Happy New Year!
A week ago I posted these words:
most LFC fans yearn for the club to spend some money this January on a forward, given Liverpool’s current shortage of attackers. But I think that’s unlikely. Díaz and Jota will be back soon, and along with Darwin, they make up a relatively young long-term attacking core. Klopp and company will not want to displace that core merely to cover a short-term need over the next few months.
That aged really well, eh? The very next day, news broke that Liverpool had signed Cody Gakpo, a 23-year-old Dutch forward from PSV Eindhoven in the Dutch Eredivisie.
In my defense, this signing was not merely a short-term fix. Although there’s plenty of reason to believe that the injuries to Díaz and Jota helped motivate Liverpool to advance the timing of this transfer, it’s also clear that the Reds had a long-term plan in place to acquire Gakpo, regardless of any injuries.
You may have already seen or heard a lot of analysis about Cody Gakpo, in which case you should feel free to skip the next section.
What Will Cody Gakpo Bring To Liverpool?
There’s no doubt that Gakpo should quickly get the chance to show what he’s got on the left side of Liverpool’s attack. Long-term, he may also play a significant role for Liverpool in a more central position.
Like Luis Díaz, Gakpo is a right-footed speedster who usually starts as a left-sided forward. Gakpo also serves a similar function in the team to Díaz. Both of them are highly-skillful dribblers whose trickery and pace give defenders headaches as they cut in from their wide left position. Both of them are good passers. Indeed, this season alone, in 14 appearances in the Eredivisie, Gakpo provided an eye-popping 12 assists. Even more impressively, across all competitions during the 2022-23 season, Gakpo currently has 17 assists in 24 total appearances.
And, similar to Díaz’s performances in Portugal, Gakpo also has quite the eye for a goal. In all comps this season, Gakpo is sitting on 13 goals in 24 appearances for PSV. Likewise, playing more centrally for the Netherlands in the World Cup last month, Gakpo scored three goals in five starts. Gakpo’s goal tally this season looks a lot like the 14 goals Díaz gathered in 18 Portuguese Primeira league appearances last season before joining Liverpool.
Unlike Díaz, Gakpo is quite tall. Indeed, at 6’4″, Gakpo is one of the tallest wingers around. It’s not clear, however, that Gakpo typically makes great use of his height advantage, at least to this point in his young career. Of his 36 career goals in the Eredivisie, only one was a header.
Given that Díaz and Gakpo have such similar profiles and ages, one can reasonably question how LFC’s management envisions that the two of them will fit together when both are healthy. On that front, the declining age, performance, and expiring contract of Roberto Firmino may provide a hint.
Regardless of whether Firmino renews his contract (and apparently the two sides are now negotiating), it’s clear that Bobby is no longer the player he once was. To be sure, Firmino’s goal output has been tremendous this season. Firmino has nine goals across 20 appearances in all competitions. But, despite playing as the nominal striker, Bobby’s primary job in Liverpool’s front line has never been to score goals.
When Liverpool have the ball, Firmino’s role has been to drop deep into the midfield, creating space for the two wide forwards (typically Mané and Salah — but more recently also Díaz and Jota) to run past him into the box. From Firmino’s deeper position, he has been a virtuoso creator for his teammates. Firmino’s clever passing and nimble dribbling have sparked dozens of goals for his teammates from both counterattacks and in slower build-up play.
Finally, Firmino’s biggest contributions for Liverpool have arguably been when the Reds do NOT have the ball. As the leader of the press, Firmino was key to the Reds’ epoch-defining intensity. Now, Firmino simply no longer has the legs to reach anywhere near the intensity levels in the press that he once did.
Either Gakpo or Díaz might be the best candidates to replace Firmino’s former role as the “false nine.” Now that Darwin Núñez is here, Liverpool clearly will not play with a false nine much of the time. But surely Klopp would like to have that option available, so that Liverpool’s tactical plan and approach can change on a dime. Even when Núñez is playing, he has shown that he can start on the left wing and still be quite effective when playing alongside a false nine such as Firmino. And, of course, Núñez won’t always be playing.
