And here … we … go.
The off-season was mercifully short, and we’re about to get our Reds back. If only we could cancel the international breaks. Alas.
As I mentioned, many on LFC-related Twitter accounts have spent the entire preseason moaning about our failure to sign anyone this summer. To them I say, “Shut the fuck up.” Sure, I too thought we should sign a few players for depth. But, I have a long enough memory to recall when I was also upset because Klopp and Co. failed to sign a “Plan B” center back alternative when the Virgil Van Dijk transfer went south. I was later concerned when we sold Coutinho in January without signing any attacking reinforcements (though that’s when our hero VVD finally arrived). After Klopp managed us to a Champions League final in that season about which I had been so concerned, I vowed that I would “Trust in Klopp” thereafter. And that’s what I’m doing.
It will be interesting to see how the personnel issues play out this year. I don’t think even Klopp knows how it will go.
Based on preseason, I believe that Origi is our first choice attacking sub at the moment. But I don’t expect that to last. On the one hand, he’s actually a very good option off the bench. When legs tire and the game is “stretched” — i.e. spaces are opened up on both ends because of those tired legs — Origi’s speed, dribbling, and finishing skills are very useful. But he’s far less useful against a packed defense, or even against a high-pressing defense that is not tired. His skill level just isn’t high enough, in my opinion.
In my opinion, Rhian Brewster is a better option at the start of a match, even though he’s never played a single minute for the senior squad in a competitive match. He’s the whole package — pace, movement, dribbling, strength, vision, timing, passing, and finishing. I suppose he’s not tall and therefore probably isn’t magnificent in aerial duels. But Origi IS tall and still sucks in the air. Brewster is much better than Origi at combining with the players around him in tight spaces. And that’s a critical skill against most of the teams that LFC play.
Meanwhile, we have at least three midfielders who have played as forwards — either at LFC and/or in their past lives. Oxlade-Chamberlain often played as a wide attacker at Arsenal, and occasionally did it two seasons ago for LFC. Wijnaldum spent most of his time at Newcastle as a wide forward, and that’s been Shaqiri’s position both at LFC and previously. But we should note a few caveats about each of those attacking options: 1) Ox strongly prefers to play in the central midfield, and he was certainly at his best for us in that role, in contrast to when he played in the forward line; 2) Gini is not pacy enough to play every week as a wide forward in our 4-3-3. Wijnaldum is far from slow, but Klopp wants forwards with speed to burn past fullbacks and center backs with ease. That’s not Wijnaldum’s game. He’s better suited to play as a wide attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 system. 3) Speaking of which, Klopp NEVER started Shaqiri as a wide forward in a 4-3-3, despite the fact that wide forward is his natural position. Instead, Shaqiri got almost all of his minutes as a right-sided wide attacking mid in the 4-2-3-1. Even when he came off the bench in games where we had been playing in a 4-3-3, we usually changed our system to 4-2-3-1 to accommodate him. This strongly suggests that Klopp doesn’t think Shaqiri can handle the load as a forward in the 4-3-3. That’s almost certainly because of Shaqiri’s defensive limitations. But, whatever the reason, Klopp refused to use him in the 4-3-3 system (he had one very brief stint as a midfielder in the 4-3-3, and Klopp yanked him from that game at halftime).
So what will happen when one (or more) of our front three are resting or injured? First, recognize that, for the most part, all three of them can play either in wide positions or as striker. Mané and Firmino are also both equally comfortable playing as attacking midfielders in a 4-2-3-1, and even Salah will occasionally play in that role. So, those three are basically interchangeable with each other, and can mostly be mixed and matched as necessary to fill most gaps. But there’s one particular role that neither Firmino nor Salah are well-suited to fill — Mané’s left-sided attacking role. In my mind, I would expect Salah to be able to play there quite effectively, though he would be less of a goal threat on that side. Having said that, Salah has only played on that side for VERY brief stints in matches when he and Mané would swap sides just to give the defenders a different look. I don’t think Salah’s played on the left for more than about 10 minutes at a time. The same is true for Shaqiri. Ironically, Shaqiri found himself on the left side of the pitch in the second leg of the Barça CL semifinal, and that’s when he lofted a perfect cross for Gini to head home LFC’s third goal of that match. I can’t recall how or why Shaqiri got there — probably the position came about because they had just been in a free kick situation, or maybe the forwards just interchanged through natural movement. But he performed on the left that time.
