Liverpool fans are not well-known for their admiration of the British Crown, but the timing of Elizabeth’s death may have done the team a major favor. Could the postponement of both last weekend’s Premier League fixtures and Liverpool’s upcoming match against Chelsea salvage Liverpool’s season?
Probably not. But stranger things have definitely happened. Let’s talk about the possibility.
A Strange and Disturbing Start
To put it mildly, my pessimism last week proved more than warranted. As we’ve discussed throughout the last month, Liverpool have had a strange and disturbing start to the season.
Last season Liverpool ruthlessly rolled over opponents in every competition. That team barely missed etching their names in history as the only team ever to win the quadruple. It wasn’t the best season ever, but it could have been. It was close.
This season, Liverpool lost star forward Sadio Mané, and brought in young striker Darwin Núñez and even-younger attacking midfielder Fabio Carvalho. Otherwise, the squad is very close to the same team that dominated opponents a year ago.
But this season’s version of Liverpool have been tame, docile, and passive. So far, this team’s identity has been the opposite of intensity.
What’s Been Happening?
I’ve struggled to figure out what’s going on and why.
I have four working theories, and I tend to think that all four are playing a part. First, I believe Liverpool’s numerous injuries have created holes in every area of the team — defense, midfield, and attack. Second, I think that Jürgen Klopp and his coaching staff have tweaked Liverpool’s tactical system in significant ways, and that players are still becoming accustomed to these changes. Third, I believe Liverpool’s players are both mentally and physically fatigued, despite it being the very beginning of the season. Fourth, I think the Reds miss Sadio Mané.
Injuries Are a Big Part of the Problem
On the injury front, the discussion should center on the midfielders. Thiago has missed all but the first 60 minutes of the season and the last 20. Naby Keïta has missed the whole thing so far (purportedly through injury, but I believe because he threw a shit fit). Henderson is out. And Curtis Jones has been out almost all season. Thus, in midfield, Fabinho, Milner, and Harvey Elliott have done an awful lot of lifting.
Fabinho has looked well below his standard throughout the year, but at least part of that is because the pressing and positioning of the midfielders in front of him has just not been up to snuff. Fabinho is trying to cover too much ground and carry too much weight. Ahead of Fabinho on the left has been James Milner, whose legs appear to have finally given up the ghost. I’m confident that Milner’s physical stamina is still at or near the top of the squad, but his lack of sprint speed makes it particularly easy for opposing players to run right past him — with or without the ball. Meanwhile, on the right side has been Harvey Elliott. Elliott has been a tremendous bright spot as an attacker, but without the ball he’s not getting it done. Like Milner, Elliott is among the Premier League “leaders” in having players dribble past him. And, so far Elliott has succeeded only 18% of the time when attempting to tackle.
When working correctly, Klopp’s midfield provides the foundation for the team’s pressing and intensity. But so far this season, with two of the three midfield positions being occupied by poor pressers, there is no such foundation. And, as we saw with the injury plague during the 2020-21 season, when one piece of the puzzle in Klopp’s system gets messed up, ALL of it gets thrown way out of balance. After the debacle at Napoli last week, Klopp lamented that his team was not compact enough. This was because the lack of effective pressing in the midfield (and attack) left the high defensive line wide open. This, in turn, caused the defenders to back up the line, which left the team spread apart (lacking compactness). And Napoli carved the non-compact, non-intense Liverpool defense open repeatedly and easily. Manchester United and others have similarly opened up LFC’s defense this season.
So Is the New System
As I’ve said several times this season, another big part of LFC’s malaise is likely due to the players learning a new tactical system. They are now positioned in places different from where they’ve been over the last five seasons, and it’s difficult to etch new patterns in the brain over deeply-ingrained habits repeated over such a long time. They’re hesitating, in and out of possession. Such hesitations are death, at this level.
And It Looks and Feels Like the Players Are Worn Out from Last Season
Last season was exceptionally long, and the Reds played every possible match. The players remained remarkably healthy and focused throughout the grueling campaign, and were remarkably successful across the entire year — especially the second half of the season. From January forward, the Reds played 35 matches, winning 28 and losing only twice.
But all of that success appears to have drained the players both physically and mentally. They played all the way until the last European match of the season — the Champions League Final. Then, the preseason started a couple of weeks earlier than it normally does, because the 2022-23 schedule has been heavily compressed by the mid-season World Cup. Liverpool’s players played more games than they are accustomed to during the season, and played them at a very high-level of focus and intensity while attempting to win four trophies. Then they also had a shorter offseason in which to relax and recover.
