A Lost Identity
“Our identity is intensity.”
From the moment Jürgen Klopp arrived at Anfield in 2015, he immediately began creating a new identity for the team and the club. After playing 81 minutes in his first match under Klopp, Adam Lallana comes off the pitch for a substitute. With a dazed expression, he moves to walk by the new manager, who extends his arms for a hug. Exhausted, Lallana simply collapses into Klopp’s hug. Lallana ran his legs off for the manager and for the team. The Reds weren’t great that day, but they were certainly far more intense than they had been under Klopp’s predecessor.
Since then, the Reds under Klopp have cultivated that intensity. And that intensity is measurable. For Klopp’s intense gegenpressing approach to succeed, the Reds must outrun their opponents. And year after year, Klopp’s teams are either at or near the top of the league in two key running stats: high-intensity runs, and sprints.
As the team has aged over the last several years, they have covered less total ground per match (as measured by the distance covered stat), but they have still managed to outsprint almost all of their opponents. Until this season.
The chart above from The Times (originally created by the Anfield Index Under Pressure folks) tells a grim story. As recently as last season, the Reds were third in the Premier League for sprints, and fourth for high-intensity runs. This season (as of January 4), they are 16th in sprints and 11th in high-intensity runs .
Not coincidentally, the Reds are also ninth in the league table.
Sports Science: The Root of the Rot?
Why are the Reds both covering less distance and also making fewer sprints and high-intensity runs?
To my eyes, the evidence strongly points toward a problem with the sports science and fitness staff at the club.
In addition to the running stats falling through the floor, the Reds have also lost a host of players this season to muscle injuries. Caoimhin Kelleher, Virgil van Dijk, Joël Matip, Calvin Ramsay, Stefan Bajcetic, Curtis Jones, James Milner, Thiago, Naby Keïta, Arthur Melo, Roberto Firmino, and Diogo Jota have all missed games do to muscle injuries this season. Some have been calf injuries, many have been hamstring problems, and there have been a few groin issues.
This season, the Reds have missed more player-games to injury than in any season in their Premier League history.
Last season, as the Reds were pushing to win an unprecedented four trophies, they ended up playing every possible match. The Reds ran their legs off trying to win on all fronts. For example, at age 31, Jordan Henderson made 57 appearances last season — more games than Arsenal had as a team last year.
Then, the preseason got compressed at both ends. The team played all the way through until the Champions League Final at the end of May, and then the new season started early to accommodate the mid-season World Cup.
In this compressed preseason, the Reds began with a tour of Asia, which interrupted their fitness work with long flights, jet lag, commercial appearances, and unnecessary friendly matches.
With the players gassed from the prior season, and the compressed preseason interfered with by an Asian tour, the sports science and fitness staff had a very tough job. They had to design a preseason fitness routine that would get players ready for the upcoming season, despite all of these obstacles.
I have no idea what choices the staff made for this preseason. But, based on hindsight, I’m quite comfortable in saying that those choices have turned out to be wrong.
The Brighton Match As a Microcosm
After last week’s 3-0 loss to Brighton, Jürgen Klopp described the match as the worst of his managerial career, which will soon span 1,000 games. And, there’s no doubt — it was very, very bad.
The Reds have lacked energy to run and press intensely throughout this season. Some fans and pundits have credited this to lack of effort, but it’s almost certainly down to lack of legs. The Reds’ problems include lack of confidence, but the stats from the Brighton match tell a story of a team that was TRYING to create pressure. It’s just that they failed miserably at it.
Anfield Index’s Under Pressure podcast has been collecting pressing data from each of Liverpool’s matches over the past six-plus seasons. In the Brighton match, they found:
- Liverpool’s total number of presses against Brighton was the fourth-highest total ever, across those six-plus seasons. The only three matches with higher totals were all against Manchester City.
- Liverpool’s presses failed either to dispossess the opposition or force them backward 84 times. That was 17 more failures than the team has EVER had.
- Eight of those 84 failed presses led directly to Brighton shots. This too was a record. 75 percent of Brighton’s overall xG came from LFC’s failed pressures.
- The team overall had a 70.9% pressing efficiency, which was the third-worst percentage ever.
- Brighton had the fourth-most touches of any opponent versus a Klopp-managed LFC team. The three games where teams had more touches all involved Manchester City.
When Liverpool press but fail, they open up huge gaps for the attacking team. At least one defender, and sometimes two or three of them, are left far out of position after a pressing attempt fails.
In this match, judged by Liverpool’s attempted presses, Liverpool played as intensely as they ever have under Klopp. But those players simply don’t currently have the physical ability to execute that type of intense pressing in an effective way.
The biggest culprits include Henderson and Fabinho. Henderson failed almost half of his pressing attempts in this match. Those two midfielders comprise two-thirds of Klopp’s most senior, preferred starting midfield.
From here on out, I don’t want to see Henderson and Fabinho together in the same midfield, at least for a month or two.
I think that it’s possible, that given sufficient time off — and used relatively sparingly — either or both of Fabinho and Henderson could get back to the physical levels that they showed last season. Or at least I would bet they could come close to that. For the moment, however, their legs have deserted them. And without those legs in midfield, Klopp’s preferred high-intensity approach is a recipe for disaster.
The Wolves Match As Counterpoint
Tuesday against Wolverhampton in the FA Cup, Klopp changed his starting lineup dramatically. In midfield, he started 18-year-old Stefan Bajcetic and long-lost Naby Keïta beside Thiago. Up front, Gakpo played center forward, with youngsters Fabio Carvalho and Harvey Elliott flanking him. The back line was Tsimikas, Gomez, Konaté, and Milner. Kelleher played in goal.
Fresher, younger legs made a world of difference. I do not have pressing stats from the match. But to the eye, Liverpool’s pressure looked much, much better than it has at probably any point this season. Bajcetic played a huge role in that. The kid has enormous potential, and at this point he’s already a huge upgrade over either Henderson or Fabinho in a team attempting to play Jürgen Klopp football. Yes, he’s 18. Yes, he’s skinny. And, yes, he takes some unnecessary chances with the ball in dangerous areas.
But, by God, the energy the kid brings is incredible, and his ball skills are nothing to be sneezed at. He’s also very good at using his body to shield off opponents and turn into space.
I thought Naby Keïta had a relatively mediocre game, by his normal standards. But his performance was nonetheless head and shoulders above what we’ve seen from Henderson and Fabinho this season, especially when it came to pressing.
Thiago, surrounded by two other midfielders with legs, had more opportunity to focus on doing Thiago stuff.
If I were in charge, and all three of these midfielders remain fit over the next month or two (obviously, this is a very big “if”), I would start two out of three of them in every match.
Having young legs in the forward line also helped tremendously. I have criticized Harvey Elliott’s pressing as a midfielder. But, when he plays as a forward, he’s not required to provide nearly as much cover in dangerous areas of the pitch. As a forward Harvey can use his youthful energy to create problems for the other team, and his attacking instincts don’t leave huge gaps for the opposition to exploit. To be sure, Elliott is too slow to play the typical wide forward role in a Klopp system. Salah and Mané he is not. But, like many of the wingers/midfielders that Pep Guardiola uses, Elliott’s attacking midfielder skills still create a variety of opportunities for the team in attack, as his winning goal on Tuesday illustrated. Meanwhile, his pressing from the forward position was also a really big plus.
The same can be said for Fabio Carvalho. He was great when pressing Wolverhampton. Carvalho’s not particularly fast, but he’s quick, and he can run for days. That’s what we need, even if he gets muscled off the ball far too easily when in possession.
So What Now?
Tomorrow we get Chelsea, which is in nearly as much disarray as we are. Both teams are stuck firmly in mid-table, and both teams have only 28 points.
Under new manager Graham Potter, the Blues are not as likely to sit back and cede possession to Liverpool as many of the past incarnations of Chelsea have. Liverpool should have some space into which the Reds can attack.
Liverpool are at home, and Darwin Núñez should be available, as he was back in full team training today. His presence alone dramatically increases the effectiveness of Liverpool’s attack. His speed melts the opposition’s shape.
But the big questions for the Reds, in my mind, are: a) who will Klopp play in midfield? and b) if Fabinho and Henderson play, will Klopp ask them to try to press aggressively?
As I said above, I would NOT play both Fabinho and Henderson at the same time. I WOULD choose one of them, alongside two of the trio that started against Wolves. If both of them start, we should NOT press aggressively.
I’m pretty confident that Klopp wants to press intensely. He wants Liverpool to retain the identity that has brought them so much success. But that makes me at least a bit worried that Klopp will persist in showing too much loyalty to Henderson and Fabinho. At least one of the pair should be on the bench over the coming weeks.
I don’t know what midfield to predict. If I were picking, I would rest Thiago, because he’s quite injury-prone when played too often. I would play Bajcetic at the six, have Keïta play as the left-sided eight, and Henderson as the right-sided eight. I would also be OK with Fabinho, Bajcetic (as an eight) and Thiago. Or even Henderson, Keïta, and Thiago — though that combination would be my least favorite among the ones I would consider.
My suggested midfield solution of Bajcetic, Keïta, and Henderson is far from perfect. Obviously, Naby is notorious for picking up injuries. Like Bajcetic, he’s also prone to giving away the ball in dangerous places. And, even with more legs around him, I’m unsure that Henderson can give us the intensity that we really need. But, I think it’s the best we can do under the circumstances. Bring in Thiago for Keïta or Hendo late in the match, and perhaps Fabinho for Bajcetic (although I would again reiterate that I’d prefer that Henderson and Fabinho not be on the pitch at the same time).
I think Gakpo probably needs a rest after starting three or four matches in a row. I would start Salah as center forward, play Núñez on the left, and give Elliott another chance to play as the right-sided forward.
In the back, reward Gomez and Konaté for their performances against Wolverhampton, and bring back the two regular starting fullbacks.
As always, I have a difficult time predicting what will happen. My guess:
Liverpool 2 – Chelsea 2
Up the Reds!
