The most interesting PL fixture this week, even for me, is the Chelsea showdown with Man City at Stamford Bridge. Don’t get me wrong, I CARE a lot more about the LFC match. It’s just not the most intellectually stimulating fixture of the weekend.
Nonetheless, the Reds have good reason to take Brentford quite seriously.
Brentford is making its first appearance in the Premier League (i.e., the 1992-present incarnation of the top league in England), and last played in the “top flight” of English football in 1947. After 75 years of waiting, Brentford’s return has been auspicious so far.
Brentford have won two (Arsenal and Wolves), drawn two (Aston Villa and Crystal Palace), and lost one (Brighton). Even more impressively, Brentford have conceded only two goals in the PL, and their xGA is the second-best in the league — just behind Man City, and just ahead of LFC.
Brentford lines up in a 3-5-2 formation, and that alone scores cool points for creativity. Although playing with three center backs has become more common in the PL, I believe Brentford is currently one of only two teams playing with three CBs and two strikers.
Against LFC, I’m confident that Brentford’s two wingbacks, who are considered part of the midfield five in the 3-5-2, will mostly be pushed back into defense. Assuming I’m right, then they will be in more of a 5-3-2 shape tomorrow.
I watched Brentford’s match last weekend against Wolves. Brentford impressed on a number of fronts. They are a very well-coached team. For me (based on my extremely small observational sample), the most compelling aspect of Brentford’s play is their transition from defense to attack. Their counters were extremely quick and frighteningly well-organized. Both of their strikers, Mbeumo and Toney, are fast, with good vision and passing skills, and great movement off the ball. Everyone in the team knows exactly where they are supposed to be at any given moment. On the counter they find space quickly, and they use it well.
In defense, Brentford mix it up well. They mostly employ a mid-block press, and, as with their transition play, their pressure shows terrific organization. When pressing triggers occur, three or four players will swarm, while the remaining players immediately adjust their shape to minimize risk if the press is broken. When pushed deeper, they will play with nine to eleven players behind the ball, but still poised to strike quickly on the counter. The two strikers remain close to one another in both defense and attack, which helps Brentford counter quickly. Brentford’s defenders also display impressive individual positioning and tackling skills. They are difficult to break down.
All of the above suggests that Brentford could pose significant trouble for LFC. Occasional pressure mixed with well-organized deep defending, combined with quick transitions to a potent counter-attack, may be the classic LFC-busting paradigm. But, Brentford may have a few tendencies that play into LFC’s hands. First, at least against Wolves, Brentford often tried to pass the ball out from the back, rather than hoofing it long. As AC Milan learned early in the CL match at Anfield, this is a very difficult proposition against LFC. However, I suspect that Brentford’s excellent manager will account for this, and that Brentford will often look to bypass the pressure with well-constructed transitions that begin with a longer pass (and sometimes just hoofing and hoping).
The second Brentford tendency I observed that could help LFC is that its defenders often pushed closely up against the bodies of the players they were marking. With LFC’s ability to play coordinated, one- or two-touch passes all over the pitch, Liverpool could take advantage of this Brentford habit by quickly working the ball behind the defense. But again, I suspect that manager Thomas Frank will realize the danger and coach this tendency out of his players for this match.
As for us, we are playing very well. So far, we look like the team that relentlessly piled up points over an incredible 18-month period during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. But, the season will be long, and we have played only a few games. The hard part is maintaining the consistency over a period of months, as each new opponent brings a new set of challenges, and you play with a large target on your back every game.
Tomorrow, a few players will return from injury or illness to be available, and a couple will miss out. Firmino (hamstring), Trent (illness), and Neco Williams (foot) will all be back in the squad. Thiago (calf) and Keïta (ankle/foot) are both out. Thiago will not return until some time after the international break, which starts after the Manchester City match a week from Sunday. Naby may be available for one or both of the next two matches before the break.
This week LFC plays at Brentford on Saturday, at Porto in the CL on Tuesday, and then at Anfield against Man City on Sunday.
I would guess that Klopp has a preferred lineup in mind for the match against Man City on Sunday, and that his lineups for Brentford and Porto will be constructed with that Man City match very much in mind. Team rotations over the past two weeks have illustrated that Klopp believes in his squad and his sports science team, and he intends to rotate the lineup when we play mid-week.
I expect to see JoGo and/or Konaté against Porto, along with Tsimikas and/or Neco. I think Salah is likely to come off the bench either tomorrow or Tuesday, and I’ll guess that Minamino earns his first start this season in a “big” competition whenever that happens. If it does, I would expect Minamino to start on the left, and Mané to move back to his old position on the right wing. With Firmino back, he and Jota will likely rotate for each other this week. I’ll guess that Mané will start all three matches, because he came off the bench two weeks ago against AC Milan. But, if that happens, I’d also expect Klopp to bring on a sub for Mané both today and Tuesday.
The midfield is anyone’s guess, and it will depend in part on Keïta’s availability. Fabinho will need rest at some point, and I’ll guess he drops to the bench on Tuesday. Milner, Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Curtis Jones will all play parts. Minamino could also make an appearance in midfield, although I don’t really expect it.
With all of that in mind, tomorrow’s lineup becomes quite difficult to predict. But that won’t stop me. My guess:
Scoreline:
Brentford 0 – LFC 2
