Preview: Chelsea v. LFC (EFL Cup Final)

You can’t win ‘em all unless you win the first one.

Tomorrow promises to be a very good football match. It’s unfortunate that the football match may somewhat overshadowed by the political narrative that surrounds it.

Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich is a very close ally of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Abramovich was the first person to recommend to Boris Yeltsin that Putin should be his successor. When Putin appointed his first cabinet, he had Abramovich interview each of the candidates. Within the Kremlin, Abramovich is referred to as “Mr. A.” United States intelligence says that Abramovich is a financial middleman for Putin. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Abramovich#Vladimir_Putin

Given these ties between Chelsea’s ownership and Putin, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has raised suggestions that Abramovich should be stripped of his English-based assets, including his ownership of Chelsea Football Club. Labour MP Chris Bryant is leading the charge.

That’s all pretty fascinating. But I’m still far more invested in the football match.

This will probably be a very tight match. Chelsea’s defense remains one of the best in Europe. While Chelsea have struggled to score goals since the New Year, they remain very difficult to beat because they concede so few of them. Indeed, they have given up only two Premier League goals since drawing 2-2 with LFC on January 2. Fivethirtyeight.com’s algorithm shows that Liverpool and Chelsea are tied for having the second-best defense in Europe (behind Manchester City) As we saw in both Premier League games this season against Liverpool, Chelsea have been mostly successful at stifling Liverpool’s brilliant attack — even with 10 men, and even when losing by two goals early.

But, Chelsea have not yet faced the version of LFC that is likely to line up against them tomorrow. Most notably, Thiago has not played in either of the Chelsea matches this season. Neither has Luis Díaz. And, on both of the earlier occasions, Liverpool’s attack had nothing like the rhythm and momentum that the Reds will take into the match tomorrow. As The Guardian reported: “Chelsea have had 20 shots on target and scored six goals in the Premier League this calendar year; Liverpool have had 19 shots on target and scored nine goals this week.” The graphic below demonstrates the magnificence of LFC’s attacking this season:

Tomorrow, the Reds’ starting lineup almost picks itself, although I have a little bit of doubt about one of the center backs, and a tiny amount of doubt about one of the central midfielders.

I believe the lineup will be:

It would not surprise me, however, if Konaté starts ahead of Matip. I think it’s possible that Klopp has essentially decided that Konaté will play most or all of the cup matches (including Champions League), and Matip will get all of the league matches. I think there is a SLIGHT chance that someone else could start in midfield, but I think it’s highly likely to be these three.

I believe Thiago will make the difference in this match. He retains control of the match in a way that no one else in either squad can match. Kante is always a pain in LFC’s butt, and he will be again tomorrow. But Thiago will be able to handle him.

Díaz is another Agent of Chaos for our attack, in a different way than Diogo Jota. Díaz creates chaos with the ball at his feet, in ways that are reminiscent of another South American Luis who once graced Anfield. Jota creates chaos with his movement off the ball. I believe the two of them are likely to be an exceptionally complementary pair when on the pitch at the same time, which hasn’t yet happened much.

Jota may make the bench for this one. If he does, I’m confident he will see a bit of action second half. If that happens, I hope that Díaz will be there with him.

Finally, this is exactly the type of match where Divock Origi could pop up with a late goal. It would be as it always is — on the one hand it will come out of nowhere given Origi’s complete lack of prior meaningful contributions to the match; and on the other hand, it will be completely predictable, because that’s what Origi does. Graffiti seen recently in Brooklyn, NY: