For me, this game feels too important.
Title hopes for both of these teams, which shone brightly only two weeks ago, now appear to be sputtering in a pool of their own hot wax. For both, failure to win tomorrow would extinguish all reasonable aspirations to win this season’s Premier League.
Manchester City currently sit 12 points clear of Liverpool. At the moment, it feels like City are not only a nearly-unstoppable juggernaut, but also somehow manage to catch all of the breaks. This morning, for instance, City undeservedly squeaked a 1-2 victory against Arsenal. City won despite hitting only two shots on target — one of which was a penalty — and playing the last 30 minutes against 10 men. City won despite the fact that Arsenal had a tremendous shout for a penalty that was not given, while City won a penalty that was questionable. City won despite the fact that, with the score at 1-1, Arsenal missed an easy shot on an open goal. When the ball was next kicked following that miss, one of Arsenal’s center backs aggressively fouled a City player, stupidly earning a second yellow.
City unquestionably deserve to lead this league at this point of the season. They are probably again the best team in world football. But it certainly feels unfair when they get lucky on top of being so, so good.
But, perhaps we should not complain. Memories can fade fast of times when the balls and calls all seemed to break in our own favor. During the 2019-20 season, LFC were the best team in the land. They were probably also the luckiest. By many performance metrics, the current Liverpool team is the equal or better of that title-winning squad. One clear example: through 19 matches in that magical 2019-20 season, Liverpool had a goal difference of +33. This season, through the same 19 matches, LFC have a BETTER goal difference of +34. However, through 19 matches in 2019-20, LFC had earned an unimaginable 55 out of 57 available points. Meanwhile, after 19 matches this time around, Liverpool have only 41 points. Swings and roundabouts.
This does not appear to be our year for the Premier League. But the candle is still sputtering, and the flame could fully reignite. Despite the gap, fivethirtyeight.com still gives LFC a 16% chance of winning the league. But the chances of any reignition of hope very much depend on LFC getting a full three points tomorrow.
And, the same is true for Chelsea.
Both teams go into this match already missing important pieces due to injury and COVID, and both teams will lose additional key players for the rest of January during the African Cup of Nations. Tomorrow will be our last chance to watch Mo Salah, Sadio Mané, and Naby Keïta for a month. Similarly Chelsea will wave goodbye to their goalkeeper, Edouard Mendy, who has probably been the best in the league so far this season. They will also lose Hakim Ziyech to AFCON.
As I write this, I know that three new LFC players tested positive for COVID on Thursday and will be unavailable tomorrow. I don’t know who any of those players are with certainty, as Klopp wanted to be secretive on that front to avoid giving Chelsea in advantage in preparation. However, the absence of both Alisson and Firmino from training photos released by the club suggests that those are probably two of the victims. Of course, given how these things go, more players have probably tested positive since Thursday, and we wouldn’t yet know about it because the pre-match press conference was on Friday morning. We do know, however, that Klopp himself has now tested positive in the interim, and Pep Ljinders will be sideline director tomorrow.
Meanwhile, both Origi and Minamino are out with injuries, which is particularly untimely, as we are waving goodbye to Mané and Salah, and Firmino may have COVID. Robertson and Thiago will also miss tomorrow.
Tomorrow, Chelsea will be without both of their first-choice fullbacks/wingbacks — Ben Chilwell (out for the season), and Reece James (hamstring). They are also missing center back Andreas Christensen.
With so much at stake tomorrow for both teams, I expect high intensity. Lots of pressing. Lots of tackling. Lots of chippy behavior.
Chelsea defend very well in a low block. They will take opportunities to press, and they will also press if LFC get a lead, especially in the second half. But, much of the time, Chelsea will drop deep, park the bus, and rely on their counterattack. If Chelsea take the lead, they will gladly cede possession to Liverpool and let LFC bang their heads against a very strong wall.
LFC were unable to unlock Chelsea’s defense at Anfield, in spite of playing with a man advantage. LFC will probably have more space in which to attack tomorrow, but scoring will nonetheless be quite difficult.
Assuming Alisson is out, we will be most likely to miss him if and when Chelsea counters and gets behind our defense to earn a one-on-one with our keeper. Alisson has been very poor this season by his standards overall — especially over the last few weeks — but he has still managed to save a ridiculous number of one-on-one chances. I hope that Kelleher is available and hasn’t caught the plague by training alongside his mate. Kelleher is not a great shot-stopper, but he’s still much better than Adrian. And, Kelleher’s passing and sweeper-keeper skills rival those of Alisson. Adrian, on the other hand, is a huge drop off from Alisson in all departments.
With Firmino presumably out, the forward line picks itself. In midfield, hopefully Fabinho and Henderson remain fit. Although Oxlade-Chamberlain has played well over recent weeks, I’d still prefer that Keïta start this one.
My guess at a lineup:
Salah will be up for this one, playing against his former team a few days after missing a potentially-decisive penalty against Leicester. I suspect Mo will score.
My guess:
Chelsea 1 – LFC 1
And if that result comes to pass, Man City will find itself much closer to celebrating yet another Premier League title.
