It’s the Merseyside Derby, and narratives abound. In no particular order:
- The Everton manager is now Rafa Benitez, who is not only a former LFC manager, but he is a BELOVED former LFC manager.
- This is LFC’s first trip to Goodison since Jordan Pickford destroyed VVD’s knee, which led to destruction of Liverpool’s season. Not to mention Richarlison’s red card challenge on Thiago late in the same game, causing another knee injury which kept the midfielder out for more than two months.
- LFC have won 1 out of their last 9 trips to Goodison, and picked up only one point in last year’s two matches against the Bitters.
- Everton are in very bad form, and their fans are even more bitter and frustrated than usual.
- Liverpool are in exceptional form, but so are Liverpool’s two title rivals.
- As we swing into the full-on December crush, how will Klopp rotate the squad? And who will be available?
I’ll start with the bottom two narratives on that list.
Liverpool have been magnificent most of this season, but have not yet been able to demonstrate the dogged consistency that made them virtually invincible for 18 months across the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. Thus far this season, a record with only one loss across all competitions has been marred by four draws. Two of those draws we can forgive, as they came against our title rivals. But the Brighton and Brentford matches may haunt us.
Meanwhile, both Chelsea and Manchester City have had similar fortunes. They have both been stellar, but careful stargazers have been able to identify their flaws.
Now, as the Christmas Grinder begins to churn, all three of the title-contending teams will be worried that one or both of the other two could streak away from them.
Chelsea probably has more cause for worry than either of the other two. Over the course of the last four seasons, either Man City, Liverpool, or both have rolled off incredible winning streaks on multiple occasions. It’s been quite a while since Chelsea have done similarly. Moreover, for Chelsea’s first 10 or so games in the league, their xG differential paled relative to Liverpool’s and City’s. As we’ve discussed, Chelsea nonetheless secured more points than the other two because they significantly outperformed their xG at both ends of the pitch. Over the last four matches, Chelsea have, as the data nerds predicted, regressed significantly with respect to actual performance vs. xG. But, at the same time, Chelsea have improved their underlying xG numbers tremendously. Over the last four matches, Chelsea’s xG performance levels have been roughly the same as the numbers put up by LFC and City. And, for their efforts, Chelsea have dropped points in two of those four matches. 🤷🏼♂️.
City look poised for a possible City-like run of devastating proportions. They’re undefeated across all competitions in November, with wins over PSG, West Ham, and Man United in the mix. They’re scoring a lot, and conceding very few. They are superb.
But, West Ham aside, Liverpool look just as good, and probably better. This week, after dismantling Arsenal, we played at training-level intensity against Porto, and still managed a 2-0 win. Then we beat Southampton 4-0 on Saturday, while playing one half at full speed, and another half at training levels. That same Southampton team managed a 0-0 draw against City, in a match where City had only one shot on target, which came at the end of stoppage time (but, that match happened many weeks ago now, and City are playing a different game these days). Liverpool have scored at least two goals in 17 consecutive matches across all competitions, a feat that no top flight team has managed since the 1920s.
Bottom-line: the title race won’t be decided over the “festive fixture” period, but it’s possible that one or two of the three contending teams could find themselves in a big hole by the second week of January. LFC needs a run. I think we will get it.
As for rotation, I think we will be seeing quite a bit of it over the coming weeks. Tomorrow, for example, I fully expect Matip to return. I would not be surprised to see one or both of Mané and Salah on the bench in favor of Minamino and/or Origi. I would guess that Ox will start in place of Fabinho, Henderson, or Thiago. And Milner might find himself starting, too.
The full squad will see action in December. …On to Everton.
When Everton appointed Rafa Benitez this summer, I thought that he would possibly be the ideal Everton manager. He and his family love Liverpool. His family continued to live in their Liverpool home after Benitez got fired from LFC in 2010, even while Benitez himself took managerial positions in such far-flung locales as Milan (for Inter), Madrid (for Real), London (for Chelsea), and Newcastle. Benitez is widely considered to be a top tactician, at least for teams that prefer to defend deep and counterattack. Arguably, that counterattacking approach is ideal for a club like Everton, which currently lacks the personnel of the so-called “top clubs” in England. Plus, I think Benitez’s mindset and demeanor are well-suited for Everton. He is a classic underdog. While he was at LFC, he constantly felt slighted by Sir Alex Ferguson, and he believed at the time that the league and its referees kowtowed to Fergie. He fought back against that perceived abuse. That kind of attitude and fight is exactly the stuff that Evertonians need and adore.
But, as we fast forward, so far Rafa has had a less-than-terrific ride with the Blue half of town. At the moment, Everton sit in 14th place, just five points above the relegation zone. Everton started well this season, earning 10 points in their first five league matches. But now, they have not won in their last seven Premier League games. They have lost five of those most recent seven, including a 2-5 whomping at Goodison to lowly Watford. Given that many of the Bitters never wanted to have a Liverpool reject manager in the first place, Rafa’s position feels very tenuous right now. He’s definitely “under pressure.”
I don’t frequent Evertonian social media. Apparently, however, quite a few of the Evertonian faithful are proudly harping on the fact that their boys effectively crippled Liverpool last season by crippling one of their best players for the season (and causing severe harm to another). What’s more, those same social media Blues are apparently hoping and cheering for more of the same this year.
I doubt that any of Everton’s players are aware of this, and I doubt even more that they would be encouraged to follow such evil advice from supporters. Nonetheless, I get the sense that Goodison will be a cauldron of negative emotion. If the Reds start quickly, the Bitters will boo their own team. If the Blues hold LFC at bay, the Bitters will be howling for LFC blood. I’m not one who can rightfully judge anybody for a bit of schadenfreude. But it’s sad when schadenfreude is all that you’ve really got.
VVD might be out for a bit of revenge himself. But I think it will be the mildest form of retaliation. He’s a professional, and he knows that his season and career could be jeopardized by any retaliation that goes farther than a bit of jostling and maybe an elbow or two to the midriff area.
Lineup prediction is difficult. Here’s my guess:
Hopefully, we break the Goodison hex. Despite our poor recent history there, I still have a hard time believing we don’t take all three points tomorrow. I also fancy our “at least two goals” streak to continue.
Everton 0 – LFC 3
