This one feels tricky.
The Reds are on the march and on a high. They have a fully fit squad for the first time in my memory. They are alive in all competitions. The Africans are back. New signing Luis Díaz appears to be a perfect fit with the team both tactically and off the pitch. Every match at the moment is suffused with importance, and the players will currently be determined to chase silverware in all four competitions.
And now we go to Turf Moor, to face the team at the bottom of the Premier League table. If any team and any ground can remove the luster from a twinkling game of football, this is the team and this is the place. Burnley will make this match ugly. They will make it physical. And they will do their best to make it tense.
Burnley may be the best team ever to sit in the last spot of the Premier League table as late as February. They have managed to win only once, and they have scored only 17 goals in the league. Nonetheless, they remain stalwart defenders, having given up fewer goals than either fourth-placed West Ham or fifth-placed Man United. While most teams park the bus against Liverpool, Burnley is one of the few teams in the league that park the bus nearly every single match. And boy, do they know how to do it. Their center back pairing of Tarkowski and Mee block shots and win headers time and time again. Drop deep, wait, and frustrate. Rinse and repeat. Few defenders — and few teams — are more comfortable facing an attacking onslaught.
The fivethirtyeight.com algorithm gives Liverpool a 73% chance of winning this one, with a 17% chance of a draw and an 11% chance of a Burnley win. My heart fears that Liverpool’s chances may be smaller than that, although my head wonders why Burnley have an 11% chance of winning, when they’ve won only once in 20 tries so far this season.
Burnley does have a new signing who could make a difference both tomorrow and in the remainder of Burnley’s season. He is a VERY tall center forward — Dutchman Wout Weghorst. He is a stick at 6’6” and only 185 pounds. He had scored six goals in the Bundesliga this season for Wolfsburg before signing with Burnley last month. He is good at “holdup play” with his back to the goal, which could allow Burnley to escape the LFC pressure, and might also allow quick wingers such as Maxwell Cornet and Dwight McNeil to get behind LFC’s high defensive line and receive through passes from Weghorst.
But enough about my anxieties and misgivings.
The advanced statistical metrics indicate that, this season, the Reds have been at or above their magnificent best under Jürgen Klopp. Per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, this LFC squad are averaging 2.48 xG, with a 1.0 xG allowed, giving the team a +1.48 xG difference per 90. In the title-winning 2019-20 season, LFC’s xG difference/90 at the end of the season was only +0.83. The year before, the Reds finished one point behind Man City with an xG difference/90 of +1.16.
This version of the Reds also pass my own subjective “eye test.” Especially with Van Dijk rounding into form and Fabinho healthy and anchoring the midfield, the team balance feels exactly right. Our high defensive line feels less and less vulnerable, while becoming more and more dominant.
In possession, the addition of Harvey Elliott on the right side adds a new creative dimension, creating the “three body” problem for defenses that you aptly identified. And, critically, the presence of Thiago allows us to create space where no spaces appear to be available.
At the moment, our options for changing a game from the bench are abundant and obscenely good. Let’s say that we start the match with a starting forward line of Mané, Firmino, and Salah. Now, we can bring off the bench both Luis Díaz AND Diogo Jota, both of whom can change a match in an instant. In midfield, Naby Keïta, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Harvey Elliott stand ready to bring energy, pressing, and creativity into any game that needs it.
Indeed, we have so many options at this point that, unless and until we get some injuries, a couple of regular “first-teamers” are not even going to make the 20-man squad on game days. My guess is that, like the starting lineup, the people who miss out on being in the squad will change nearly every match. But it will be quite revealing if one or more players end up being left out repeatedly. We might need to be on a “Joe Gomez is leaving this summer” watch.
Tomorrow, I’m hoping for some rotation ahead of our midweek showdown in Milan. Klopp says that Henderson is ready and will play. Knowing that, I’ll guess that Thiago sits this one out, and perhaps Fabinho as well. Tsimikas might get this one, although I think Klopp is more likely to rotate Matip for this one in favor of Konaté, who is better in the air. Burnley’s best chance of scoring against us is on a set play, and Klopp will want as many big bodies as possible available to prevent that.
In the forward line, I expect Mo Salah to start and Mané to be on the bench. But it wouldn’t be crazy for both of them to miss out on the starting lineup, given their recent exertions in Africa and the frenzied nature of the upcoming fixtures. I’ll guess that Jota also gets rotated this time.
Here’s my guess:
I really hope we can get a first-half goal. If we do, I think we will cruise from there. But if we get to the 70-minute mark without a lead, it’s going to be rough and very tense.
Burnley 0 – LFC 1
