Preview: Manchester City v. LFC

We’ve been in “every game is a cup final” mode for quite some time now. But this cup final is bigger than the others. I’m guessing there are few LFC fans who would be unwilling to trade this year’s League Cup win over Chelsea for a victory tomorrow. Some would probably also give up LFC’s chances in the FA Cup and Champions League as well.

This is the biggest Premier League match since the January 2019 contest between the same two teams at the Etihad.  That was one of the greatest Premier League games I’ve ever seen, except that it came out so very wrong. And, it ultimately decided the league.

Most of the narratives around this match have been told before. There’s Klopp vs. Guardiola, which the two of them have been asked about incessantly this week. They both heap praises upon each other, because they are both mostly honest men who love the game of football.  Talent recognize talent.

The “best two teams in the world” story is also an old one at this point. But, it doesn’t make it any less true. We need not rely on our biased judgment to tell us — both fivethirtyeight.com (Man City #1, LFC #2) and the ELO Club ratings (LFC #1, Man City #2) confirm what we see. Meanwhile, less sophisticated, but nonetheless powerful stats tell the same story.  In the Premier League since August 2018, Man City has gathered 338 points. LFC has 337. Chelsea have the next-highest total, with 264.  Chelsea are 73 points behind the top two — that’s a full season worth of points for a Top Four finisher in the league.

Despite the parity of these teams across the last four seasons, Man City has nonetheless controlled the matches at the Etihad. Since the start of the 2018-19 season, City have won by scores of 2-1 (that previously-mentioned Clash of the Titans in January 2019) and 4-0 (during LFC’s hangover period after clinching the 2020 title). Last year’s game at City was a 1-1 draw. Klopp has won at the Etihad only twice – in the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinal in April 2018, and in November 2015, just after he took the job at Liverpool.

Another narrative that has become tired, but feels new for this particular rivalry, is the problem created by referees. Tomorrow’s match will be reffed by Anthony Taylor, who I believe to be incompetent. Liverpool average 1.9 points per game when Taylor officiates, and 2.31 points per game when he does not. And, it gets worse, the VAR tomorrow will be Paul Tierney. Like Taylor, Tierney hails from the city of Manchester. In Liverpool’s December match against Spurs this season  Tierney was the ref. Tierney failed to award a red card in the first half against Harry Kane, when every commentator afterward indicated that a red was easily merited (video at 4:29).  Then, later in the same first half, Tierney failed to award a penalty when Emerson Royal barged through Jota’s back in the penalty area (video at 7:58). In the second half, Tierney correctly awarded a red card against Andy Robertson. After the match, Klopp confronted Tierney on the pitch (within earshot of some cameras), saying “Honestly, I have no problem with any referees. Only you.” Klopp also went to speak to Tierney in the referee’s dressing room. Finally, Klopp’s post-game remarks to the media, he said “That [Kane tackle] is DEFINITELY a red card.  … These situations are crucial. … I have no idea what his [Tierney’s] problem is with me.”

In previous seasons, it always felt to me like the Premier League assigned Michael Oliver to the biggest matches. This weekend, Oliver was assigned to the Norwich-Burnley game.

Enough about the refs.

Tactically, we MOSTLY know what the two teams will do.  City presses like hell, and they keep the ball. They pass and pass and pass some more, until the opposition loses focus. Then they cut you apart with an incisive combination in the box, leading to a clear scoring chance. Rinse and repeat.  Liverpool also presses like hell, but tries to score very quickly and directly after winning possession. Rinse and repeat. Both teams are good at defending and attacking set pieces.

But both managers sometimes make tactical tweaks to their systems, especially against one another. Last season at the Etihad, Klopp played in a surprise 4-2-2-2 formation, and nabbed a draw, despite playing with a weakened defense (though not nearly as weak as it would become two months later). Pep often employs his players in new positions and/or roles. Pep has also instructed his squad, against LFC, to avoid passing the ball into the middle of the pitch when playing out from defense to attack, so as to avoid giving the ball away under pressure in an area where LFC have the best opportunity to counter. In some situations, this led to crazy situations such as seeing Ederson send a goal kick BACKWARD (and wide).

This season, Pep’s team has had the strongest defense in the league. They have given up only 18 goals. They have still managed to score 70, although the quality of their scoring chances has been trending down over the last couple of months (though you wouldn’t necessarily be able to tell this by looking at their scoring record over that same period). Surprisingly, despite City’s extraordinary press, they are almost last in the league in shots from counterattacks. When Pep’s team recover the ball, against most teams, in most situations, they don’t attempt to counterattack. They just keep it, and launch another methodical attack, passing the opposition to death. In large part, I think this is because quick counterattacks often involve high-risk passes that lead turn your own counter into a counterattack for the opposition. Pep is now quite conservative in setting up his team and tactics to avoid transition opportunities for his opponent.

However, this is one area where I think Pep WILL adjust tomorrow.  One of LFC’s greatest vulnerabilities is against a strong, quick, direct counterattack. A few (or even one) good passes, along with a well-timed run behind the defense, and opponents can find themselves one-on-one against Alisson. Although Pep generally prefers his team to create its chances differently, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t ask his squad to play some higher-risk counterattacking passes tomorrow.

Regardless of City’s approach to counterattacking opportunities, we know that Pep will set up his team to try to prevent LFC from doing what it likes to do with the ball.  Pep will have his forwards pressure VVD to avoid giving him the chance to launch his long diagonals to Trent and Salah. Pep will also block off passing lanes from defense to LFC fullbacks and forwards. Pep’s press will try to force Alisson to launch long passes toward the middle of the pitch. When LFC’s fullbacks do manage to get the ball, Pep’s defense will position themselves to cut off their preferred passing angles with Salah and Mané.

I think the wild card for LFC, to overcome Pep’s tactics, will be Thiago.  I’m a little bit nervous, because Thiago has looked a bit more mortal than usual lately, and has given the ball away under pressure several times over recent games. Throughout his career, Thiago has been known as one of the best midfielders in the world under pressure. He can beat a press with a drop of the shoulder and a dribble, or a Cruyff turn and a pass, or with a no-look one-touch pass to a teammate in space that no one else would have seen. He is special, and his best qualities shine most brightly when defenders bring the press to him while he has the ball. But, he may have an ever-so-slightly reduced reaction time at this point. It may be that he cannot as consistently pull off the tricks under pressure that he has always pulled off in the past.  I expect we will gather quite a bit of more evidence tomorrow whether his recent drop off is just a minor deviation, or the beginning of a long-term negative trend. Thiago (along with the rest of Klopp’s Mentality Monsters) will be up for this one, and he is unlikely to lose focus.  But, if he just can’t quite pull off what he used to, then tomorrow we will see almost certainly see that happen on more than one occasion.

The only tactical tweaks I expect from Klopp this time around will probably be relatively minor in detail, but significant nonetheless. I expect that Liverpool will play as it always does, except that we will, like City, be taking great pains to avoid giving the opposition easy opportunities to score.  I think VVD and the other defenders will kick it into touch more often than usual. I think the midfielders will make more sideways and backward passes than we are used to seeing. Firmino will be acting more like a fourth midfielder than he will like a striker. And, I suspect that Robertson and Trent will both be SLIGHTLY less aggressive than usual in their attacking forays.  But, only slightly.

On the other hand, I expect our press, if anything, to be MORE intense than usual.  Of course, as much as City control the ball, our defense will find itself pushed back far more often than we are accustomed to. And, in those moments, City, as always, will threaten. Nonetheless, despite the fact that our defense defends deep far less often than most defenses, we are still quite good at it.

Frankly, I don’t expect many great chances to be created tomorrow for either team.  I expect them to get a couple.  We might get three or four.  I’ll be surprised if either team gets more than that.

Our defense is so good, that despite City’s incredible control and attacking prowess, I think there’s a pretty decent chance that we will shut them out. They will likely get a couple of good chances. And, they have plenty of players capable of scoring even without a good scoring chance. And, worst of all from our perspective as fans, every time City has the ball it will FEEL like they’re about to score. But, almost every time, they will not. Indeed, maybe every time.

There is also a decent chance that they will shut us out. Their defense is probably just as good as ours. They will be playing extremely conservatively tomorrow, as a draw is better for them than it would be for us. Salah’s finishing has not been good since he returned from the African Cup of Nations. He looked pretty terrible against Watford, although he seemed to have come back to life a bit against Benfica.  Mo needs a goal, but I don’t expect it to come against this defense. I’m hoping that he can draw a bunch of defenders in the box and squeeze through an assist to a mate.

But now is our time. As we discussed yesterday, not only is our starting 11 just as good as theirs, but now our bench is probably as good or better.  If we need a goal late, we have the wild card Luis Díaz to run at their defense, while Agent of Chaos Diogo Jota finds spaces to sneak a goal when a goal just doesn’t seem like it’s about to come. Naby Keïta is available to take us up a notch in midfield (“this one goes to 11”).

The Mentality Monsters will find a way.

Man City 0 – LFC 1