The PL title is fading farther into the distance. Man City continues to pull away, and LFC have not played well for quite some time. Currently, the fivethirtyeight.com algorithm gives LFC an 11% chance. That feels too generous, from my vantage point.
LFC are winless in their last three PL matches. That streak coincides with the time during which Thiago Alcântara has been unavailable. I believe this things are closely related.
As we learned last season, Klopp has built a system that walks a knife’s edge. If the system’s balance is skewed by an absence or poor performance in one or more key positions, then the whole thing functions far less fluently.
Thiago has been a key performer for LFC this season, and we have functioned far less well when he has been out of the lineup.
Because English sports journalists continue to be incompetent when it comes to providing meaningful updates about player’s injuries, I have very little idea when Thiago will again be available. But it won’t be tomorrow. Last week a rumor circulated that he would miss the remainder of the season. One of the journos actually asked him directly whether that rumor was true, and Klopp squarely denied it. The reporter then followed up by asking whether a corollary rumor — that Thiago would be out until March — was true. Klopp denied that as well. Klopp said Thiago’s rehabilitation work has begun, but gave no clear indication of when he will be back. So — hopefully before March, is what I take from that. I’ll go one step further: I expect Thiago will play when we line up against Inter Milan in the Champions League on Feb. 16. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does not start before then.
So, tomorrow we’re again without Thiago. And, we’re without Naby Keïta, and without Harvey Elliott. Against Arsenal, Klopp started Henderson, Milner, and Fabinho. That combination showed very little creativity, spark, or any meaningful threat against a packed defense. Tomorrow we will face another packed defense (albeit one that also carries a legitimate counterattacking threat). So, we should NOT, in my opinion, start Milner, Hendo, and Fabs together again for this one.
I fully expect that one of Curtis Jones or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will start against Brentford. Since Jones was the first sub utilized on Thursday, and he looked relatively good, compared to the duds around him, I’ll guess that Jones starts tomorrow.
Brentford gave us big problems this fall. They are clever, and they are also brave. They play a tight, deep defense, but they also take big risks by keeping two forwards high up the pitch, and by committing lots of men forward for set pieces. Brentford will, I’m sure, try more of the same tomorrow. That tactical approach, in my opinion, has long been the best blueprint for beating LFC. And it’s probably even a better formula for success at the moment, while we’re missing key folks.
However, none of our guys had faced Brentford in the fall. And, Brentford were playing that match in front of a very raucous home crowd. Anfield should be a different story. The players will know what to expect — not just because of scouting reports, but because they’ve experienced it themselves in a live match. I believe we will be much more ready this time around.
I expect only a few changes for the Reds. Jones or AOC for Milner. Possibly Tsimikas for Robbo. And that’s probably it. Origi is apparently available for this one, but I expect him to be on the bench. I do hope (and, to a lesser extent, expect) that Jota will be moved back to his more-favored spot on the left side, and Minamino will be on the right. Jones or AOC could start up front rather than in midfield, but I doubt it.
My guess at our lineup:
This one should have far fewer fireworks than the 3-3 draw at their place. I expect another fairly disjointed attacking display from Liverpool, and I also expect us to be well-drilled to defend against their counters.
I’ll guess:
LFC 1 – Brentford 0