I expect that Díaz is most likely to be Firmino’s heir apparent in the false nine slot, and that Gakpo will spend more time in the left-sided forward spot. But, maybe Gakpo will be that guy. Regardless of who it is, as always, Liverpool’s forwards will do a lot of interchanging. Having two threatening attacking players alongside Mo Salah — in some combination of Jota, Díaz, Núñez, and Gakpo — is always a good thing.
I would also guess that at least one of Jota, Díaz, and/or Gakpo will spend some time playing as the right-sided forward in order to give Mo Salah his occasionally necessary rest (or when Salah is injured).
In sum, Gakpo is an exciting signing, and he looks the part of a dangerous attacker in a Jürgen Klopp system. He probably will need some time to develop the off-the-ball pressing skills that Klopp wants, but he looks ready-made to provide significant attacking threat from the start.
But Cody Gakpo Does Not Solve LFC’s Midfield Woes
However successful Gakpo’s signing may be, it’s unlikely to make much of an impact on Liverpool’s problems in midfield. Arguably Gakpo’s presence frees up Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to drop back into the midfield, but it has appeared to me that Klopp does not particularly want AOC to play midfield any more, unless absolutely necessary.
And speaking of midfield problems, it’s time that we talked about Harvey Elliott.
Elliott is a remarkably gifted attacking midfielder. His dribbling skills, vision, and passing are all incredible for a teenager. In my opinion, Elliott is plenty good enough to play as an attacking midfielder in a great team, if that great team plays in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 system that utilizes central or wide attacking midfielders. So long as Elliott has two more defensively-minded midfielders behind him to provide cover, he’s an absolute gift of a player.
BUT
Liverpool generally play without attacking midfielders, in a 4-3-3 system that requires all three central midfielders to perform Herculean roles off-the-ball. Yes, the deepest midfielder in Klopp’s 4-3-3 probably has the most ground to cover, since he has responsibility for the entire width of the pitch. Nonetheless, because Klopp’s fullbacks spend so much time advancing high up the pitch when the Reds have possession, the two more advanced central midfielders (the so-called “#8s” in the 4-3-3) must cover huge swaths of the pitch when the Reds lose the ball.
The advanced mids in Klopp’s system need to cover for each other, and they also need to cover for the fullbacks on their side. They need to know when to push forward and press, and when to drop back. They must clog the passing lanes, and they need to be physical — able to win numerous duels both on the ground and in the air.
Harvey Elliott is good at none of that. He’s not competent to play the #8 role in Klopp’s system. When Elliott plays in that role, his presence puts the entire team out of balance. The deepest midfielder is put under too much stress, because he is forced to try to cover both his own defensive job and Elliott’s. And, because Elliott’s pressing is mostly ineffective, the opposition has far more time, space, and opportunity to pick out passes that cut Liverpool apart on the break.
Harvey Elliott has certainly not been Liverpool’s only midfield problem this season. Fabinho has played far below his best, as has Henderson. Thiago has also had a few stinkers. But, in my opinion, all of Fabinho, Henderson, and Thiago would have been better across this season if they did not have to worry about playing alongside Elliott much of the time.
In the short-term, Naby Keïta should play in Elliott’s spot when Henderson is not there. Curtis Jones and James Milner can hopefully provide some backup for Thiago on the left side, and Keïta can also provide backup for Thiago when Henderson is playing on the right.
If the Reds need a goal late, then bringing on Elliott in a midfield role in the 4-3-3 as an emergency option may be necessary. Otherwise, I would prefer that Elliott only play if the Reds choose to shift to a 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 formation.
But, I expect that Klopp will continue to play Elliott as a midfielder in the 4-3-3, and I will continue to be frustrated. Sigh.