Based on the number of hamstring injuries that the Reds have suffered in the first month, it appears that the sports science team probably also pushed the players too hard during the shortened preseason. It’s understandable — this compressed season is a one-off, and there was no blueprint for how to maximize players’ fitness in this situation.
But the lack of fitness is creating huge problems for the team on the pitch. Liverpool have been outrun by their opponents in every match, both in total distance covered and in number of sprints. This is unheard of for a team managed by Jürgen Klopp. And, when the team isn’t running and pressing with high intensity, everything that’s good about Klopp’s system goes out the window, and everything that’s risky about it gets exacerbated in the extreme.
And Yes, We Miss Sadio As Well
Although Luis Díaz has been one of Liverpool’s best attackers so far this season while playing in Mané’s usual slot on the left wing, Liverpool have undoubtedly still missed Mané’s presence — especially without the ball. The last few seasons, as Roberto Firmino suffered a series of injuries and slowed down, Mané led Liverpool’s press. His aggression, speed, and excellent decisions activated Liverpool as a pressing unit. Although Díaz also makes a pest of himself, he doesn’t yet have the experience of Mané in knowing the precise angles and timing that will trigger an effective press for the whole team.
So Will the Postponements Help Salvage the Season?
It can’t hurt. Before the Queen’s death, I had been seriously worried that Fabinho would join the walking wounded. He’s clearly looked fatigued, and playing 90 minutes three times a week was putting him at extremely high risk. Now, however, he should have a decent shot at being fairly rested after the international break. Fabinho will be training and playing with Brazil over the break, but he’s unlikely to play two full matches. And, by the time the break is over, Jordan Henderson should again be fit, and significantly more rested himself. At that point the manager will again have two possible defensive midfielders available. Curtis Jones should also again be available by then.
In addition, the postponements from the Queen’s death will give Arthur Melo several weeks in which to have his own version of preseason training with Liverpool. In his brief appearance against Napoli, Arthur looked extremely rusty. And, Klopp asks his midfielders to do an awful lot that most midfielders in most teams don’t have to do. LFC’s midfielders are the key to the Reds’ transition defense, and their responsibilities for covering for fullbacks and each other are numerous and significant. Just because Arthur has played in midfields for Barcelona and Juventus does not mean he was ready to walk into Klopp’s midfield, especially after he had played so little over the last six months. But, this down period with the coaching staff will hopefully give Arthur time to get up to speed, both physically and tactically.
But, perhaps most importantly, the postponements will give Liverpool time on the training pitch and the video room with the coaching staff, as they try to “reset” the season. The team needs to get back to being themselves. They need to remember how to be Liverpool. It’s the coaching staff’s job to remind them. Now, those coaches will have that opportunity.
What About Tomorrow?
Tomorrow finds Liverpool still nursing a lot of injuries, a lot of fatigue, and no rhythm. But, I am hopeful that last week’s debacle against Napoli will spur Klopp to choose different midfield options ahead of Fabinho, which will hopefully give the Reds a better chance. I love both Milner and Elliott, for different reasons. And both will have their parts to play this season. But I’m hopeful that starting tomorrow’s match is not one of those parts.
Robertson is out tomorrow, and Gomez is likely to sit after his nightmare last week. It’s a shame for him, as he had been playing as well or better than Virgil van Dijk before the Napoli match. But, as poor as VVD was last week, Gomez made him look good. Once Ibrahima Konaté comes back from his injury, it’s likely to be a long while before Gomez starts again outside of the domestic cups.
I’m hoping both Jota and Núñez start tomorrow. Díaz deserves a rest, and he will likely be playing a lot of minutes for Colombia during the international break.
Here’s my (hopeful) guess at Liverpool’s lineup:
Honestly, it’s probably more likely that either Elliott, Carvalho, or even Arthur play in the right-sided #8 role tomorrow, as opposed to Firmino. But I’d like to see Bobby do it. I thought he did well when coming on in a midfield role in the Everton match, and his presence would bring both attacking threat and pressing quality.
Ajax is a tough team, and Liverpool will need to play better than it has played in nearly every match this season to beat them. But it’s Anfield, it’s a European night, and I’m an optimist.
LFC 3 – Ajax 1
Up the Reds!
