. most goals scored<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

  All of these narratives carry some emotional resonance, and some of them are intellectually interesting as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  However, the tactical narrative strikes me more forcefully than any of them.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  These two teams know each other\u2019s tendencies, strengths and weaknesses so very well. These two managers understand quite well which tactical tweaks stand the best chance of dulling their opponents\u2019 sharp edges.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  By reputation, Guardiola is the tactical mastermind, and Klopp the master motivator. But, in head-to-head matchups, I believe Klopp holds a critical tactical advantage over his more tactically-acclaimed counterpart. This advantage becomes apparent when viewing the teams\u2019 respective strengths and weaknesses from a \u201cfundamental theorem of poker\u201d standpoint \u2014 that is, you should always act in the way that your opponent does NOT want you to act.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Guardiola\u2019s teams are always capable of magnificence, majesty, and magic regardless of the opponent and its tactics. But there is a best way to increase your chances when facing Man City. \u00a0The best way to beat them is to press them, with intensity and efficiency. City\u2019s most recent instance of dropped points this season provides a fine example.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Southampton are a lower-table side, and City\u2019s players are better at every position on the pitch. Traditional wisdom would advise Southampton to park the bus against their more-skilled opponents, which is exactly what most teams do against City. \u00a0But Southampton ignored conventional wisdom, and reaped rewards for it. The Saints used an intense high press against City throughout the match, and in response City managed only a single shot on target for the whole match. City thrive on the time and space that most teams give them. They feed on patience, passing, and possession. And, despite having terrific speed and quality, City are not nearly as \u201cclinical\u201d or comfortable when counter-attacking. Thus, when faced with pressure, City, though still very capable, are less at ease. When pressed City lose fluency, rhythm, and often efficacy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Enter the Reds (and every other J\u00fcrgen Klopp team). Our identity is intensity. Year after year, Klopp\u2019s teams press more intensely and more efficiently than just about any other team in the world. Every opponent can expect \u201c90 minutes of hell\u201d in the form of relentless pressure whenever LFC lose possession.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  In other words, from a tactical standpoint, LFC are City\u2019s worst nightmare.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  But the same is definitely not true in reverse. \u00a0City also play with an intense, high-pressing approach on defense. And they are very, very good at it. But this is exactly the type of defense that Klopp\u2019s teams most relish playing against. The Reds salivate when opponents leave space behind their defense, and City\u2019s high defensive line does just that. To be sure, City\u2019s personnel permit them to play a high line with great confidence. Their back four \u2014 Walker, Dias, LaPorte, and (probably) Cancelo \u2014 are all very swift. Moreover, behind them is Ederson, who can make a strong claim to being the best \u201csweeper-keeper\u201d in the world (although Ederson\u2019s LFC counterpart is one of his strongest rivals for that claim). \u00a0City unquestionably has one of the strongest defenses in the world, and they stifle opponents from front to back, pressuring, cutting off passing lanes, and rarely permitting forays behind their line. City give up very few shots of any type, much less clear chances. Nonetheless, from a tactical standpoint there\u2019s little doubt that this is exactly the\u00a0type<\/em>\u00a0of defense LFC would prefer to face.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Conversely, City\u2019s preferred offensive approach does not exploit LFC\u2019s greatest defensive vulnerability. Liverpool\u2019s high defensive line is neither as fast nor as impenetrable as City\u2019s line. The best way to go at Liverpool is to take the direct route, sending long passes that bypass the press and the midfield, while trying to get runners behind the Reds\u2019 defense. If I were Pep Guardiola facing LFC, I would start Sterling on the left. I would instruct Sterling to stay high when LFC have the ball, waiting on the chance for City to regain possession, so that Sterling can get behind Milner, grab a long pass from a teammate, and run past Matip at a gallop. \u00a0I would ask KdB to drop deep in defense, and have him look immediately and constantly for the long, penetrative pass whenever City regain possession. I would start the fleet-footed combination of Mahrez and Jesus across the forward line with Sterling. And I would tell not only KdB, but also all of my defenders, including Ederson, to look first for the long ball in behind whenever City get the ball.