Firmino has played on the left. But he’s not nearly as productive out there as compared with when he’s playing either as striker in the 4-3-3 or as the central attacking mid in a 4-2-3-1.
Naby Keïta played several games as the left attacking mid in a 4-2-3-1 last season, but he was never very good at it.
Personally, I think Gini may be our best option to substitute for Mané on the left. I would play a 4-2-3-1 in that instance. If Mané himself is injured or being rested, then just play a 4-2-3-1 and slot Gini in that position. If it’s Firmino or Salah who are out, then play a 4-2-3-1 with Wijnaldum as the left attacking mid, and use Mané in any of the remaining three attacking positions (striker, central attacking mid, or right attacking mid). Gini will not often be a goal threat in that position, but he will get forward enough to commit defenders and create space for others in the box, while also often dropping deep and making himself available to retain possession in midfield. When we don’t have the ball, Gini will press and defend extremely effectively from that position.
If Mané is unavailable and we want to play 4-3-3, Klopp is likely to rely either on Origi or Brewster. I’d love to see Brewster play that role in the domestic cups, with Origi playing beside him as the striker. We’ll see. Brewster has been almost exclusively a striker in the youth academy teams, so maybe it won’t work. But I suspect that Klopp will experiment with it.
In sum, I think we’re still lacking depth in the attacking positions. That lack of depth is most telling on our left side.
Meanwhile, what’s going to happen with our midfield? This season, Klopp has a veritable wealth of options there. He’s ALMOST got a Man City-like set of choices (OK, now I’m going over the top, but there are some similarities). Old standbys Hendo, Millie, and Gini are all ready to go (Milner sat out the Community Shield with muscle tightness, but he has trained all week since and Klopp said today he’s fine for tomorrow). Fabinho is clearly our best choice as the #6 (defensive mid). Naby Keïta has fully recovered from his injuries and has looked VERY sharp in his two appearances since returning from the summer break. Adam Lallana is currently fit and spent several games in the preseason playing as the #6 (an interesting experiment). And Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is definitely back, though he doesn’t yet look sharp. That’s seven choices for three slots (or two slots, if we play 4-2-3-1).
My guess is that Milner will see less time on the pitch this season. I think he will get lots of appearances off the bench, but will not be a regular starter. Milner is also likely to see at least some time as the backup left back. Likewise, I think Lallana will see only occasional starts. It wouldn’t surprise me if both Gini and AOC see some time in positions other than central midfield. As discussed above, Gini is definitely an option as an attacking mid in the 4-2-3-1, as is AOC. Both of them can also fill in as “utility guys” in more defensive roles. Gini and AOC will both get time in their preferred roles as central midfielders, but I don’t expect either of them to be starting there as consistently as they might want.
If I’m right about all of that, then the most likely “regular” starters in the central midfield are Fabinho, Henderson, and Keïta. Which would make me pretty happy.
Having said all of that, I think we will see virtually every permutation of the seven possible midfielders playing together at different points this year. Injuries happen, as do fluctuations in performance. Plus, some of them are better suited for certain opponents than others. For example, Keïta and AOC are useful creative cogs against a packed defense, and are arguably even more important against a pressing team that tries to cut off our passing lanes to the forwards (which is probably the best way to defend against us). When the passing lanes are shut down, we need someone to dribble through the middle. Both Keïta and Oxlade-Chamberlain are perfect for that. Meanwhile, Fabinho’s defensive skills are most critical against teams that have a potent counter-attack. Likewise, the positioning and covering of Henderson, Gini, and Milner is well-suited to games against teams with a potent counter. I expect to see Lallana used almost exclusively in league matches against packed defenses, and in domestic cups. Lallana’s minutes in the CL are likely to be limited to games that have already been decided, and/or in games against weaker teams that just park the bus (if we face any of those in the CL).
Last season, Klopp seemed to prefer the Gini-Hendo-Milner midfield in away matches in the Champions League. Maybe he does so again. Or maybe he will find a different combination of mids that he plays in the CL, while favoring another set of mids for most league matches.
My actual DREAM midfield for us, based on our currently-available options, is Fabinho-Naby-AOC. These are our three best midfield pressers. If we really want to pin back the opposition in their own half, that’s the best midfield we could choose. I think Naby would destroy the world if he were grouped with AOC and Fabinho.
One last note. Based on our preseason and a few rumblings from Klopp, I suspect that we will see a relatively subtle tactical shift this season. Last year, most of our creativity came from the fullbacks. This came about in part because of how teams shut down passing lanes through the middle against us. It also came about because AOC was out, and Naby was both often injured and always unpredictable as to when he would give away the ball. This year, I think you will see teams focus more on shutting down the fullbacks, and I think you will see us try and push the ball forward through the middle of the park more often.
