Darwin Núñez has arrived in Liverpool. I suggest you sit back and enjoy his stay for a very long time.
The Whirlwind Facing West Ham
On Wednesday against West Ham, the Anfield crowd got its first look at Liverpool’s new signing in full flow. And what a look it was.
In just 57 minutes, Núñez scored the winning goal — a towering header bulleted into the ground and bounced into the top corner. He also awed the crowd with two thunderbolts near the edge of the penalty area with his non-dominant left foot. The first was (barely) tipped over the bar by the keeper. The second struck the post.
The subsequent rebound fell to Núñez, who (of course) shot yet again. This time we witnessed another side Darwin’s play — his overeagerness. When that rebound came to him, Núñez had time and space to take a touch and slot one calmly into the bottom corner. Instead, he lashed a first-time volley that went nowhere near the net.
Changing the Hearts and Minds of Liverpool’s Faithful
Núñez’s match-winning display Wednesday changed the minds of many Liverpool faithful, who had been harshly critical of his start to the season. In reality, however, Darwin has been performing well throughout his short time at the club.
Yes, his decision-making has been terrible at times. First, in just his second match, he head-butted a center back, earning a red card and a three-game suspension. Then, off the bench on Sunday, he found himself charging toward the Man City goal in a three-on-one break with both Jota and Salah ready to receive an easy square pass for a tap-in. Instead, Darwin kept his head down and tried to go alone, turning a very-high probability scoring chance into a bad one.
And, yes, Man City’s new striker, Erling Haaland, has demonstrated that he’s a better player than Núñez (and every other striker in the world) at the moment.
But… our new man Núñez has still regularly brought the heat for Liverpool in his brief stint so far. And the data show that what he’s done for the Reds is completely in line with what he did last year at Benfica. This suggests that we’re not seeing a mere statistical blip — this is sustainable.
So what kind of player do LFC have here?
Núñez is a monster. Please let me explain why.
First Comes the Lightning
On Wednesday night Darwin broke the Premier League’s “top speed” record with a 38 km/hr sprint.
Let’s start by putting Núñez’s speed in context, by comparison with other players.
The Premier League didn’t start collecting top speed data until 2014. Before last night, Kyle Walker set the record in 2020 (37.8 kph) (Núñez was at 38.0). As of October 2017, Leroy Sanė recorded the top PL speed at 35.48 kph.
Last season now-former Chelsea CB Antonio Rüdiger posted the fastest sprint of the season, reaching a speed of 36.7 kph – VERY impressive, but still well below Núñez at 38.0.
Notable current world football speedsters slower than Núñez include: Erling Haaland (36 km/h); Kylian Mbappe (36.08); Mo Salah and Adama Traore (36.6).
The more I think about Núñez’s raw speed, the more overwhelming it is. I find myself thinking back to the many times that Liverpool has faced Adama Traore with Wolves. Traore always terrifies me with his ability to just blow by everybody into the clear.
And I’m not the only one. Indeed, there have been matches against Wolves in which Liverpool has adjusted its entire defense to deal with Traore’s pace. But here’s the thing — as a footballer, Adama Traore is not even in the same league with Darwin Núñez. Núñez is FAR more likely to score or create a chance for a teammate than Traore is. And Darwin is actually FASTER than him.
And Then There’s the Thunder
Next, let’s talk about Darwin Núñez’s other attributes, in addition to his pace.
First, Darwin is quite tall. He stands at 6’2” (188 cm). This puts him two inches above the average PL defender, and about even with the average center back. As his goal Wednesday illustrates, he’s also a great leaper and header of the ball. Just look at the photo at the top of the page. At the point when that picture was snapped, he’d already headed the ball, and was on his way down. But his feet still appear to be three and a half feet off the ground. Holy crap.
Last season at Benfica Darwin scored six headed goals for Benfica. Across Europe’s Top 5 leagues, only two men scored more. This season, he has already found the net with a header for both LFC and Uruguay. And, if you count the Community Shield, he got another one there.
Next, let’s talk about Núñez’s finishing skills with both feet. He’s right-footed. But did you notice when he struck the post Wednesday after chesting the ball down at the edge of the box, he hit it with his left foot? He used that same “weak” foot when firing the rope that Fabiański had to tip over the bar.
Last season Núñez scored five times with his left foot, and 17 times with his right foot, to go along with six headers.
What Do the Stats Show?
For nerds like me who like the xG stats, Darwin shows up in a big way. He led Portugal’s Primeira Liga last year in xG/90: (0.85). For context, last season Salah led the PL in xG/90 at 0.71.
This season, Núñez’s current xG/90 is 0.87. This is either a bit above or just below Erling Haaland’s current xG/90, depending on which xG system you look at. Darwin is either first or second in the PL in this stat at the moment.
But if you just prefer good old-fashioned goals, Núñez has still shown up. His current goals/90 is 0.79. Last year Salah and Vardy led the league at 0.75. If Darwin manages to play 2,200 minutes in the Premier League this season — which is a relatively modest goal — at this rate he would score about 24 Premier League goals.
