Liverpool 1 – Manchester City 0.
Now, THAT’S what I’m talking about. What a way to stop a freefall. I’m pretty sure I’ve got whiplash. And I’ve never been happier for my predictions about a game to make me look like an idiot.
Indeed, I’m so happy that my predictions were wrong, that I want to revisit them now.
City Failed to Cut Liverpool Apart With Quick Passing Combinations
I said that Manchester City are the “perfect team” to exploit the defensive frailties that Liverpool have displayed this season. I stand by that. As I pointed out, several teams — most notably Manchester United, Napoli, Brighton, and Arsenal — had repeatedly opened up Liverpool’s defense through the middle, using short, quick passing combinations. Indeed, even lowly Rangers managed to score a goal against Liverpool by doing exactly this.
Meanwhile, I also pointed out that Manchester City is probably the best team in the world at using short, quick passing combinations. I stand by that, too.
Finally, I also said:
We’ve seen LFC be carved open by good passing over and over this season. It seems irrational to expect anything else tomorrow. (15/19)
— Quickly Taken Corner (@stevebjensen) October 15, 2022
There’s where I went wrong. But I have to say, even now, after Liverpool’s magnificent defensive performance against the best attack in the world, which I saw with my own eyes on Sunday, I STILL think it would have been irrational to expect that to happen before the match.
Thus, I predicted that City would win easily — by a score of LFC 1 to Man City 4. Ha! I guess I got half of the scoreline right.
How Did Liverpool Prevent City From Using Passing Combinations to Create Clear Scoring Chances?
I don’t think the magic here was a tactical switch by Klopp. I really believe this primarily came down to the players maintaining focus and communication for the whole 90 minutes.
To stop an incredible passing team from using “one-twos” against you, defensive teammates need to work together in perfect sync. They need to follow the attackers, cut off their movements toward open space, and anticipate the passes. They must know exactly when to allow their teammates to take over to cover a run in behind, versus sticking with the runner themselves. They must coordinate their positioning to deter the passes from being played at all.
And, for 90 minutes against City, Liverpool did all of that magnificently.
That doesn’t mean LFC will continue to do that for the rest of the season, or even that Liverpool will do it on Wednesday against West Ham. But, at least in the “big-game” atmosphere at Anfield on Sunday, they did it. They did it in spades.
Why Couldn’t Manchester City Exploit James Milner Playing at Right Back?
Another fear I expressed in my preview was that, if Konaté could not play, Milner might play at right back. I pointed out that Milner’s earlier stints in that position this season (and against City last season) had been disastrous.
However, Milner was outstanding against City on Sunday, and City were never able to show up the right side of Liverpool’s defense.
This time I do think Klopp’s tactics played a major role. Klopp set up the team so that Harvey Elliott, as the wide right attacking midfielder in the 4-2-3-1, would play deeper than he ordinarily would. Elliott’s deeper position permitted Harvey to provide more defensive support to Milner on the right side, both in transition and when Manchester City built up attacks through extended possession.
Another tactical tweak that Klopp employed to help Milner: Klopp instructed Milner to be the corner-taker every time Liverpool had a corner kick. This freed Milner from the right back’s usual responsibility of stopping any opposition counterattacking opportunities after Liverpool’s corner, while positioned up at (or near) the midfield line. When Milner tried to do this defensive job against Everton, he failed miserably. Everton created several very high-value scoring chances directly from Liverpool’s corners, mostly by running straight past Millie as if he weren’t even there. Only good fortune, bad finishing, and Alisson stopped Everton from scoring on any of them.
Sunday, with Milner actually taking the corners himself, Liverpool had adequate protection against counterattacks. And, Milner’s certainly a competent set piece taker.
But, let’s be clear: stopping City from exploiting Milner’s lack of pace was not ONLY tactical. Both Milner himself, Harvey Elliott, and the entire team deserve massive credit for executing the game plan to perfection while maintaining focus and intensity throughout. Watching 37-year-old James Milner perform like that was a wonderful, beautiful thing. Seeing 19-year-old Harvey Elliott turn in a commendable defensive performance against ANY team, much less the best attacking team in the world, was similarly majestic and unexpected. The combination of youth and experience turned out perfectly — at least on this day.
We Found Our Best Player
How delightful was it to watch Liverpool’s best player perform up to his own world-class standards? Welcome back, Mohamed Salah. It’s been too long.
