The next two are huge. And I am massively worried about them.
The next two Premier League matches are tomorrow at Brighton and Wednesday at Arsenal. After that, next weekend is a quarterfinal FA Cup matchup against Championship side Nottingham Forest, followed by the last international break of the season.
If the Reds get the full six points from these next two games, they will be in good shape for the final push after the return from the international break. But, if we drop points in either match, the league will feel like it’s slipped away (even if it hasn’t quite done so).
I feel a bit of a sense of doom, in that I expect us to get only three or four points from these two. We could drop points in either match (or, perish the thought, in both). Arsenal are better than Brighton, and Arsenal are currently in excellent form. Nonetheless, I’m more worried about tomorrow.
Most of my worry stems from Liverpool’s three most recent outings against Brighton. Last season, Brighton beat Liverpool at Anfield 0-1, and held the Reds to a draw in Brighton. Earlier this season, Brighton came back from a two-goal deficit to earn a point at Anfield. Interestingly, Brighton does NOT park the bus against Liverpool. They come to play. They press, they pass out from the back, and they frequently dominate possession for five-to-15-minute spells sprinkled across the match. Brighton are very good at possession and defending. In the first two-thirds of the pitch, they are “boss,” as our Scouse friends might describe. But, Brighton are not very good at the most difficult part of the game — putting the ball in the back of the net. Thus, despite their very good defense and midfield, Brighton find themselves 13th in the table, with a -6 goal difference. Worryingly for them, they have also lost their last four Premier League contests, and they have failed to win in any of their last four Premier League home matches.
It’s intriguing how well Brighton has played against Liverpool, given that LFC generally dominates lesser-skilled opponents who play aggressively. Brighton’s manager is smart, understands LFC’s weaknesses, and looks to exploit them. Brighton are likely to get behind LFC’s defense on multiple occasions tomorrow.
Liverpool look to break into a new rhythm, after slogging through the three matches that have followed the League Cup victory. I’ll be interested to see how much Klopp rotates the team tomorrow. I suspect it won’t be very much. I don’t think Thiago or Curtis Jones will start this one, and at least one of the three forwards who started against Inter Milan on Tuesday will likely make way for Luis Díaz tomorrow. Otherwise, I think Klopp will go with the same group that played against Inter. I think Klopp and the sports science team will be hoping that the three days of rest between that game and this one, plus three more days of rest before the Arsenal match Wednesday, will be enough to allow most of the big boys to play all three of them. Personally, I still think Mo Salah needs a rest, but I still don’t think he’ll get one until the FA Cup game rolls around next weekend.
Matip and Firmino are available.
Klopp vaguely indicated at his press conference that there are currently some players and staff who have tested positive for COVID this week. And, Thiago, VVD, and Konaté were missing from training photos released by the club yesterday. So, those three may miss out for that reason.
With all of that, here’s my guess at a lineup:
The Reds should tonk this Brighton group. But we just haven’t been doing so over recent contests, and we’re not finishing well at the moment. I’m skeert.
Brighton 1 – LFC 1