That brings us to the most settled portion of the team — the defense. The only BIG question about our defense is who will be the primary starting center back alongside VVD. I don’t think Lovren is in the running, but both Matip and Gomez have made very strong cases for themselves. I’ve thought about this a lot, and I think Gomez is the best choice.
First, let me say that Matip was magnificent last year when called on to fill that role. Arguably, he was even more consistent and reliable in the second half of the season than VVD. He EARNED the right to start again this season, and I will be absolutely fine if that’s the way that Klopp goes.
BUT, I’d prefer Gomez, because his skill set fits better with how we want to play.
Joe is MUCH faster than Matip. Because he’s faster, he can recover and cover better against counterattacks. This skill gives us the ability to push our defensive line significantly higher, as compared with how high a line we are likely to play with Matip. When we push the defensive line high, that compresses the space in the midfield and our opponent’s half. All the space is left behind our defensive line. When we do this, it becomes VERY difficult for teams to get out against us. We can swarm them, and we can create attacking opportunities when we get the ball back, even though the opposition is doing its best to park the bus. We can also outnumber them everywhere, because even the center backs become creative and attacking outlets as the defensive line gets pushed higher.
Obviously, playing such a high line creates risks. Against teams that pass as well as Man City, they WILL get behind your defense at some points during the match. That’s why JoGo’s recovery pace is so critical. It’s also critical that we have a keeper who is inclined to sweep up when through balls are attempted behind the center backs. And, of course we do. Finally, we also need a keeper who will confidently save a relatively high percentage of shots even when an attacker is through against him one-on-one. And we’ve got that guy.
___
What’s likely to happen this season?
I’ll start with the bad news: I do NOT think we will win the league. As great as we are, City is still deeper, still more talented overall, and still has the the intensity and intellect of Guardiola to keep them focused and motivated. It’s fascinating and compelling how Guardiola has latched onto Klopp and Liverpool as a huge motivator for himself and his team. He’s obsessed with us. And that obsession is passed onto his team by osmosis. When Man City beat us in the penalty shootout last Sunday, City celebrated more than they did when they won the FA Cup. They fear and respect LFC, and they’re dying to beat us. Unfortunately, I think that means they probably will.
Here’s the good news: I think we have a pretty good chance of being better this season than we were last year. Yes, last year we had some good fortune. The stats show that we overperformed in both attack and defense, based on expected goals. That’s a really important and informative stat, and it suggests that we should suffer from some regression to the mean this year. However, I think that there are some countervailing considerations that more than compensate for this potential statistical regression. First, we’re a year older and more experienced. With the exception of Milner and Lallana, who I believe are showing signs of age, the others are still in their primes (or just getting there). The Champions League win will paint a target on our backs, but it will also mean that we know how to win. This group is not scared of anyone, they have each other’s backs, and they have fun together. They are scary good. They can win in all kinds of different ways, and with all kinds of different personnel. Second, our midfield will be better this season with AOC and a more settled Naby Keïta. Naby has not really earned his status as my favorite player, but I expect him to do that this season. He’s more talented than anyone else in our midfield, and so, so exciting to watch. He appears to be stronger now, as well. If he manages to avoid giving away the ball as often in dangerous positions, then he will set the world afire. At the end of last year, before the adductor injury, he looked like he was almost there. And now he looks like he’s arrived. Meanwhile, we should remind ourselves that, before AOC’s injury, he was a regular starter and a critical part of our midfield. He’s our best presser, and that’s something in this group. He’s also one of the best passers in the league, although he’s highly underrated in that department. He doesn’t pass with much flair, but his chance creation stats are extremely good.
Barring significant injury, our defense will dominate again.
We are going to grind most of the league to dust. Either we will blow them away early with our spectacular attack, or we will patiently pass them to death before winning the war of attrition with a late goal in the second half.
At home, we haven’t lost a league match in more than two full seasons, and I don’t expect us to lose one at Anfield this year either.
Finally, I expect Klopp to play more aggressively in tied matches this year, so that we lose a few more matches but avoid drawing nearly as often. That will earn us more points.
With all of that in mind, I see the league once again turning into a very tight competition with City. I actually think it will take 100 points to win the league this year. And I think City will do it. Meanwhile, i expect us to get at least 95 points again.