During the first half of last season, Mo was the best player on the planet. Then, Salah endured some extremely difficult physical and emotional struggles on international duty with Egypt — losing on penalty kicks to Senegal in the both the Final of the African Cup of Nations and in a one-game playoff to qualify for the World Cup. Also, during that same period, Salah was also dealing with speculation and uncertainty surrounding his future at the club. Finally, Liverpool asked him to play essentially every game in a very intense climactic period of the season, while the team was fighting to win four trophies. With all of these factors contributing, Salah was not nearly as good for Liverpool in the last half of last year. He looked exhausted, and I’m sure he was.
During the offseason, Mo signed a new deal with Liverpool, got a few weeks of R&R, and the future seemed bright again. Then, Liverpool came out of the gate stuttering, and Salah’s lack of goal-scoring was a big part of the malaise.
Certainly, Salah has contributed a lot to the team this season in other ways. His creativity has been excellent — his chance-creation statistics so far this year have been much higher than they usually are. Indeed, Salah is currently behind only Kevin de Bruyne in the Premier League this season for “key passes,” which are passes that lead directly to a shot.
But, up until last Wednesday’s substitute appearance against Rangers in the Champions League, this season Salah had simply not had his scoring boots on. In eleven appearances to that point in all competitions, Salah had managed to score only four times.
Positioning Salah Closer to the Goal
Part of Mo’s scoring problem for most of this season has appeared to be a tactical issue. His starting position has been farther from the goal than we’re used to seeing him.
Then, against Rangers two weeks ago Klopp shifted from his mainstay 4-3-3 formation to the current 4-2-3-1 approach. Still, Salah started wide right, now arguably even farther from the goal in a wide attacking midfield role. Salah played this wide right spot both against Rangers at Anfield, then against Arsenal. He failed to score from open play in either match, though he did score a penalty against Rangers.
But the floodgates opened the following week when Klopp shifted Salah to his latest role as a central striker in the 4-2-3-1 (or, if you prefer, 4-2-4, or 4-4-2). Salah did not start against Rangers at Ibrox. Rather, he came on as a substitute for Darwin Núñez in the 68th minute, with Liverpool already leading 3-1. And what a substitute appearance it was.
Seven minutes after coming on, Salah scored the first of three goals. His hat-trick took only 6 minutes and 12 seconds, which is the fastest in Champions League history. Although the goalkeeper wasn’t great against his three strikes, Salah was nonetheless fantastic.
And then we got Sunday. Once again, Klopp started him as the center forward in the 4-2-3-1. And we were treated to Mo Salah being back to his best in the biggest of matches, against the best of opposition.
Salah’s success in the new striker’s role makes one wonder why this tactical switch took so long. It’s been several seasons since we have seen Mo in that role.
Intriguingly, after the Rangers match last week Klopp strongly hinted that Salah himself has resisted the shift from his usual wide position. This does seem to fit with Salah’s repeated references to himself over the years as a winger, rather than a striker. I think Mo has embraced his identity as a wide player as a way of boosting his scoring feats even more. When someone compares him with another high-scoring forward, Mo can always say, “Yes. And remember, [fill-in-the-blank] is a striker, but I play as a winger [from a position where it’s tougher to score].” I’d guess that Salah and his agent have also used this narrative when negotiating Salah’s contracts with Liverpool.
But, even if Salah sees himself as a winger, the reality is that Liverpool need their best player and their best goal-scorer in the best possible position to score goals. And that’s right where Mo Salah is at the moment.
Long may it continue.
What’s Next?
Was that performance against the best of the best Liverpool’s way of (finally) hitting the reset button? Will they push on from here?
Maybe. The Premier League season is a very long slog. We’ve still got 29 games left to go, starting with tomorrow’s match at Anfield against West Ham United.
The Reds need to demonstrate that they can maintain the same level of defensive focus that they displayed against City. We’ve seen them do it for years, so we know they can. But they’ve also given us a ton of reason to be dubious about whether they WILL do it this season.
It’s also worthwhile to point out that Klopp’s new 4-2-4 tactics have included a dialing-down of Liverpool’s famous press. Liverpool are certainly still pressing. But, in general, they are doing it less high, less intensely, and less often than in the past.
I think that’s likely because the coaching staff has determined that fatigue and age has caused a decline in the effectiveness of LFC’s pressing. If you press ineffectively, then you get the worst of all possible defensive worlds. You give the other team space in behind, while failing to disrupt the passing that will send the ball to players running behind into that empty space.
