LFC Season Preview – 2021-22
This is a Golden Era in Liverpool FC’s glittering history.
This spring, on a bitter fan forum populated by Evertonian Bitters, came a bitter but apt expression of our sweet golden experience as LFC fans:
“They can have more enjoyable moments in a week of football than we’ve had in 30 years. Everton are the most miserable club to support in this country. A combination of us being unable to have any high whatsoever compounded by them getting football miracles on a weekly basis season after season.”
– Anonymous Evertonian
Football miracles. As LFC fans we get them. Under Jürgen Klopp, we get them a lot. These miracles come in all varieties of shapes and sizes. Even last season, by far the worst of Klopp’s reign, ended with the miraculous floating to the top of the shit, giving it a marvelous shine and lovely scent.
Inspired by the anonymous Bitter’s bitter lament, The Anfield Wrap launched a series of podcast episodes under the label of “Liverpool Football Club Miracles.” The show has focused on the miraculous events of Klopp’s Golden Era, as each episode a group of four or five LFC fans discuss specific games and moments that have propelled us supporters beyond normal emotional heights into otherworldly ecstasy. Anfield Wrap boss Neil Atkinson originally set out to make this a three-part series. But, due to popular demand among both his own podcast team as well as the listening public, the series has now ballooned into six parts, and counting. You can now listen to more than five hours of rhapsodic remembrance of miraculous moments — all of which have occurred since October of 2015.
This is the Golden Era. And we are in the middle of it, not at its end. More miraculous moments await us. Our job is to savor them. Treasure them. Plant them in our memory garden, where we can harvest, enjoy, and replant them over the coming years. This is the Golden Era. The time is still now, and we have the privilege of experiencing it.
The next chapter in the saga of our current Golden Era begins now, as our mighty fallen rejoin the club.
Virgil Van Dijk is one of the 10 best players in the world. His presence dramatically changes the way that we play — not for any one reason, but for a whole slew of them. Let’s start at the beginning. The foundation. The primary job of every center back is to defend, and the fundamental prerequisite to defending well is positioning. Virgil’s reading of the game, anticipation, positioning, and tackling are unsurpassed. Indeed, he is so good that teams actively avoid attacking down his half of the field. He is so good that, for almost a full one-and-a-half seasons, no one, including Lionel Messi himself, was able to dribble past him. Now, in fairness, there are lots of other defenders in the world, and in the Premier League, who also have amazing skills in this particular area. Strikingly, some of those defenders play for teams in the bottom half of the Premier League. In this specific area, as fantastic as VVD is, his positioning and game-reading skills stand only inches above those of top rival defenders — not miles. Most of the gap between VVD and his nearest rivals is spanned by other skills and talents.
Physically, Van Dijk is a Hercules among mortals. As Watford striker Troy Deeney once mused about VVD, when asked who is the toughest defender he has faced: “He’s too big, too strong, too quick, too good on the ball, loves fighting, a good head of hair. One of those guys that sprays on his top as well, so it smells lovely!” VVD is bigger than most center backs, and faster than almost all of them. He wins a ridiculously high percentage of aerial duels, because his timing and leaping abilities exceed everyone else’s. This aerial dominance translates directly to points. Quite simply, we will concede fewer aerial goals with VVD on the pitch, and we will score more of them on the other end.
And then there’s Van Dijk’s speed. It’s critical, especially in the context of our high defensive line. When LFC loses the ball and the counterattack leaves open canyons of space behind the midfield, VVD’s speed, strength, positioning, timing, and calm quash most of those counters before they can fully unfold. Indeed, knowing that Van Dijk is behind him gives Andy Robertson (or, soon, Kostas Tsimikas) the peace of mind to commit fully to the attack, allowing Robbo can stand out as one of the most prodigious playmakers in the Premier League.
And that brings us to Virgil’s next exceptional trait: his mindset. 🎶“He’ll pass the ball, calm as you like, he’s Virgil Van Dijk, he’s Virgil Van Dijk.”🎶
Henderson is the skipper, and the heart of the club. Hendo’s graft and passion lift his mates, as well as his determination to persevere while walking through storms. But if Hendo is the heart, then VVD is both body and brain. He sees the whole field, and knows exactly what is happening. He conducts his defensive line, while also directing the midfield and urging the attackers forward. His mere presence envelops the team in a tranquil cloud of contagious calmness. He can and does make mistakes — not quite as often as most defenders, but still with some semi-regularity. But the apparent ease with which he recovers from those mistakes is anything but regular. His mentality is, if anything, more colossal than his physique. Van Dijk’s leadership is just as critical to LFC’s success as is Henderson’s.
