One of the many great things about following European football is that, if your team is contending for titles, almost every point in the lengthy season can seem like a critical juncture. For us as Liverpool fans, this week is another one of those “critical” points.
Wins today and on Sunday against Palace will keep LFC alive in two competitions (albeit on life support in the PL) while they await the return of several key players.
And, although the Carabao Cup is clearly the least-prestigious of the four competitions in which LFC plays, it is also a cup that Jürgen Klopp has never won. Indeed, only Jordan Henderson has played for an LFC team that won this competition (back in 2012, the first year for both me as an LFC supporter and Henderson as an LFC player). This team hasn’t picked up a trophy since winning the league in front of empty stadiums in 2020. Winning one with and for the fans would feel really good for the team. This season, the League Cup is, far and away, the trophy that LFC has the best chance of winning at this point.
So, even though it’s the League Cup (sometimes justifiably referred to as the “Mickey Mouse Cup,”) this feels big.
Arsenal is likely to attack this time. First of all, that’s how they like to play. Secondly, they will start the game with 11 players. Third, they will be in front of their home fans. And fourth, if they get the first goal, they will reasonably believe they have a good chance of holding onto the lead, based on their defensive performance in the first leg.
If Arsenal are smart, they will press us to start, and leave two attackers high up the pitch even after we bypass their press. If they are smart, they will also avoid playing out from the back. Instead, they should just launch it over the midfield, probably down the sides of the pitch and over the heads of our always-attacking fullbacks. Then, on those occasions when the long passes connect, or whenever Arsenal picks up the “second balls,” they will find themselves with good numbers on the break.
Arsenal may also copy some of the tactics that Chelsea used against us, including putting a man on VVD when LFC has the ball, so that he doesn’t have the opportunity to spray those long diagonals. Of course, when Arsenal press, for them it’s critical that they cut off the passing lanes to LFC’s forwards as much as possible (as Chelsea also did quite well).
Arsenal have been struggling with players missing due to injuries, the African Cup of Nations, and, to a lesser extent, COVID. As a result, the PL postponed their North London derby against Spurs on Sunday. But, several of their then-missing players have apparently been back in training over the last couple of days. I expect Arsenal to start a pretty strong lineup today.
For Liverpool, the tactical approach will be mostly the same as ever. Press high. Attack quickly and directly immediately after recovering the ball. And, in possession, be patient, while mixing in a variety of attacks through the middle and out wide, using the fullbacks as primary playmakers.
In possession, we badly miss Thiago. Interestingly, the club actually announced that he should be back for the Cardiff match in the FA Cup on Feb. 6, after the international break. That will be terrific, if it’s true. He’s been spectacular this season, and his passing opens up the pitch in a way that we just cannot accomplish without him. Of course, we also miss the Africans. The aphorism says that the hardest thing to do in football is put the ball in the back of the net. And our two best attackers are unavailable. Diogo Jota, thankfully, is also damned good at the hard part of football, and he’s still here. As is Roberto Firmino. Both of them are pretty much locks to start today. The biggest personnel question in my mind is the right-sided forward. Last week Jota started on the right, while Minamino was on the left. I think Klopp may do that again, but I hope he doesn’t.
Jota has looked excellent both on the left and as the center forward for LFC. He has made very few appearances on the right side, and he has not looked good there. Firmino has never looked particularly good in anything other than a central position — he is at his best in his customary false 9 position or when playing as the #10 in a 4-2-3-1 set up. If Klopp does what I want, and plays Jota on the left and Firmino as the #9 in the 4-3-3, the big question is who fills Mo Salah’s position on the right. There are quite a few possibilities.
On Sunday Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain played that role, and did a very good job — scoring the key second goal. But, he’s unavailable for this one after twisting his ankle. Among the healthy and available players, I think the possibilities for right-sided forward include the following (roughly in descending order of probability):
- Diogo Jota, with Minamino on the left
- Minamino
- Curtis Jones
- Kaide Gordon
- Neco Williams
- James Milner
I believe Minamino has played for us on the right side before. He certainly played in that position fairly frequently at Leipzig. He’s not really found his positional spot at LFC, which is a shame. I personally like him best as a false 9, but he’s not nearly as good at that as either Firmino or Jota. But, part of the reason he hasn’t found his spot is that he’s a multi-skilled, versatile guy. Today, I would like for him to start on the right, and for Kaide Gordon to come on late when legs are tired and spaces opening up for him to run into.
Curtis Jones is also an incredibly versatile player, and is almost equally useful as either a central midfielder or a forward. But I’m not sure that he’s played as a right-sided forward for us. Given that he naturally drifts toward the center, his right-footedness is not a great match for the right-sided forward in our tactical setup. We either want: a) a left-footer like Salah (or Elliott, or Gordon), who can cut inside and then be well-positioned to shoot; or b) a right-footer who will stay wide, make the pitch bigger, and send in crosses from the right side and the by-line. Curtis Jones does not fit. I hope and expect he again plays on the left side of central midfield, where he played against Brentford on Sunday.
Kaide Gordon is the only available player who is tactically a like-for-like replacement for Salah. He’s fast, dribbles well, shoots well, and he’s left-footed. He’s also 17 years old and has VERY little experience playing for the senior team. For that reason, I’d be shocked if he starts today. I’d even be surprised if he comes on as a sub, although I’d personally like to see that happen.
Neco Williams has been playing as a right-sided forward for Wales this season, and Klopp has used him that way in a couple of instances for Liverpool. He is a right-footer who provides width, and a strong defensive presence.
James Milner has played much of his career as a right sided forward/attacking mid. He also would provide width, along with his considerable nous and a solid defensive presence.
We’ll see.
As for goalkeeper: after I sent the preview email last week, I learned that Klopp had basically told the media that, although the League Cup is “Kelleher’s competition,” that Alisson would start the match on Thursday because it had been several weeks since he had played (due to COVID). Therefore, Klopp started Alisson last week to give him some rhythm. Now that Alisson has played the last two games, I expect Kelleher to again take over today, because this is still “his competition.”
In the backline, Matip and Robbo may have gotten “knocks” on the weekend. I kind of expect them to rotate out anyway.
My predicted lineup:
I expect an exciting match. I think the team that scores first is likely to win (which is true in EVERY match, but I feel like it may be an exaggerated effect today).
Arsenal 1 – LFC 2
Roll on, Mighty Reds!
