Store Wednesday’s Fun Memories in a Safe Place
For 45 minutes on Wednesday, it was quite fun to be a Liverpool fan once again.
Please hold onto that feeling. It may not last long.
On Sunday, the team that Jürgen Klopp (quite reasonably) describes as the “best football team in the world” march into Anfield. They bring with them the man that Jürgen Klopp (quite reasonably) calls “the best striker in the world.” At their helm is the manager who Jürgen Klopp has repeatedly (and quite reasonably) enshrined as “the best manager in the world.” And, oh yes, they also bring with them a 13-point lead in the Premier League table over a foundering Liverpool team.
But all hope is not lost. Historically, whether Klopp and Guardiola have faced one another in the Bundesliga or the Premier League, the games have generally been hotly contested, narrow affairs. Klopp’s intense gegenpressing provides the best possible counter-measure against Guardiola’s preferred “pass-you-to-death” tactics. And, in the Community Shield match that took place in August but now feels like it was a million years ago, Liverpool outplayed City and earned a win. Yes, that match is arguably only a glorified exhibition. But both teams certainly appeared to be giving it their all.
That was then. This is now.
Manchester City Is the Perfect Team to Exploit Liverpool’s Defensive Frailties
Liverpool’s defense has been dreadful this season. Fatigue, injuries, tactical issues, and individual errors have all conspired to make me feel like the opposing team is going to score every time they attack. And it’s not just been one type of frailty that has emerged. Liverpool have been wide open to counterattacks, but Liverpool have also been carved open when defending deep in their own box.
Over the past two weeks, Liverpool have looked better than they had previously, since Klopp switched from LFC’s trademark 4-3-3 formation to a 4-2-4 (you could alternatively label the new formation as either a 4-4-2 or a 4-2-3-1). Nonetheless, even after the formational change, LFC’s defensive frailties have persisted, even if they have been less frequent.
Even on Wednesday, against a team that had failed to score a single goal in its first three Champions League games this season, Liverpool allowed Rangers to open the scoring. Rangers broke open Liverpool’s defense on a counterattack after the Reds gave the ball away under pressure in the midfield. Once Rangers recovered the ball, they put together a series of quick passing combinations that ultimately led to a striker being through on goal against a beleaguered Alisson Becker.
Against Arsenal, Liverpool generally played quite well for almost the entire first half (the second half was a very different story). But despite the Reds’ strong performance for 98% of the first half, they still managed to make gung-ho mistakes at the very start and the very end of the half, both of which resulted in goals for Arsenal.
Physical errors, mental errors, and tactical errors — we’ve been guilty of them all. The shitshows of defensive displays against both Napoli and Brighton found teams opening up Liverpool’s defense repeatedly by using short, quick passing combinations.
Now, Liverpool face the team that feels like it invented short, quick passing combinations. That’s Man City’s thing. That’s what they do. They have always done it exceedingly well. And now, many of those quick passing combinations result in a shot by Erling Haaland, the deadliest striker in world football at the moment, by some distance.
As you may have gathered, I’m not brimming with optimism for this one. Much stranger things have happened in the Premier League than Liverpool winning at Anfield on Sunday against City. But that doesn’t mean I expect it to happen.
How Will We Set Up?
Last week I predicted that Liverpool would revert to the 4-3-3 against Arsenal and Manchester City, because those teams could dominate possession if they outnumber the Reds in central midfield. While my reasoning remains sound, I’ve changed my mind about what Klopp will do on Sunday based on his decision to stick with the 4-2-4 formation in both matches since then.
My impression at the moment is that Klopp will continue to play primarily or exclusively with the new 4-2-4 formation at least until the Reds start looking more like themselves on a consistent basis. I could be wrong — and I’m likely to be wrong if the Reds’ freefall continues despite Klopp’s shift in formation. At some point Klopp will give up on this latest tactical approach in favor of another one if the Reds’ fortunes don’t take an upswing. I’m hoping and betting, however, that that upswing in fortune will occur while Klopp is still giving it a go with the 4-2-4. If it happens that way, then I think Klopp might eventually begin mixing in both the 4-2-4 and the 4-3-3, depending on circumstances the Reds face within specific matches.
For Sunday, however, I expect to see 4-2-4 again. I won’t be shocked if we get a return to the 4-3-3, but I will be surprised.
At the back, Matip and Trent are both out with injuries. Reports said that Konaté didn’t train with the team today, but I hope and expect that was just a rest day for him. If either Konaté, Gomez, or van Dijk suffer injuries while both Matip and Trent are still out, the Reds will be in deep doo-doo. Theoretical backup right back Calvin Ramsay has been injured almost the entire time he’s been with the club. He made a couple of recent appearances on Liverpool’s bench, but has now disappeared again with another injury. We’ve seen Milner fill in at right back this season, with disastrous results. Gomez is the only good option at this point.
After playing about 30 minutes on Wednesday, I expect Andy Robertson to retake his starting position at left back on Sunday, hopefully alongside VVD and together with Konaté and Gomez.
In midfield, Henderson started both of the last two matches as half of the double pivot in central midfield — once with Fabinho and once with Thiago. Having played all of those minutes, I expect Henderson will be rotated to the bench on Sunday. This means that Liverpool is likely to start with Fabinho and Thiago in the double pivot. For what it’s worth, I think those two are probably the ideal pair for Liverpool to play in this new formation.
Fabinho has looked quite poor by his standards through most of this season. Like much of the team, both Fabinho’s legs and his brain have appeared to be running through quicksand. His positioning, tackling, and passing have all been off. But, against Rangers I thought Fabinho looked much better, though still not close to his glittering best. In my estimation Thiago has been LFC’s best midfielder overall this season, but that’s a low bar. Thiago has sparkled at times, but has also had games in which his passing has been poor and he’s given the ball away repeatedly. Although Thiago’s not well-known for his defensive contributions, I think he’s been the best of a very poor midfield group on that front.
Who Will Start Up Front?
For me, by far the greatest intrigue relating to Sunday’s lineup is who will start across the four-man forward line, and where. Much of Liverpool’s second-half joy on Wednesday came after Klopp subbed Mo Salah in for Darwin Núñez in a central striker’s role. Although Salah has played as the center forward for Klopp in the past, we haven’t seen it for several seasons. Given Salah’s poor goal production up to this point this season, I had been hoping that Klopp might shift him inside at some point while using the new 4-2-4/4-4-2/4-2-3-1 system.
On Wednesday it happened, and Salah responded by producing the fastest hat trick in Champions League history — three goals in six minutes and 12 seconds. To be fair, the goalkeeper arguably should have saved at least two, if not all three of Mo’s shots. As great as Rangers’ keeper had been at Anfield, he was equally awful at Ibrox. But regardless of any of the keeper’s faux pas, Salah certainly appeared rejuvenated in the new position and role.
I say long may it continue.
I don’t have a great sense of what Klopp will do with the forward line on Sunday, but here’s what I would do in his place: start Diogo Jota on the left, Salah in the middle, Firmino just behind/beside Salah, and Elliott on the right. I would have Darwin Núñez on the bench, ready and waiting for his chance to come in and disrupt the match in the second half.
Of course, it may not matter much who Liverpool starts in its forward line, if Man City always has the ball. That’s a genuine threat on any occasion, and even moreso if Liverpool proceed with only two central midfielders against City’s 27 (or so).
I hope the Reds can build on Wednesday’s second half to pull a balanced performance out of a hat on Sunday. We know they’re capable of doing it. And, Virgil van Dijk has a spotless record in Premier League games at Anfield that he needs to defend.
But I just don’t expect it to happen.
Liverpool 1 – Man City 4
