It’s Gonna Be Close
Liverpool and Chelsea. We’ve seen it all before, and we know one thing — it’s gonna be close.
Three times already this season, these two heavyweights have faced up. Three times they have finished 90 minutes with the scoreline even.
These two teams are two of the top five teams in the world (or at least in Europe, where the world’s best players nearly inevitably go). According to the Euro Club Index, Liverpool are currently the best, and Chelsea sit fifth. Meanwhile, fivethirtyeight.com’s global club rankings show LFC sitting second, and Chelsea is fourth.
By any objective measure, Liverpool are a better team than Chelsea. LFC have earned 16 more points in the Premier League through 36 matches. Similarly, although the fivethirtyeight.com and Euro Club Index ratings show that the two teams are both among the best, both systems indicate a sizable gap in the raw numbers between Manchester City and LFC at the top, and Chelsea just a few places below them. In addition, over recent weeks Chelsea have been sputtering. To be sure, last time out Chelsea earned a 3-0 win against the opponent that constitutes the Premier League’s best medicine for whatever ails you — Leeds United. But in the Blues’ previous five league matches, they drew with Wolves and Man United, lost to Everton and Arsenal, and eked out a 1-0 win over 10-man West Ham.
The week before Chelsea began that flaccid string of five league matches, Real Madrid knocked them out of the Champions League. And this was no typical loss. Real won the first leg 3-1 at Stamford Bridge. In the second leg at the Bernabeu, Chelsea scored the first three goals to take a 4-3 lead on aggregate. Then Real struck twice — in the 80th and 96th minutes — to claw back the victory.
Since the heartbreaking Champions League loss to Real Madrid, Tuchel and company have just not been able to get their mojo back. Nonetheless, I have no doubt that they will be as focused and energetic as ever for tomorrow’s cup final. After all, they will be out to avenge another very tough loss. Chelsea has a lot of built-up frustration at the moment, and they will be looking to let it all out in spades against Liverpool.
I just watched the extended highlights of the League Cup final against Chelsea. What a fucking match. It’s absurd that neither team scored in 120 minutes in that match. Both teams created a BUNCH of delicious scoring opportunities. Liverpool scored from a Matip header on a free kick, but Virgil Van Dijk, in an offside position, interfered with a Chelsea defender. Lukaku scored in extra time, and his shirt sleeve was offside by a mere inch. Mason Mount hit the inside of the post, and Christian Pulisic had a point blank opportunity saved by Kelleher in the opening minutes of the match. Salah and Díaz both had one-on-one opportunities thwarted by a goal-line clearance and a good save. In the first half, Sadio Mané snapped up a rebound three yards in front of goal, when it appeared that keeper Edouard Mendy was out of position. Somehow, Mendy still saved it.
And then that crazy penalty shootout happened.
So, Liverpool are a better team, and Chelsea have been struggling recently. But tomorrow is another day.
Some Tactical History: Tuchel Is Clever
Tactically, in all three matches against LFC this season, Thomas Tuchel has been able to limit LFC’s scoring opportunities while still maintaining Chelsea’s dangerous cutting edge in attack. In the early-season tilt at Anfield, Chelsea jumped out to a 0-1 lead, before conceding a penalty and red card in the dying moments of the first half. In the second half, Chelsea dropped their 10 men behind the ball, and none of LFC’s huffing and puffing could blow that house down.
In the league match in January at Stamford Bridge, LFC jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead, thanks to goals from Mané and Salah just before their departures to Africa. But Chelsea had leveled the match by halftime, thanks to a ridiculous wonder volley from distance by Mateo Kovačić and an impressive finish by Christian Pulisic. Chances for both teams were limited in the second half, although Mendy pulled off terrific saves from shots by both Salah and Mané.
Liverpool plays one of the highest, most aggressive defensive lines in world football. At some point, nearly every team that LFC faces attempts to beat the offside trap and expose Liverpool’s defense. Most teams fail, repeatedly. Liverpool’s opponents often get so-called “big chances” that turn out to be offside. But the number of times that teams successfully exploit the high line by both getting behind the defense and beating world-class goalkeeper Alisson Becker is extremely limited.
To Thomas Tuchel’s credit, tactically he has probably done better than anyone this season (with the possible exception of Antonio Conte) at unlocking the LFC defense. In the match at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea employed an interesting approach that resulted in creating big chances on several occasions. When Liverpool lost the ball, Chelsea would first pass it short, then have one of their attackers make a dummy run behind the defense before circling back. After another quick pass, second or third runners would then try to take advantage of the back line being stretched by the first run.
I expect Tuchel to employ similar tactics tomorrow, albeit with some tweaks. Chelsea will get some big chances, and Alisson is probably going to have to make some big saves.
LFC’s New Bag of Tricks
But Liverpool have their own tricks to employ. Two of the key players on the pitch tomorrow, Thiago and Díaz, started neither of the league matches against Chelsea. Indeed, Thiago also missed the League Cup final with an injury in warm-ups. Chelsea have yet to face a team with both Thiago and Díaz in it. Although Fabinho will be a big loss for the Reds, our probable midfield three of Henderson, Thiago, and Keïta has even more cutting edge than if Fabinho were starting rather than Naby. Moreover, Chelsea’s midfield may not be at full-strength, since both N’Golo Kante and Mateo Kovačić are questionable. Even if they both play (and I bet they do), they may not be in top form.
Speaking of lineups, I think Klopp will probably go with as strong a lineup as he can. I think most of the picks are obvious, with the exception of Virgil’s center back partner and the third forward slot after Mané and Salah. At CB, Matip has been nearly perfect this season, and has earned the right to start. But he lacks the recovery pace of Konaté, who is therefore better equipped to deal with Chelsea’s runs behind the defense. Speed kills. For that reason, I suspect Ibou will start this one. As for the forward line, Díaz has probably been our best attacker over the last six weeks. But, he would also be the best option for LFC to have off the bench at the end of the match, especially if the game goes into an extra 30-minute period. I still think Díaz will probably start, but it will be no shock if Klopp holds him back to finish the match. If someone else starts, I’d love to see Firmino. He hasn’t played since his return from injury, but he was on the bench against Villa on Tuesday and has been in training for about a week. Diogo Jota is in a slump, and now is not the time to try to have him play out of it.
Projected lineup:
Both teams will be up for this, and both teams will leave everything out on the pitch. Although scoring chances will be limited, both sides will create some very good ones. Ultimately, a moment or two of pure magic may be what it takes to divide these teams.
But, in the end, Liverpool’s marginally-superior athletes should win the day. They will make us uncomfortable, and they will make it difficult. But, we are still more likely to create enough chances to win the match than they are.
Predicted Score:
Chelsea 1 – LFC 2
Up the trophy-winning Reds!