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  I think this direct, quick-strike, over-the-top approach would maximize City\u2019s opportunities against LFC. Nonetheless, I\u2019m almost certain that Pep will not use it \u2014 at least not primarily. First, I expect Pep will start Grealish and Foden as his wide forwards, rather than Sterling and Mahrez. Both Grealish and Foden offer harrowing triple-threats as dribblers, playmakers, and scorers. And, Grealish is likely to create significant problems for Milner by drawing fouls and potential yellow cards with his exceptionally-tricky footwork. But, neither Grealish nor Foden offer the blazing speed that could best exploit LFC\u2019s vulnerability with runs in behind.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  City will make SOME long passes tomorrow, and I\u2019d wager that one or two of those few long passes will create substantial trouble for LFC. But City\u2019s primary offensive approach is likely to be the same as it always is \u2014 maximize possession, and use short, quick passes, accompanied by constant movement in precise combinations. City\u2019s quality will also likely cause LFC some significant problems using this patient approach, but that approach will need to overcome LFC\u2019s defensive strength, rather than exploiting LFC\u2019s weakness.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  I think Pep will be far more interested in stifling LFC tomorrow, as opposed to scoring goals. \u00a0I think Pep would be happy with a 0-0 draw at Anfield. I expect Pep to instruct his players to build their attack from the back by passing up the flanks, rather than going through the middle \u2014 a far more dangerous place to lose the ball. City’s center backs will split very wide on goal kicks or whenever Ederson has the ball. Ederson will pass sideways, or even backward to his wide CBs, and they will then look to push the ball patiently forward while avoiding the center third of the pitch. That is, I believe City will avoid the central section if you divide the pitch into three segments using vertical lines. They will use a combination of short passes up the flank, while sprinkling in a few long diagonal passes. And these long diagonals are one spot where Pep\u2019s tactics COULD exploit an LFC vulnerability. But, more often, City\u2019s passing will be ponderous and boring. Using this conservative approach, City will rarely have the ball in dangerous spots. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  I expect LFC to start the same group who started against Porto, except that Firmino may start in place of Jota. Curtis Jones was my Man of the Match in mid-week, and he also scored a magnificent goal last weekend against Brentford. He\u2019s earned another start. \u00a0Indeed, I suspect that Naby Ke\u00efta has again found his way into the manager\u2019s doghouse (more on that theory next week, along with my shifting feelings on the subject of Mr. Ke\u00efta). If I\u2019m right about Naby, then CuJo is even more cemented in LFC\u2019s lineup than the youngster’s recent performances would already indicate.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  James Milner, despite his weaknesses, provides the best option at right back, and he even appears to be enjoying himself in that role. Klopp took Milner off relatively early in the second half against Porto, suggesting that Klopp wants Milner to be ready to start against City.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  Firmino should be preferred to Jota, in my view, because he is a better presser, and also effectively gives us an extra midfielder. Midfield is the area where Pep\u2019s teams typically dominate with overloads (although I expect that City’s typical overloaded central midfield approach will be less on display tomorrow, as Pep will want to reduce risk by keeping the ball more on the flanks). As you know, I also like Jota\u2019s ability to change the match from the bench. However, Firmino has looked good as a substitute in both of the last two matches.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  I expect a low-scoring match. \u00a0Both sides are capable of moments of magic from individual play, and both sides can, at any moment, create passing combinations that open up the opposition defense to score a magnificent \u201cteam goal.\u201d But both sides are very strong defensively, and both will be VERY cognizant of how the opposition can hurt them.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  I\u2019ll predict that we kiss our sister.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  LFC 1 – City 1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Early season battles against top rivals always feel bigger than they are.\u00a0The reality is that only three points are at stake, as in every league match.\u00a0The reality is that win, lose, or draw, the title race will still very much be on.\u00a0The reality is that it\u2019s too early in the season to know whether these particular points will be meaningful …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"WB4WB4WP_MODE":"","WB4WP_PAGE_SCRIPTS":"","WB4WP_PAGE_STYLES":"","WB4WP_PAGE_FONTS":"","WB4WP_PAGE_HEADER":"","WB4WP_PAGE_FOOTER":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[17,14,18,9,36,23],"class_list":["post-127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-match-previews","tag-lfc","tag-liverpool-fc","tag-liverpool-football-club","tag-man-city","tag-manchester-city","tag-premier-league","entry entry-center"],"yoast_head":"\n