This is the first half of an actual elimination scenario. Yet it feels to me, as a fan, as one of the LEAST intense matchups that we will see for the rest of this season.
Benfica have made their way to the last eight of the Champions League, so they’re obviously good. Indeed, they were in the same group as both Bayern Munich AND Barcelona, and here they are (and here Barcelona are NOT). Benfica defeated Barça in one group stage match, and drew in the other one. Last round, Benfica surprised Ajax by drawing 2-2 in Portugal and then winning the away leg 1-0. Finally, Benfica have scored in EVERY match, across all competitions, in the 2022 calendar year, and have scored only one fewer goal this season in the Portuguese league than the league leaders.
BUT…
Benfica are merely third in Portugal, essentially out of the title race. That title will almost certainly be won by Porto, which has demonstrated itself as a better team. Porto have beaten Benfica twice in the league this season. As you should recall, Porto were in LFC’s group in this season’s Champions League. Liverpool won those two games by a combined total of 7 goals to 1. And, based on fivethirtyeight.com’s algorithm, LFC have an 89% chance of advancing to the semifinals.
All in all, it would be a shock to everyone, including the Portuguese themselves, if Benfica were to beat Liverpool across two legs.
Meanwhile, it’s easy for the Reds to look one game down the road, to Sunday’s league-defining matchup against Manchester City.
Actually, despite the upcoming death match on Sunday, I’m not particularly worried that Liverpool will take Benfica too lightly. First, it’s not in the nature of either the manager or the players to do so. Second, I think the players, on the whole, care more about the Champions League as a competition than any other. They will come to play tomorrow, regardless of what’s coming next.
But, again, as a fan, this one feels relatively mellow by comparison to everything else Liverpool will do the rest of this season.
One fun fact about Benfica that I didn’t know until this morning — they played a fun role in Liverpool’s 2019 Champions League final victory over Tottenham. Here’s the story.
Apparently, all 28 senior players trained ahead of this match, traveled to Lisbon, and are fit to play. Wowsa.
In defense, I think Trent is likely to start this match to help get him ready for Sunday, but I would expect that he will play less than the full 90. Also, I think Konaté probably gives Matip a rest tomorrow. I think Robbo probably starts tomorrow, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he also gets subbed off at some point.
As ever, the midfield is the most difficult to predict. Fabinho is nailed on to start, given that he was on the bench on Saturday. If Naby Keïta had been fit for the last few weeks, I would fully expect him to start this one as well. Indeed, despite his recent injury, I expect Keïta to start anyway, although it would be no big surprise if he’s instead on the bench. No way Klopp will want Thiago to start all three matches this week. If Naby doesn’t start, I would guess that Milner would get that spot, although it could be Curtis Jones. The right-sided central midfielder is even more difficult to call. I also don’t think that Klopp will want Hendo to start all three games this week, and he’s definitely starting Sunday if he’s fit. However, there’s a pretty long gap between Tuesday and Sunday. So, maybe Hendo does start three games this week. But I doubt it. That leaves Jones, AOC, and Harvey Elliott as possibilities. I suppose Milner could start on the left and Naby could start on the right, but that’s pretty unlikely. I think Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is the most likely. But, as my discussion above shows, it could be almost anyone.
Up front, I suspect the starters will be Díaz, Mané, and Salah. Díaz and Mané are pretty easy calls, since both of them were on the bench Saturday. Luis also has lots of experience playing against Benfica while he was with Porto. If I were setting this lineup, I would start Jota on the right instead of Salah, and I would plan to bring Salah in after about 60 minutes. Mo needs a rest, and Mo also needs a goal. I think he could get both if he were to be used as a sub tomorrow. But, I would be very surprised if Klopp doesn’t start Mo. He subbed Mo off at about the 70 minute mark on Saturday, and I doubt he would have done that if he were planning to rest Mo today. And, as always, Mo himself will be desperate to start. Hopefully, he can overcome the overwhelming disappointment he has suffered over the last three months with Egypt, and he can break out of his scoring slump from open play. We know he’s got it in him.
So, my predicted lineup:
Benfica has a great young striker, Darwin Nuñez. He has 27 goals across all competitions this season, and I suspect that at some point he will get behind Liverpool’s high line and score. But, even if that happens, we should have too much for them.
Benfica 1 – LFC 3
Up the Mighty Reds!