The other critically-transformative aspect of Van Dijk’s game is his passing. I’m a sucker for any center back who passes well. This center back passes better than any other. The outlet ball in transition can make all the difference between a dull, stodgy possession and a thunderous counterattack. VVD’s skimmed passes into the feet of his midfielders, or all the way through to forwards, are sharp, timely, accurate missiles. And his cross-field diagonal aerial balls are majestic things of beauty, typically landing on the toes of a wide attacking forward or fullback, in perfect stride. Opposing teams often are forced to adjust their tactics simply to defend against this specific skill — the VVD diagonal pass. And any time you force the opposition to change the way they normally prefer to play, you substantially alter the overall dynamic of the match. As much as VVD’s presence helps our defense, his passing elevates our offense.
Indeed, no other player is as critical to LFC’s overall team balance as Virgil Van Dijk. When he is absent, everything changes. Without him, we are forced into adjustments all over the pitch. We have a lot of other extremely talented players, and they understand how to adjust. But those adjustments, especially over long stretches of the season, can never patch over the gaping hole that VVD’s absence creates.
In my opinion, if Virgil Van Dijk can go without significant injury this season, his return, all by itself, will bring Liverpool a full tier higher among the Premier League’s elite. Recall that, before VVD’s arrival, LFC struggled to finish in the PL’s Top Four, getting there by the skin of our teeth. But in Virgil’s first two-and-a-half seasons, LFC: 1) advanced to a CL final against Real Madrid; 2) secured 97 points in the Premier League, finishing one point behind a generationally-strong Man City team; 3) won a CL title against Spurs; and 4) won the Premier League title with a stunning 99-point total, finishing 18 points clear of second-place City. Last season, we finished in the Top Four by the skin of our teeth. This season, we may not win the title, even with a healthy Virgil. But, if he stays healthy, we will compete for it. And we’ll compete for the Big Ears trophy as well.
Now that I’ve spilled all of these superlatives about Virgil Van Dijk, any discussion of other returning players feels like an afterthought. But, it should not. First, it’s worth pointing out that Joe Gomez, Joël Matip, and (probably) Ibrahima Konaté are all elite CBs, who would each start for almost every other Premier League team. None of them were available for the bulk of last season.
Second, and more importantly, the long-term injuries of those other CBs meant that, for most of last season, LFC played without ANY available senior CBs. No team, including Man City, could weather such a loss without going through a massive slump. As devastating as VVD’s injury was, the subsequent injuries to Gomez and Matip were worse, at least when considered as a set. Every time Klopp set a lineup and sent out a team, he had to make dramatic adjustments to personnel and tactics in order to account for the void in the center of defense. For example, Trent and Robbo were selected far more often than was ideal for their fitness, to give the defense a bit more solidity, stability, and experience. But, while Trent and Robbo were out there game after game, tactically they were handcuffed. In each game the fullbacks either had to babysit inexperienced CBs, sacrificing their ability get forward in attack, and/or they had to cover gaps in the midfield left by the absence of Fabinho and/or Henderson, who were themselves covering at CB. This disruption to the fullbacks alone was more devastating to LFC’s team balance than even the absence of Virgil Van Dijk.
And, of course, the absence of any senior CBs created many other problems. Ozan Kabak had to learn our system on the fly, while partnered with Nat Phillips or Rhys Williams, neither of whom are at all suited to playing in a high defensive line. None of those three substitute CBs are fast, and none of them are particularly good on the ball. All of them are well behind Matip and Gomez when it comes to positioning and tackling skills. Phillips is a very good header of the ball, and he won a lot of aerial duels. In this sense, he was an improvement over Gomez and Matip. In every other respect, however, all of the various substitute CBs were a substantial downgrade compared with both of them.
Last, but certainly not least, the CB crisis last season took Fabinho and Henderson out of their preferred midfield slots for much of the season. In hindsight, this decision turned out to be what was probably a tactical error by Klopp. Fabinho and Henderson were (probably) better CBs than the other available options. However, neither Gini, Milner, nor newcomer Thiago can marshal the defensive midfield in any way close to Fabinho, or even Henderson (who is also better in a more advanced midfield role). As we saw at the end, when Klopp finally restored Fabinho to the midfield, the team surged, despite playing Williams and Phillips at CB. As it turns out, I think last season showed that Fabinho’s absence in midfield was the second-most important absence we felt last season, after VVD. The midfield is the engine. It sets the tempo of the offense, and it provides the heart of the press. None of it worked right last year, and everyone either played in an unfamiliar position, played with tactical handcuffs, or both. Watch Thiago thrive this season, now that he will be freed of much of his defensive responsibilities from last year. Thiago is a magical footballer, but last season he was forced to stuff his wand in the back pocket much of the time, while he threw his body all over the pitch in an effort to put out fires defensively.
