A European Night at Anfield.
Another ACTUAL elimination game.
The most important game of the season.
The Reds walk into this one with an almost-safe 2-0 lead. This lead will create a few interesting dynamics for this game.
For one, depending on which team scores first, the FEELING of the match will alter in far more dramatic fashion than it typically would after an early goal. If LFC scores first, then the “cup tie” will be effectively over. All of the intensity will immediately drain out of the match, and both the Reds and the crowd will simply cruise into the next round from there. (N.B. – “Cup tie” is the strange phrase that the Brits use to describe a tournament matchup. In this instance, the “cup tie” is comprised of BOTH of the two legs between Inter and LFC. Thus, an announcer might use the following description at the end of the first leg if one team had won that match 4-0: “Barring a miracle, this tie is already over.”) By contrast, if Inter scores first, then the intensity of the match will immediately dial itself up to 11. At that point, the power of Anfield should be apparent.
A second interesting dynamic created by the current scoreline relates to tactics. Inter will be forced to play aggressively from the beginning. This means that they will have to leave spaces into which Liverpool can attack. Many managers, if blessed with this lead, might sit back and try to pick off their aggressive opponents on the counter. But I’ll be very surprised if LFC starts that way tonight. I expect Jürgen to push his boys to gegenpress the crap out of Inter from the first whistle, in an effort to get that first goal and send the match into cruise control.
Since the first leg three weeks ago, Inter have been struggling to score. They lost a league match to Sassuolo 2-0, then slogged through two consecutive nil-nil draws. However, this past weekend Inter had the good fortune to face bottom-of-Serie-A Salernitana, and Inter took advantage to bust out of its scoring slump, 5-0. Despite the bad run, Inter still sit second in the Serie A table, two points behind AC Milan with a game in hand.
Liverpool have slogged through two matches since expending a crap-ton of energy to beat Chelsea in the League Cup Final. LFC were not close to their best in either of the two matches. Indeed, the Reds’ performance against West Ham was sufficiently unconvincing that, in the space of seven days, the media narrative went from “the title race is ON!” to “Liverpool were lucky to win, and City are still strong favorites to win the title.” These two narratives aren’t quite mutually exclusive, but they do send starkly different messages. This should be no surprise. We can always count on fans and media to ask “what have you done for me lately?”
Trying to look at the state of LFC a bit more objectively (but still through my own deeply red-tinted glasses), I think we’re right where we need to be. The West Ham game was too close for comfort, but it was never going to be easy. We cruised through the FA Cup tie against Norwich, which was very nice, if not all that entertaining.
Now, we have this match, which I would hope could serve as a way to get the team back to playing with both intensity AND fluency. Hopefully, the intense part of the match will not last too long. If we can manage to score that first goal, everyone can take deep breaths, step on the ball, avoid injuries, and walk into the Champions League quarterfinals. On the other hand, if Inter score first, this match will hopefully serve as another tempering fire that will not kill us, but will only make the team stronger.
Because we played on Saturday and go into this with a two-goal lead, I would be tempted to rotate the team relatively heavily. But I don’t expect Klopp to take that approach. He will rotate some, and I expect him to use four or five subs in the match. But I think he will start with a very high-powered first eleven.
I’m confident Jota will start this one, and I suspect that Díaz will go to the bench. Firmino has started training with the team, but Klopp made it sound as if Bobby’s nonetheless still unlikely to be available today. Thus, I think our forward line will be Mané, Jota, and Salah. Mo needs a goal. He’s getting anxious for one, after missing three consecutive one-on-one chances over the last few games. He’s got to be mentally and emotionally fatigued, after his exertions in the African Cup of Nations, after which he jumped directly back into the Grinder for the Reds. If I were in charge, I would NOT start Salah today, and would instead go with Minamino or AOC. But I fully expect Salah to start.
Midfield, as always, is the most difficult to predict. Henderson started three matches last week, and so I would expect him to be on the bench today. Thiago is back in training, and I expect him to be on the bench today as well. I would thus pencil in Fabinho as the starting defensive mid. On the left, I think Klopp will be tempted to start Naby for a second straight game, as I think Keïta’s understated performances over his last few appearances are exactly what Klopp has been looking for from him. He’s kept the ball, tracked back wonderfully on defense, and still manages to push the team forward in key moments. Having said that, there were some questions about Naby’s fitness before the West Ham match, and the sports science team knows that it must ALWAYS be wary about pushing that fragile body too far. For that reason, I don’t think Naby will start again. That leaves the most likely choices for left-sided central mid as James Milner and Curtis Jones. Personally, I’d rather that Jones started, and there’s a good chance that he will. But, I think it’s more likely that Klopp will instead pick the leadership and steadiness of James Milner. On the right, assuming Henderson does not start, the main candidates are Elliott and Oxlade-Chamberlain. Here, I think you could almost flip a coin. Because I think Klopp will be pushing for an early goal, I’ll guess that he’ll go with the more creative Elliott.
At the back, Joël Matip is highly likely to return, after recovering from his illness at the weekend. I would start Tsimikas just to keep Robbo’s legs strong. But I think Klopp will go with our preferred back four of Robbo, VVD, Matip, and Trent.
So, my predicted lineup is:
If I’m right about the starting forward line, it’s possible that Mané, rather than Jota, will play through the middle. But, frankly, those two will interchange so often it probably doesn’t make too much difference. There is one tactical scenario where they are NOT interchangeable, however. If our midfield is having trouble holding onto the ball and needs more support, Mané should take on the “Bobby role” and drop deep through the middle to help keep and distribute the ball. Jota cannot do that effectively.
I’ll guess that we get the first goal, and Inter get a consolation at some point.
LFC 1 – Inter 1
Up the Reds! On to the quarter-finals! To get ahead of ourselves, I’ll tease that the quarterfinals draw will be on Friday, March 18, and will be VERY interesting, if we manage to advance past Inter today. More on that later, assuming we get through.
