If West Ham win tomorrow, they will pass LFC in the Premier League table.
So far, West Ham have had a very nice season. They sit fourth in the table, with their only defeats coming to Man United and Brentford. They had a nice 4-1 win in the second match of the season against Leicester City (which had a red card). They recently eked out a 1-0 win against Spurs. They also managed a win (on penalties) against Man City in the League Cup — a competition that Man City had won four consecutive times.
West Ham’s underlying xG numbers indicate that their performances have basically matched their results. They deserve their current fourth place status.
The fivethirtyeight.com algorithm says that West Ham has a 43% probability of either a draw (21%) or a win (22%) against LFC tomorrow. My anecdotal sample of Liverpool fan media indicates that many LFC fans would give West Ham a better chance of winning than that.
But, this will be West Ham’s first Premier League match this season against either Liverpool, Man City, or Chelsea. They have yet to be tested.
No doubt that Liverpool’s coaching staff and footballers will treat this contest and opponent with great seriousness. But I am not as concerned as I hope they are. Call me dubious. I’m dubious about the likelihood that West Ham will be able to pose a real threat to the Relentless Reds.
West Ham play in a 4-2-3-1 formation in possession, which shifts to a traditional 4-4-2 when they defend. In defense, they play a solid, well-organized mid-block press. When they have the ball, they are a bit ponderous. Their passing is low-tempo and relatively unimaginative.
West Ham pose their biggest threats in transition and, to a lesser extent, with set pieces. Striker Michail Antonio, with his combination of skill, intelligence, speed, and strength, is capable of scoring in a number of ways. And, their other attackers are all capable of a bit of magic, given some time and space. They have great height — their two central midfielders measure 6’1” (Declan Rice) and 6’4” (Tomas Soucek) — but they have decent pace at every position as well. While West Ham has one excellent player — Antonio — the rest of their players are good, but rarely good enough to play for LFC. Meanwhile, while their manager is solid, he’s also a bit of a joke among Liverpool faithful. As we’ve discussed before, David Moyes can’t beat Liverpool.
I am suffering from the recency bias of our unexpected (to me) annihilation of Atletico in mid-week. I believe we will crush West Ham.
If LFC manage to win or draw, they will break the modern-day club record for most consecutive games in all competitions without a loss — 26. Most impressively, the first 10 undefeated games in that run came at the end of the disastrous campaign last season.
Tomorrow, we are likely to see our first-choice midfield starting together for the first time this season. Fabinho, Henderson, and Thiago. They’ve spent at least a few minutes on the pitch together, but, if they all start tomorrow, that will be a first.
That said, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is our only senior central midfielder available tomorrow other than the aforementioned top-choice three. Curtis Jones is out with a scratched eye. Milner and Keïta both have hamstring problems. And Elliott is still recovering from a broken leg.
Among the forwards, Firmino joined the hamstrung crew — and apparently his hamstring injury is more severe. It will probably be close to the New Year before we see Bobby again.
In defense, by contrast, Klopp is spoiled for choice, and it will be interesting to see who he chooses. Trent, Alisson, and VVD are automatic. Robbo is ALMOST automatic. But Robbo’s backup performed better against Atletico than Robbo has over his last several appearances. And, Robbo is about to go play two matches for Scotland, where he will likely play 180 minutes as captain giving everything he has emotionally, mentally, and physically. It would not be crazy at all for Klopp to give Tsimikas another start. But, in his press conference yesterday Klopp shrugged off a question that headed in that direction, and indicated that Robbo is the best left back in the world. That may be right. And, that response certainly hints that Robertson will start tomorrow.
But, that still leaves the last spot — the right center back position — up for grabs. As I predicted, Matip started mid-week. And, Matip played great, as he has done in pretty much every game this season. Matip has made very few mistakes, and he makes a lot of great plays. But, over the last couple of league matches, the starting nod has gone to Ibou Konaté. He’s bigger and faster than Matip. He’s also tremendously skilled, and he’s excellent in the air. But, compared to Matip, he’s far less experienced and more likely to make a costly error.
With West Ham’s height and relatively strong threat from set pieces, Konaté makes a bit more sense than he might otherwise. And, as I’ve previously pointed out, I believe Konaté’s skill set is generally better-suited to playing the super-high defensive line that Klopp prefers.
I think Ibou starts tomorrow.
Lineup:
Up the mighty, Relentless Reds.
West Ham 0 – LFC 3