What Should We Expect from LFC Tomorrow?
With only two days of rest since the lackluster performance against Leicester City, the Reds are badly in need of bringing fresh legs into the lineup. Failing to rotate the team tomorrow not only promises another fatigued performance, but also creates serious risk of incurring further injuries. The Reds certainly cannot afford that. In addition, LFC’s opponent tomorrow, Brentford, is one of the most physical, tall, and direct teams in the league. Klopp will want to adjust his lineup to account for Brentford’s physicality, independently of the need to rotate for fitness reasons.
So, I expect a fair number of changes.
I’m excited that Ibrahima Konaté will likely return to the lineup alongside Virgil van Dijk. Ibou has not yet played many minutes for Liverpool this season. But, while he’s been out there, in my opinion he’s been the best defender on the team. I also believe Konaté may have been the best defender in the World Cup this year, even though his manager benched him for the final. He’s already developed into one of the best center backs in the world, and he is only 23 years old. Developmentally, he’s ahead of the trajectory of world-class teammate van Dijk.
Nothing against Joël Matip, but in my book he’s well behind Konaté. Matip might make fewer mistakes, though I’m not certain that’s true. But even if Konaté makes more mistakes than Matip, Ibou more than makes up for that with the edge he has over Matip physically. Like the six-million dollar man, Konaté is stronger, faster, and better. He jumps higher, shrugs attackers off like flies, and recovers in a flash on the occasions that someone gets behind him. In possession, Matip is a better dribbler, but Konaté is at least Matip’s equal as a passer, and is a good dribbler as well. Konaté has no significant weaknesses. Matip, meanwhile, is quite slow — probably below Premier League average speed for a CB.
Given that the pale shadow of what once was Joe Gomez has been starting at CB most of this season, Liverpool will be greatly improved by a starting tandem of van Dijk and Konaté.
I expect Tsimikas to start at left back. Robertson suffered a “dead leg” injury against Leicester, and he needs the rest in any event.
With Tsimikas on the left, I think Trent is likely to keep his spot on the right. But it wouldn’t be shocking if Gomez starts at right back. If Trent starts, I expect Gomez to sub on for him at some point.
Fabinho should return to the lineup after missing the Leicester match for the birth of a child. I’m hoping that Naby Keïta starts in place of Thiago, and Henderson starts on the right. Both Thiago and Henderson would ideally be rested, but Klopp probably can’t afford to do that. I expect Keïta to start in place of Thiago, only because a combination of Keïta and Thiago would be too short against the Brentford giants.
Up front, Núñez and Salah will probably be run into the ground, which is a huge risk. Salah has been an iron man, but I hate to tempt fate, especially as he gets older. Meanwhile, Núñez has NOT demonstrated iron man tendencies, but his running and ability to serve as a passing outlet has already become critical to Liverpool’s attack. He is so fast that his presence changes the shape of the defense dramatically, opening up the attack in a very potent fashion. When Liverpool actually start scoring some of those big chances, the goals will come in a flood.
On the left, I doubt that Gakpo will start on his very first day with the team. But he might, because we need him. I do expect Gakpo to at least make an appearance from the bench. EDIT: apparently the paperwork for Gakpo’s work permit may not yet be processed in time for him to appear tomorrow. So, he may not make the bench after all. Assuming Gakpo doesn’t start, it will probably be Oxlade-Chamberlain again. Brentford’s physicality is a very bad match for Fabio Carvalho. EDIT: I somehow managed to forget about Roberto Firmino, despite writing multiple paragraphs about him in this very post. He may be available tomorrow. If he is, he should start, with Darwin moving over to the left (but cutting in behind Bobby constantly).
This game will be a very difficult one for the Reds. Brentford are strong, fast, and their manager knows exactly how to exploit LFC’s weaknesses.
I expect both teams to score. I’m just hoping LFC can manage at least one more than the Bees.
Brentford 1 – LFC 2