I have mixed feelings about the reduction in pressing. On the down side, I mourn the loss of “our identity is intensity.” Not that the Reds have abandoned that identity entirely, but it’s far less central to the team’s current approach. Another problem is that, when the Reds really need a goal, intense high pressing is the best way to try and get it. This problem showed up in the Arsenal match. Our “mid-block” press allowed Arsenal’s back line to pass the ball among themselves without any meaningful pressure. That’s fine if the Reds are ahead, but when you’re losing 3-2, as Liverpool were for the last 20 minutes at the Emirates, it’s not acceptable.
But the upside is high. Liverpool immediately improved defensively as soon as Klopp changed shape and tactics two weeks ago against Rangers. And that culminated on Sunday with Liverpool managing a clean sheet against the best attacking team in the world. It’s difficult to imagine that the Reds would have done that if they had employed the same 4-3-3 tactics that they had been using for the first chunk of the season.
What Will We See Tomorrow?
Like Liverpool, West Ham have struggled and underperformed this season. They currently sit in 13th place, with 11 points (just two behind Liverpool). But, they are also undefeated in their last three league matches, including a 2-0 win against Wolves and a 3-1 victory over Fulham. After last season’s 7th-placed finish, the season has been quite disappointing so far.
Nonetheless, David Moyes’ West Ham team (and even earlier West Ham teams) have historically given Klopp’s Liverpool all that we can handle. Last season the Hammers beat Liverpool 3-2 in London before the Reds edged the reverse fixture 1-0 at Anfield.
West Ham play physically, and they will not allow the Reds much space behind the defense. Striker Michail Antonio has historically been a huge thorn in Liverpool’s side, but he may not make the starting lineup tomorrow. Newcomer Gianluca Scamacca has supplanted Antonio as first-choice. So far, Scamacca has scored twice in eight appearances for his new team. I’m biased by past performances against Liverpool, but for what it’s worth I hope Scamacca plays the whole 90 minutes and keeps Antonio planted on the bench.
As for Liverpool, we again face another injury crisis with Diogo Jota out for “months” with a serious calf injury. With Luis Díaz likewise sidelined until after the World Cup with a knee problem, Liverpool’s left-sided attacking force is now down to third- and fourth-choices.
Obviously, Fabio Carvalho will pull a bigger load with both Jota and Díaz out. Another possibility is Curtis Jones, although he has yet to see the pitch this season. Similarly, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is now back in team training, and he could easily fill the left-sided attacking midfield slot in the 4-2-3-1.
Finally, and perhaps most intriguingly, is Darwin Núñez. He spent an entire season playing on the left wing for Benfica, with fair success. And, in his short stint at LFC so far, he has shown the ability to interchange with the left-sided forward with some regularity. He has also shown that he can cross the ball reasonably well.
Having said all of that, I think Núñez is unlikely to start on the left very often. His passing and vision are too limited, as illustrated by his poor decisions on a few counterattacks late in the match on Sunday. Equally importantly, he has been brought to Liverpool to stretch defenses vertically and score goals, and the center forward spot is far better-suited to both of those functions. Plus, with Liverpool now playing a formation that uses TWO central strikers, LFC will need Núñez centrally just as much as they will need left-sided attackers.
Tomorrow, I expect Núñez to fill one of those central striker roles, alongside Mo Salah. On the left, I expect Carvalho to start, and Elliott will probably continue in his right-sided attacking midfield spot. If it shapes up that way, then the formation should operate like a traditional 4-4-2. Both Carvalho and Elliott will often drop into midfield, and Núñez and Salah will probably often split into “left” and “right” striker roles, rather than one of them playing behind the other.
In central midfield, Henderson should step in to start with Fabinho, which will give Thiago a break.
In defense, Trent Alexander-Arnold should be back in the lineup, while Gomez, van Dijk, and Robertson will likely start again.
Thus, my guess is:
If the Reds can maintain the level of defensive focus we saw on Sunday, then this one shouldn’t be that tough. West Ham will certainly put up a fight, but they’re unlikely to keep the Reds off the scoresheet. But, if the Liverpool play defense the way they have most of this season, West Ham could easily beat them.
With fingers crossed, I’ll return to rosy optimism.
Liverpool 2 – West Ham 0
