The European Champs are comin’ to town. They come into Anfield having won their first two matches by scores of 3-0 and 2-0 (over Crystal Palace and Arsenal, respectively) — exactly the same as the Reds. Chelsea’s xG difference is better — they are at 3.88 xG differential; we’re currently sitting on a 2.41 xG differential.
Currently, Chelsea is ranked slightly above LFC in fivethirtyeight.com’s model. That model rates Chelsea at 89.6, and LFC at 88.7. The model currently assigns Man City a 34% probability of winning the PL, while Chelsea is at 24% and LFC 23%. Man United trails that group by a distance, at a mere 9%.
Manager Thomas Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard on January 26, 2021. Tuchel IMMEDIATELY transformed Chelsea’s defense. He set the team up in a three-centerback formation with attacking wingbacks (typically the formation is a 3-4-3, or 3-4-2-1). Ever since, Chelsea have conceded VERY few goals. Chelsea have played 21 Premier League matches under Tuchel, and have given up a grand total of 13 goals. Over the same time frame, the next stingiest defense in the PL belongs to Brighton & Hove Albion, which has conceded 18 times.
Tuchel’s ability to immediately turn around the defense of the same team that had been struggling defensively under Lampard speaks volumes about both Tuchel and Lampard. Tuchel’s previous managing stops have included Paris St. Germain and Borussia Dortmund, where he was the successor to Jürgen Klopp, and lost the 2016 Europa League semifinal to Klopp in a match that sits in the Anfield Pantheon of great European nights. At PSG, Tuchel struggled to make all the superstars and personalities work, just as all the other cavalcade of managers there over the past five to 10 years have also struggled. They win Ligue 1 almost every year, but they have yet to break through with a Champions League trophy. I don’t think that failure says much about Tuchel, in light of the similar failures of many other highly-touted and highly-experienced managers at PSG.
Last season, although Chelsea’s defense was almost impenetrable under Tuchel, they didn’t score very much — managing only 25 goals in 19 PL matches. The Reds, by comparison, despite all of their injuries, scored 31 Premier League goals last season over that same span. Indeed, Chelsea’s scoring difficulties are illustrated by the fact that their leading scorer last season in the PL was midfield maestro Jorginho, with seven goals (all from penalty kicks). Timo Werner, who LFC coveted so strongly, had a poor season last year for the Blues, scoring only six times in the Premier League. Compare that with Werner’s last season in the Bundesliga, where he scored 28 goals in 34 league appearances for RB Leipzig.
But, during this transfer window Chelsea have taken a major step toward solving their goal-scoring issues. They have brought Romelu Lukaku back “home” to where he began his Premier League career. It’s easy to belittle Chelsea for paying $126 million for the same player they sold to Everton for $39 million seven years ago. But, as you understand quite well, the relevant question for analyzing the current Lukaku deal has nothing to do with how much Chelsea got for him in the past. The question is whether the current version of Lukaku will provide good value for Chelsea’s current team going forward. On this front, I believe Chelsea have bought quite wisely. Indeed, although Man City may garner a lot more headlines for their acquisitions of Jack Grealish and (possibly) Cristiano Ronaldo, I believe that, by acquiring Lukaku, Chelsea have done far more in the transfer market to make themselves better.
Romelu Lukaku has always been a very good-to-great goal scorer. He has always had a rare combination of size, speed, strength, and skill. However, the current version of Lukaku brings some new benefits to Chelsea, which the 2014 version of Lukaku did not have in his bag. Obviously, Lukaku now has a lot more experience. He has played hundreds of matches in the Premier League, Serie A, and the Champions League since his last stint at Chelsea. Based on last season at Inter Milan, this more-experienced Lukaku has added great playmaking to go along with his great goal scoring. He had 10 assists in Serie A for Inter last season, when his highest assist total in any other league season had been 7.
Lukaku is very difficult to handle. He’s great at heading the ball, and he knows how to use his body and strength to shrug off defenders in the box. His dominant left footed shot is deadly, but he still scores almost as many with his right.
Obviously, Lukaku will often occupy the attention of multiple defenders, often including both CBs. This will open space for other players to run behind. For example, if Werner also plays, then Lukaku will use his bulk to post-up, hold the ball, and slip little through passes to the onrushing Werner. Ditto for other forwards and midfielders, such as the young Kai Havertz or Mason Mount. Fortunately for us, Christian Pulisic is out for this match with a COVID diagnosis.
What will we do against them?
My guess is that both teams will play this pretty conservatively. If I’m right, goals are likely to be difficult to come by.
I’m confident that Robbo will rejoin Trent, VVD, and Matip in the back line. I’m confident that Henderson will start in midfield, and I also think Keïta is a probable starter. Given that Fabinho is critical, and has been in training this week, I would guess that he will also start. However, so far Fabinho has played only 30 minutes of football. It’s possible that his lack of match fitness and/or psychological fitness could leave Fabs on the bench, in favor of Elliott, AOC, Curtis Jones, or Thiago (who has played even fewer minutes than Fabinho).
Mané and Salah will obviously start on our flanks, but it’s anybody’s guess whether Firmino or Jota starts as the #9. My preference, and my guess, is that Firmino will start. Firmino provides more stability in possession, playmaking, and slightly better pressing. Plus, I like the idea of bringing the Agent of Chaos on in the waning minutes.
I’m guessing that we will press a lot, but that it will NOT be a very high press most of the time. I’m guessing that we will also quickly drop back into a deeper formation immediately after Chelsea has broken the press.
If Fabinho can play 90 minutes in this one, and play well, I very much like our chances. We’re at Anfield, our players have had more time together than theirs (both overall and during this preseason), and I think our first 11 is better than theirs. I also think we’re on a mission.
I’m guessing there will be no more than two goals scored in this match.
I’m going with LFC 1 – Chelsea 0.
