The Champions League is upon us once again!
I watched Inter some today. They press. They like to have the ball and work hard to get it back. When pressed themselves, they try to play out from the back (I hope they stick with that one).
Inter are the defending Serie A champs, and currently sit in second place, only one point behind cross-town rivals AC Milan, with Inter holding a game in hand.
This season, they are missing several key parts from their title-winning team of a year ago: manager Antonio Conte is at Spurs; striker Romelu Lukaku is at Chelsea; and playmaker Christian Eriksen is now at Brentford, after having his heart stop last summer while playing for Denmark. Eriksen now has an internal defibrillator.
But Inter still have plenty of talent, including a couple of old Premier League vets up front. Their best striker is probably the young Argentine Lautaro Martinez (NOT a PL vet). But Martinez usually starts alongside Edin Dzeko. When you started watching Liverpool, Dzeko was the extremely talented backup to Sergio Agüero at Manchester City. Since then, Dzeko has had some very productive seasons in Serie A for both Roma and Inter.
Beside Lautaro and Dzeko, Inter also feature Alexis Sánchez. Yes, THAT Alexis Sánchez. The same guy who started alongside Lionel Messi in the best football team I’ve ever seen – Pep Guardiola’s Barça. The same guy who tore up the Premier League for a couple of seasons at Arsenal. And the same guy who totally tanked after Arsenal sold him to Manchester United (go, Alexis!). He doesn’t play a ton for Inter, but Sánchez has still scored six goals in 17 appearances so far this year.
Inter play with three center backs, and their first-choice left CB is out. That’s potentially nice for us, since the LCB is the defender who will have primary responsibility for Mo Salah. Good luck with that. Inter will also be missing one of their key midfielders, Nicoló Barella.
I think that tomorrow, playing at home, Inter will be quite aggressive. They will press and harry us. They will send a slew of guys into the attack. I expect them to score at some point. But I also expect us to score more.
Liverpool are currently showing more ability to control matches after taking a lead. This was perhaps the defining characteristic of LFC’s title-winning squad in 2019-20. They rarely blew teams away, but they almost never let a team back into the game after taking a lead. With Fabinho, VVD, Matip, and Thiago all healthy, LFC’s ability to manage a lead should be back to those levels. Case in point: neither Leicester City nor Burnley truly mounted any challenge of significance after Liverpool scored against them in the last two matches. Indeed, both teams barely managed a shot after conceding.
Guessing the starting lineup remains difficult. I had predicted that Konaté would start against Burnley, but I’ll now guess that he starts this one. I think the rest of the defense will be the same, and I think Fabinho and Thiago will start in midfield. The third midfielder could be almost anyone. Henderson is certainly a strong candidate, although he played like crap against Burnley and picked up a minor injury (which he played through). Klopp says Hendo’s fit for tomorrow. I’ve been incorrectly predicting that Harvey Elliott would start in recent games, and I again think he’s a strong possibility for this one. Keïta played well against Burnley, and could get another chance. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain would surprise (but not shock) me, as would Curtis Jones or James Milner. So, I mainly think it’s between Hendo, Elliott, and Keïta, with Elliott being the slight favorite in my book.
In the forward line, I think Jota and Salah are shoo-ins. I think Mané probably also starts, although it could be Díaz. Given that Klopp has five subs available, I think he’ll use his bench liberally. I expect both Mané and Salah to exit before the game ends. Henderson will also likely be subbed (if he starts, that is), and probably Thiago as well. Matip or VVD might start and give way to Konaté at halftime.
This was a tough draw for LFC. Inter have a power rating (“SPI”) of 84.7 from fivethirtyeight.com, which is higher than any team in the Premier League other than City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. They are quite good. But we are better, and they are likely to employ tactics that play into Liverpool’s strengths.
Up the Mighty Reds!
Inter 1 – LFC 3
