Derby Day: Blood and Mud, But No Roses

They can have more enjoyable moments in a week of football than we’ve had in 30 years. Everton are the most miserable club to support in this country. A combination of us being unable to have any high whatsoever compounded by them getting football miracles on a weekly basis season after season.

— Anonymous Evertonian

Now that we’ve gotten the first football miracle of the season out of the way, we move on to the derby at Goodison Park. It’s the early game folks. Set the alarm. Put the coffeemaker on a timer. Tomorrow is Derby Day.

Familiar narratives surround this one, such as:

Everton are crap
Everton could be in a relegation battle
Everton’s manager is under pressure

On the other hand, this derby also brings some narratives we haven’t seen for a while (or ever), like:

Liverpool are struggling
Manchester City have already won the title
[in hushed whispers] Are Liverpool burned out, much like Klopp’s 2014-15 Dortmund team?
Liverpool are having another injury crisis
Is Liverpool’s new tactical system a bust?

Plus, both clubs just brought in a new midfielder (or, in Everton’s case, they actually brought back an old midfielder). Many folks love narratives about transfers — both those that happened, and those that didn’t.

I see no need to revisit the familiar narratives around Everton, which haven’t changed much. I will say only this: the transfer narrative might be an important one here. Everton just brought Idrissa Gana Gueye back from PSG. He played for Everton from 2016 to 2019. Gueye is now 32 years old, but he’s still a very good footballer who understands the Premier League well. He plays in the critical role of defensive midfielder. I expect that, if Gueye stays healthy this season, his presence will go a long way toward keeping Everton out of the relegation zone.

This is a Liverpool blog, so let’s talk about the Liverpool narratives.

Liverpool Are Struggling. But There’s Still Plenty of Reason for Optimism

By the mighty standards established by Klopp in recent seasons, Liverpool have struggled over their opening five games. Having said that, in the last two matches we have had a 9-nil victory and a legitimate Anfield football miracle victory. Not bad, right?

But, notwithstanding the last two dramatic (in very different ways) wins, LFC’s five games as a whole still represent a struggle. LFC have secured only eight points out of the available 15. We are already seven points behind Arsenal. More pertinently, we are five points behind Manchester City. LFC sit fifth in the table. Thus, Liverpool’s results so far demonstrate that there are problems.

Apart from the poor results, LFC’s performances have also provided cause for concern. To my eye, apart from the 9-nil win, Liverpool have looked less intense, less energetic, and have played slower-paced football. And, based on my Twitter feed, many LFC faithful would not be as generous as I just was.

But it’s important to understand that our perceptions of the world are often out of sync with reality. Do the underlying data confirm what my eyes have told me? Do those data also reflect that Liverpool’s performances across these opening five games have been poor?

The answer is “No.” The data DO show that Liverpool’s performances leave a lot of room for improvement. But describing those performances as “poor” is not really accurate. At least, they haven’t been poor in lots of important respects. And they certainly haven’t been poor across every game, or across the entirety of any game.

As I said, in my opinion the data about LFC’s performances thus far show lots of room for improvement. And, to be fair, Liverpool will probably need to max out on the performance scale across most or all of the rest of the season in order to beat a team like Manchester City to the title. Past seasons tell us this, and City’s performances in the season thus far underscore it.

But the data also give us reasons for optimism. I like optimism. So let’s talk about that.

Liverpool Are Creating Good Scoring Opportunities

Even after Liverpool’s first three matches, which were highly disappointing, Liverpool still ranked among the top three teams in the league in expected goals (xG). Remember, of the stats that are available to us non-professionals, xG (both xG created and xG allowed) provides the best shorthand for assessing a team’s performance.

Through five matches, Liverpool have created 10.1 expected goals (per fbref.com). That puts LFC slightly-behind Arsenal, which has 10.5 xG, and significantly behind Man City, which has 12.8. Intriguingly, Brentford and Brighton are tied for fourth and fifth in this category, with 7.8 xG.

Liverpool haven’t been quite as good defensively. Liverpool currently have conceded the fifth-lowest xG total, at 5.6. City top the league in this category as well, having conceded only 2.8 xG across five games. Arsenal, Spurs, and Brighton sit in 2nd-4th in this category.

As I’ve discussed in both of my last two posts, I believe Liverpool are still adjusting to a new tactical system. While I would say the team’s “intensity” has been down, I don’t mean that the team is less passionate or focused. One could reasonably interpret the players’ performances that way, and many have done so. But what I mean when I talk about the team having less intensity is that they have pressured the ball less effectively at key moments. This has allowed teams to open up Liverpool’s defense in transition, both because the opposition have had moments when they have had too much time to measure the right pass, and also because our defenders have been slower in getting to the right spots in the new system.

The New System Is Built For Darwin, And It Looks Like It’s Working For Him

I think this is good time to remind ourselves that this new tactical system has been built, in large part, specifically to benefit new signing Darwin Núñez. I suspect that this system will work quite well for Núñez. He has only played a grand total of 96 minutes so far, so it’s difficult to assess as of yet. But, so far Núñez is averaging 1.47 xG/90 minutes, which is a crazy total. The next-best xG/90 for LFC this season are Firmino and Carvalho, who are both at 0.55.

Núñez has not yet played enough minutes to qualify for the league leaders list in xG/90. But it’s noteworthy that the league leader in that category is, unsurprisingly, Man City’s Erling Haaland. Haaland currently sits at the ridiculous total of 1.52 xG/90. Haaland has accumulated more xG this season by himself (6.6) than nine Premier League teams have managed. The next-highest qualifying player in the xG/90 category is Fulham’s Aleksander Mitrović, at 0.89. But, at his current rate, Núñez is right on Haaland’s ridiculous, high-kicking Norwegian heels.