All of this gets lost a bit because of the crazy season Erling Haaland is having. He’s now 1.61 goals/90. It appears he will shatter the PL scoring record. No doubt, Haaland is something special, and is currently better than Núñez.
Haaland may stay better than Núñez. But both players appear poised to become legends, barring injuries. Both have rare combinations of height, speed, and finishing skill. They are two of a very rare kind – faster versions of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, one of the best strikers of the modern era.
How Does Darwin Affect Defenses?
As a poker player, I try to follow the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. Basically, this means that I try to act in exactly the way that my opponent would NOT want me to act.
Darwin Núñez is like a personification of that fundamental theorem for a footballer. His presence creates panic.
How does Darwin affect defenses? The short answer is: he terrifies them.
First, a defense facing Núñez has to make a threshold decision about where to set its defensive line. If they push too high, he will run behind them into space. But if they fall too deep, he will be in position to win headers and get other scoring opportunities from “posting up” in and around the penalty area.
Next, when Núñez plays for Liverpool, defenses have to follow him when he makes all of those lightning sprints off the ball. With someone that fast, they MUST focus on keeping near him. But that level of defensive focus on Darwin means that Liverpool’s other forwards, including Salah, Firmino, (and when fit) Jota and Díaz, have FAR more space to operate.
Tactically, Núñez’s speed stretches the defense vertically. When he makes a run behind the defense and takes defenders with him, that leaves more space for players like Firmino, Salah, Elliott, and Carvalho to operate in-between the defensive lines. Give those guys time and space a few yards outside the box, and they will carve open your defense over and over again.
This “vertical stretching” of the defense gives Liverpool an entirely different tactical dimension. Although Salah, Mané, and Díaz are all fast, they have rarely operated centrally. As wide forwards, their opportunities to stretch defenses vertically are mostly limited to counterattacks. But, from a central position, Núñez can use his acceleration and raw pace to stretch the defense even when Liverpool have slowly built up in possession, and the defense is sitting deep. And, to be clear, as fast as those other guys are, Núñez is quite a bit faster. That’s huge.
What Will Happen Tomorrow Against Nottingham Forest?
Unfortunately, we might not get to see Núñez tomorrow. I’m confident Klopp is dying to start him again, especially in light of the injuries to Díaz and Jota. Liverpool need a combination of four attacking midfielders and forwards to play in their new formation, and we don’t have a lot of attackers to spare.
But Darwin came off on Wednesday night because he felt tightness in his hamstring, and neither Klopp nor the medical staff will want Darwin to risk a serious hamstring injury if he’s not completely fit.
I’m hoping he’s fine and we get to see him, but I won’t be surprised if we don’t.
Our opponent tomorrow comes in as the Premier League’s bottom team. Nottingham Forest brought in a ridiculous number of transfers in the summer, and the resulting chemistry experiment has failed so far. They have scored only seven goals, while conceding 23. Yikes.
Without doubt, Forest will park the bus against Liverpool, and hope that they can create some chances on counterattacks and set pieces.
If Liverpool fall back into the habit of conceding the first goal, the crowd tomorrow will be VERY loud. They could boost their boys to pull off a miracle.
But that shouldn’t happen.
What About the Lineup?
As this is Liverpool’s third match in the last six days, we need to rotate where we can. But our options are a bit limited by injuries.
At the back, Robertson will come back into the lineup after Tsimikas started Wednesday. But, with Matip and Konaté still unavailable, Gomez and VVD will roll out there again. So will Trent, who at least got a rest (due to injury) against Man City.
In central midfield, we will likely see Henderson and Fabinho, since Thiago has started the last two. Unfortunately, Fabinho looked like crap again versus West Ham, after putting in a very good performance against Man City. Hopefully, Fabinho’s underperformance last time was not a sign that he and Henderson are a poor fit in the two-man midfield. I guess we’ll see.
The four-man forward line is very difficult to call.
Salah is nearly a lock to start, even though he started both of the last two. He’s a fitness machine, and Klopp put him on the bench against Rangers a week-and-a-half ago. Given his extraordinary resistance to injury, the medical staff is unlikely to force Klopp to sit him again this soon.
I also fully expect to see Harvey Elliott start, since he was on the bench on Wednesday. With Elliott playing the right-sided role, that means Salah will be in the middle.
But it’s far more difficult to predict who will play on the left and behind (or alongside) Salah. As I said, I’m sure Klopp would love to start Núñez, but no one will want to risk him if his hamstring is not right. Firmino has been playing extremely well, but is injury-prone, and he started both of the last two. I’ll be surprised if he starts tomorrow.
On the left, Carvalho could start again, but I suspect that we will see Curtis Jones in that spot. He got his first action of the season in that position as a sub on Wednesday. In the absence of Jota and Díaz, this is a great opportunity to get more minutes under Curtis’ belt.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keïta are both back in training, but Klopp indicated in his press conference that neither one of them are quite ready for action.
If Núñez is unavailable, I’ll guess that Firmino starts, but will come out of the match relatively early. Alternatively, Carvalho might start as a #10, flitting about between the lines behind Salah.
Thus, my guess at a lineup looks like this:
Nottingham Forest 0 – Liverpool 3
Up the Mighty Reds!
