These two clubs have met only twice — both times in Champions League finals. In 2005 there was the Miracle in Istanbul, and Milan got its revenge two years later in Athens. That was an era when AC Milan spent several years at the top of world’s football food chain. AC Milan was managed by Carlo Ancelotti, and led by attacking mid Kaká (then considered the world’s best player by many), legendary midfielder Clarence Seedorf, and equally mythic center back Paolo Maldini. Liverpool, of course, were led by Rafa Benitez and Steven Gerrard.
That was then, this is now.
This season AC Milan enter Group B as the “Pot 4” representative, meaning that they are nominally the weakest team in the group. Having said that, they are no weak sister. Overall, Group B appears by far the strongest of the eight Champions League groups this season. Last season the “Rossoneri” finished second in Italy, just behind their derby rivals, Inter (for whom Romelu Lukaku was leading the line). Currently, just as LFC are tied for the top position in the Premier League, AC Milan are tied for first place in Serie A, having won their first three matches. Most recently, AC Milan beat a tough Lazio team by an impressive 2-0 scoreline.
Milan now wields two potent, albeit decrepit, offensive weapons, though one of them will miss today’s match. Both 34-year-old Olivier Giroud (currently out with COVID-19) and 39-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic now play for AC Milan. Giroud will be available today, after missing Sunday’s Serie A match at the tail end of a COVID-19 quarantine period. I expect him to start. Ibra is out with a strained Achilles.
Giroud doesn’t run much, but he never really did. And, as we saw for years in the Premier League, Giroud is highly skilled as a passer and scorer with both feet, and with his head. He is big, he has great touch, and, as always, today he will be a real threat.
Milan’s other forward, Ante Rebic, is more of a quick, get-behind-the-defense type of striker — the perfect complement to Giroud’s strong hold-up play and excellent passing.
I don’t know anything about AC Milan’s typical tactical approach these days. Nonetheless, with them coming to Anfield, I’ll be surprised if they don’t spend this match defending deep and looking to counterattack. My suspicion is that they will look to pass out from the back and have a bit more possession than most PL teams we play against, who tend to just hoof it past our midfield and hope for the best. I hope I’m right, because it would mean that we will have some chances to counter (and gegenpress) also.
Regardless of all that about Milan, we are Liverpool. And, to all appearances, this version of Liverpool is very much the real deal.
So far, LFC have scored nine times and given up only one goal, which was an extraordinary looping header from a difficult angle on a corner kick. Liverpool have not yet conceded from open play. On the xG front, we would have been expected to have both scored and conceded a couple more times. Our level of play has been elite. The sample size is small, and three of the four teams we’ve played so far may end up in the bottom half of the league. But I’m fully convinced we are back, and we are formidable.
The lineup will be interesting today.
I expect Joël Matip to get a rest, and that Konaté will start in his place. Matip has been nothing short of wonderful so far this season. For me, over the course of the four matches, he would be in the top three for our most consistent and high-level performers, along with Salah and Trent (and Alisson would be a close fourth). But, Matip has a very long history of muscle injuries. He should not be playing three times in a week. It will be fun to watch Konaté. My preseason impression of him: he’s a younger, faster version of Dejan Lovren. He’s very aggressive, and will sometimes get out of position as a result. But, his speed makes up for that most of the time.
The more intriguing center back question for me is whether VVD will also get a rest. I doubt it, but if I were the manager I would be very tempted to do it. Throughout most or all of preseason, Konaté and Gomez played as a pair. And, Gomez does not deserve to be relegated to League Cup duties this season. VVD is not getting any younger, and he could have more of a risk of muscle injuries because he may be subconsciously favoring his recovered knee.
However, VVD does not have a history of muscle injuries. Indeed, just the opposite. During our imperious run during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons, VVD played nearly every match in the PL and CL. Perhaps even more importantly, Van Dijk REALLY wants to play as many matches as possible. I don’t know if you saw VVD speak with Arlo, Dixon, and LaSaux pitch side after the Leeds match. During that interview, it was clear that Virgil knows he’s not yet back to where he was (despite Arlo starting the interview by exclaiming that he is), and VVD is desperate to play as often as possible to restore his timing to 100 percent as soon as he can. Finally, there’s this point: we’re a lot better when VVD plays. Even when he’s at 70% of himself (and he’s been better than that, at least after the first match), his presence changes our entire team balance in a VERY good way.
If VVD does start today, I wouldn’t be surprised if JoGo starts along with Matip on Saturday.
I think Robertson is likely to rest either today or on Saturday, but I’ll bet it’s Saturday. If Robbo starts, I look for Tsimikas to sub for him late.
In the midfield, I’m nearly certain Hendo will start. I’m confident that Fabinho will start. After that, the third man is anyone’s guess. Most fans want Thiago to get another start, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he does. I seriously doubt Thiago will start three matches this week, but I bet he’ll start two of them. And, my guess is that Thiago himself would prefer to start this one, as compared with Saturday’s league clash against Palace. However, the sports science would suggest that you would get the most out of him by resting him today and starting him on Saturday. If Thiago doesn’t start, Klopp can choose from Milner, Keïta, Jones, and Oxlade-Chamberlain. I think Thiago is the most likely of these, especially because we are allowed five subs in the Champions League. Klopp can plan to give him a 60-minute runout, without worrying that tactical needs or injuries would interfere with the plan to sub him out.
In the forward line, I’ll be very surprised if Salah and Mané don’t start, just because they would be difficult to manage otherwise. One of them may come off the bench against Palace (but maybe not — after the Palace match, they can have a long rest). In this match, I expect Jota to be rotated for another option, though it’s unclear who it will be. Jota is always great to have as an available substitute.
The three candidates for starting in Jota’s place appear to be Ox, Origi, and Minamino, who was back in full training yesterday. Firmino isn’t ready yet. Of those three, I think Klopp would choose Minamino if he were not coming off of the injury. But, with reality as it is, I expect Oxlade-Chamberlain to start. Origi appears to have been buried. I expect him to start in the League Cup, but for now it looks like he’s seventh choice as a forward.
If I’m right that Ox comes in for Jota, it will be interesting where everyone’s starting position is. I would guess that Ox would play as a “false nine,” in the Roberto Firmino tradition. But, he might start on the left or right, and Sadio or Mo could play through the middle.
Here’s my best guess, and it’s very much a guess:
I’ll go with:
LFC 2 – AC Milan 0
