Jürgen Klopp at today’s press conference: “It’s final, after final, after final.”
This is a grind. Tomorrow is the next most important game of the season. After that, if Liverpool do as well as they hope to, Liverpool will again be forced to face their most important game of the season 17 more times over the next 75 days.
We do not have to win all of those matches to walk away from this season with multiple trophies. Indeed, we don’t even need to win all of those matches to walk away with the unprecedented “quadruple.” But every time the Reds fail to win over the next 12 to 18 matches, it will probably feel to the players, the staff, and to us, like we have lost a final.
This is a grind.
The media have hyped up tomorrow’s match, and with some good reason. Both teams are in excellent form. Both teams play exciting football. Both teams have wonderful pedigrees and large followings in the United States.
But, for me, tomorrow’s game is no more special than Saturday’s was. I think it’s more important that Sunday’s game at Nottingham Forest, because I think the FA Cup holds far less importance than the Premier League. But I don’t think tomorrow’s match is any more or less important than any of the remaining league games — except, of course for the trump card of a game against City.
Tomorrow’s game is just another in the long procession of must-win matches. This is a grind.
I feel pretty good about this one, although Arsenal clearly pose a very real threat. Since Arteta took Arsenal’s reins in December 2019, the Reds have faced them in the Premier League on four occasions. Arteta won the first meeting at the Emirates in the summer of 2020 (after the restart), by a score of 2-1. The Reds have won the other three by scores of 3-1, 0-3, and 0-4. Thus, in the Premier League during Arteta’s reign, the Reds have scored 11 and allowed 3 against Arsenal over four matches.
In other competitions over the same time frame, the Reds have bested Arsenal in the League Cup semifinal over two legs this season (2-0 on aggregate), and lost a penalty shootout in the fourth round of the League Cup in October 2020 (0-0 after 90 minutes).
Apart from their first league meeting, when Arsenal defended deep and set up to counterattack, Arteta has mostly played aggressively against Liverpool, and his team has typically been punished for it. Arteta’s teams, like Manchester City where Arteta served as Guardiola’s right hand, look to press their opponent hard on defense, and with the ball they look to carve the opposition apart mostly with short passes and quick combinations. They also like to play out from the back, using quick short passes to play their way through and around any opposition pressing.
Arteta’s approach does not exploit Liverpool’s weaknesses. Indeed, to the contrary, Liverpool typically thrive when the opponent uses those tactics.
By contrast to Arteta’s typical approach, Liverpool’s defensive weaknesses are exploited when the opponent quickly breaks the offside trap in transition. That is, LFC are vulnerable when the opponent recovers the ball, and then very quickly and directly — typically with long passes/clearances/“second balls” — sends the ball over the midfield to an attacker running behind the high Liverpool defensive line. There are more subtle (and arguably more effective) ways of exploiting that same LFC weakness — West Ham, Spurs, and Chelsea this season have all successfully used some version of a technique where, as soon as they recover the ball, they ping the ball around quickly with one or two short passes in midfield and/or on the wing, while sending one or two attackers on diversionary “false runs” behind the defense, before a second or third attacker — perhaps coming from midfield — then makes the decisive run behind the defensive line to break the offside trap. In this scenario, not only are the initial “dummy runners” distracting to LFC’s defenders, but quickly pinging the ball around before launching the decisive pass can be a good strategy because it potentially gives the passer more space and time to make that critical pass.
I believe Arteta is a smart guy, and I think it’s quite possible that he will change his approach tomorrow to try and minimize LFC’s strengths and exploit their weaknesses. Maybe he will tell his guys NOT to try to play out from the back against Liverpool’s press. Maybe he will use a very quick, direct approach to break LFC’s offside trap. But, based on recent history, I doubt it will happen.
Clearly, Arsenal can still draw or win against Liverpool, using Arteta’s typical, preferred tactics. They are a good team. They have lots of creative players and scoring threats. Their defense has improved significantly this season. All of that makes them a strong opponent and credible threat, regardless of Arteta’s tactics. But, if Arteta sticks with his usual game plan, Liverpool are likely to have a lot more xG in this match than Arsenal will. The opportunities will be there for LFC, and they are likely to be fairly limited for Arsenal. As good as they are, we are much, much better.
If, on the other hand, Arteta pragmatically decides to take a fresh, more direct tactical approach tomorrow, then I think the game is more likely to be quite close.
We will see.
Milner and Tsimikas are apparently out with illness (presumably COVID). Konaté is back, and the rest of the squad should also be available.
Salah apparently trained today, but I expect him to be on the bench to start this one, in light of his foot strain at the end of the Brighton match, along with the huge number of minutes he’s racked up over the last few months. If I’m right, then I’ll guess that Jota, Firmino, and Mané start in the forward line. Firmino is dubious as a starting choice, since he didn’t even get in the game on Saturday, which was his first game back in the squad after a relatively long layoff with an adductor injury. But, I still think Firmino is a likely starter because I doubt Klopp will want to start Díaz again — he’s played a lot of minutes lately. And not only does Mo need a rest, but I also don’t think Klopp will want to risk aggravating the foot injury by starting Mo tomorrow. Having said that, I will nonetheless NOT be shocked if either Díaz and/or Salah start. There’s a pretty strong argument that Díaz has been our best attacking player since he arrived. And Mo is a freakin’ machine, and he will definitely NOT want to be rested. So, basically, it could be almost any combination of three from our five top forwards.
In midfield, I expect Fabinho to start. I expect Thiago to start. The third midfielder will probably be either Henderson or Keïta. In recent weeks Keïta appears to have played himself into position as the “fourth” midfielder, after Thiago, Fabinho, and Henderson. Still, I’m going to guess Hendo starts this one, even though I think he too could use a rest.
Our defense should remain the same.
So, my predicted lineup:
Despite my confidence, I think this game will probably be close.
Arsenal 1 – LFC 2