All of this, along with the physical and emotional grind of last season, had knock-on effects on our attack. Sadio Mané stayed healthy, but still had by far his worst season in a Liverpool shirt. Roberto Firmino worked his ass off as usual, and most of his underlying stats stayed as exceptional, as always. But his finishing stunk. Mo Salah was outstanding, in spite of it all, even by his own ridiculous standards. And Diogo Jota was also great, when he was available. It’s possible that Firmino and/or Mané have begun downward slides because of their ages, but I think it’s unlikely. Firmino will turn 30 in October, and Mané will turn 30 in April. The general data about footballers’ age-related declines suggests that both Firmino and Mané should still be in the last stages of their prime years, which means that last season’s poor performances were probably statistical blips. I think they will both be back to normal this season, and their preseason performances suggest exactly that.
Given the extent to which injuries disrupted LFC’s team balance last season, it was indeed a football miracle that the Reds managed to finish third. Those injured players are back, and they are healthy. They are all likely a bit rusty, and will likely not perform at their peak from the outset. But their mere presence on the pitch will restore balance, and will make LFC far more effective as a team. Because they are back, LFC will be back. Other squads have made (probable) upgrades to their personnel during the transfer window, but none of those personnel changes is likely to be even close to as transformative as the return of LFC’s center backs (supplemented by the addition of Konaté). The Premier League should tremble.
We also have reason to believe that LFC’s “Mentality Monsters” will have their psychological resilience and edge restored in the coming year. For a full two seasons, LFC maintained a level of focus and intensity that was nearly unbelievable. Unsurprisingly, having sustained that psychological high for so long, after achieving their goals of winning both Champions League and Premier League titles, last season their psyches fell off a cliff mid-season. But, this may be one of the silver linings from last year’s debacle. The team fell so far that it should add motivation. They are now underdogs again. They have been to the top, fallen far, and will want to return to the summit.
Of course, just as not even Virgil Van Dijk is perfect, neither is any team. Certainly not this one. As we’ve discussed, LFC may have difficulty covering for the departed Gini Wijnaldum. And, LFC’s options in the forward line are also more limited than is ideal, which is likely to be especially problematic during the African Cup of Nations in January/February. I continue to worry that our options at reserve right back, behind Trent, are not good enough. Joe Gomez and James Milner may again be called into service, unless Neco Williams can make a big leap.
This summer, FSG’s decision (so far) not to fix these potential weaknesses in the squad have drawn out the critics in LFC’s fanbase. As always, diatribes and invective have flown freely.
On this front, one limitation on transfers is worth noting: Premier League rules require that a maximum of 25 senior players be named in a squad (players under the age of 21 do not count against this list of 25), and no more than 17 of those 25 players may be “non-homegrown.” To be classified as homegrown, one must be on an English team for at least three years before the age of twenty-one (regardless of your citizenship). Currently, of the 25 senior players on LFC’s roster, exactly 17 of them are “non-homegrown.” Thus, in order for LFC to bring in a foreign player, at least one current foreign player must leave.
As the club has attempted in the previous two summers, this summer LFC has again made some apparent efforts to sell backup forwards Divock Origi and Xherdan Shaqiri. Both of them have provided some great moments for the club, but injuries, age, and skill limitations make them both less than ideal. As of this writing, there are rumors that Shaqiri will get sold, but no current links for Origi.
Meanwhile, some of the extant LFC fringe players have made strong cases for themselves during preseason as the best “fillers” for the gaps in midfield and attack. Taki Minamino, Naby Keïta, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Harvey Elliott have all had strong to very strong preseasons. Notably, AOC and Elliott (and arguably Minamino as well) can play in both midfield and attack. Preseason is only preseason, and it’s highly unlikely that all four of those players will play a significant role in the coming year. But, they all unquestionably have a lot of talent. They are all still young. I bet that at least one or two of that group WILL play a major role at points during the season.
Finally, as we have recently discussed, even if LFC fails to freshen the team with significant transfers this summer, management will need to do so soon because the team is getting too old. We need more young blood — specifically, we need more players in the 22 to 25-year-old range.
In sum, my season preview: The Golden Era is now. The balance has been restored. The Reds are back, and the battle for another league title is very much on. Naysayers be damned. Naysayers will be proven wrong.