That brings us right back around to that whole optimism thing. With Núñez coming back, and the players looking more comfortable in the system over the last couple of matches, the optimist in me says LFC might be about to take off on the goal-scoring front.

Also, Diogo Jota came back into full team training yesterday. I believe this new tactical system, along with the presence of Núñez, will benefit Jota. And, that would be something. Speaking of xG/90, Diogo Jota led the Premier League in that category last season. If the new system and Núñez lift Jota above that level, Liverpool will be doing quite well.

But Not Everything Is Rosy

Of course, there are reasons to be pessimistic as well. When last we saw Darwin Núñez on the pitch, he did something really dumb, borne out of his own impulsiveness and competitive streak. More recently, during Wednesday’s dramatic match, we got photos of Darwin showing that same streak of impulsiveness OFF the pitch:

he's absolutely getting sent off against Everton too and I can't decide how much I love or hate it https://t.co/sCIXyL2l03

— nate (@natefc) September 1, 2022

There’s ZERO doubt in my mind that Everton manager Frank Lampard will be instructing his defenders to be abusing Núñez all game tomorrow, in the hopes of securing another red card. And, it seems like a reasonable goal for our opposition, doesn’t it?

On top of that, we’ve still got a lot of injuries, including the newly-injured skipper Jordan Henderson. Liverpool’s hamstrings have been snapping like dry twigs so far this season. Plus, we have one alleged “injury” — to Naby Keïta — that I believe is not an injury at all. Journalists have pushed hard on this point, and the club and Klopp have doubled down on the story that Keïta really picked up an injury the day before the Crystal Palace match. But I believe Keïta’s contract talks broke down, then he began demanding more playing time from Klopp. When Klopp didn’t give him that playing time, I think Naby quit on him and/or did something offensive enough that Klopp has basically suspended him.

Bear in mind, I’m totally speculating here. I’ve got no inside knowledge on this. But, for me the injury claim doesn’t add up. Look at Keïta’s past history of kicking up a fuss when he’s unhappy, Klopp’s history of intolerance with players who won’t follow his lead (ask Mamadou Sakho about that), and the lack of specificity about Naby’s supposed “injury.” I’m speculating, but this is at least an educated guess.

If I’m right that Klopp will be unwilling to play Keïta for the indefinite future, then this left a big gap in the midfield, which was already decimated by actual injuries.

Enter Arthur Melo. Arthur won’t play tomorrow, and I’m running out of time to finish this post. So, I won’t say much about him here. I’ll just say that, under the circumstances, this loan is a relatively low-risk move by LFC that could pay off big. At worst, Arthur will be a functional warm body who gives us minutes on the pitch. At best, we’ve got someone who passes nearly as well as Thiago.

What Will Happen Tomorrow?

I don’t have a very high regard for Frank Lampard as a manager. I think he lacks nuance. His tactics swing too far toward one extreme or the other. Often, as in Lampard’s time at Chelsea, his teams engage in an all-out attack that leaves them far too vulnerable at the back. At Everton, his teams often “park the bus,” leaving themselves only one swift winger (Anthony Gordon) as an attacking outlet. The more sophisticated schemes of managers like Antonio Conte and Thomas Tuchel seem well beyond Lampard. Both of those guys set up their teams in ways that make them extremely solid defensively, while still giving them plenty of opportunities to build dangerous attacks and counters. But again, those tactics involve, complexity, nuance, and subtlety — not Lampard’s strengths.

Tomorrow, I expect Everton will park the bus for most of the game. However, I think Lampard MIGHT instruct his team to push really hard for a goal at the start of the match. After all, Liverpool have given up the first goal in 8 of their last 9 league matches. Lampard’s got enough nuance in him to ask his team to attack for 25 minutes, then drop back to protect the goal if the game is tied or Everton are leading.

I’m hoping that we will start fast for a change, as happened last Saturday against Bournemouth. Ironically, if Lampard pushes for an early goal, this will probably help us in that regard.

The lineup for tomorrow is a difficult call. This is our third match this week, and we’ve got another mid-week match coming up in the Champions League on Wednesday. We need to protect our non-injured players as best we can, because they are currently a precious commodity.

In defense, I would guess that Tsimikas may start. Robertson may be nursing some kind of fitness issue, based on the fact that Klopp has subbed him out of several matches early. This may just be the sports science team’s way of managing Robbo’s fitness across this weird season. But either way, it makes me think that Tsimikas will get a start either tomorrow or Wednesday. Matip is back, and he might retake his starting spot. But I’ll guess that Joe Gomez stays put. He’s been quite good, and I think Klopp will want him to keep that rhythm. Both Matip and Gomez probably deserve to start.

The midfield is usually difficult to call, but the options are currently quite limited. Henderson is out, which likely means that either Milner or Curtis Jones takes the left-sided #8 spot. I’ll guess it’s Milner. Fabinho and Elliott will probably keep their spots, although I wouldn’t be shocked if Fabio Carvalho started in Elliott’s place.

The forward line for tomorrow is equally a mystery. I would guess that Núñez will come in for Firmino, because Bobby has been injury-prone for the last several years, and he’s started two matches this week already. But, Klopp might want to save Núñez for the end of the match, especially given the emotional intensity of the derby. Playing Darwin from the start increases the risk of a red card. Mo Salah is almost a lock, but Carvalho might fill in for Díaz at the start. That’s my guess.

So, my guess for the start looks like this: