Last week I noted that West Ham could move ahead of LFC in the table with a win. This week the same is true for Arsenal. This makes this game feel more important to me than it actually is. Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, LFC will still remain in title contention. But, lose tomorrow, and the Reds will face a tremendous uphill climb. At the moment, the season feels finely balanced.
Arsenal has come a long way from their shocking start to the season — they began with three losses, and they failed to score in any of them. And, to be fair, the current version of Arsenal’s team is truly a different group of players than those who played in those first three matches. Since then, Arteta has gone with young guys, and they have rewarded him. This includes a young goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, who has been brilliant as both a showstopper and a leader/organizer of the defense. They are also playing two young center backs, and two young fullbacks. In other words, their entire defense has changed. Meanwhile, their two best players have been their young wingers — Emile Smith-Rowe and Bakayo Saka. Smith-Rowe is a Jack Grealish type — very clever, very creative, and also a goal threat himself. Saka is more direct, and reminds me of Sadio Mané. Both are big threats.
During the unbeaten renaissance since the first three matches, manager Mikel Arteta has gone with a 4-4-2 formation. Smith-Rowe and Saka have been flanking the two old men who continue to play as the strike partnership: Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Neither of those two has the pace that they once had. But they both still know how to finish, and they are both very smart footballers.
Arsenal’s recent victories include wins over Leicester City and Spurs (before Antonio Conte took over). Also, this season Arsenal poached a set piece coach from Man City, and their set piece output has skyrocketed. This is a worry for the Reds, who gave up two goals from just three corners against West Ham (and the Hammers hit the cross-bar on the other corner).
Despite Arsenal’s great form, and LFC’s recent poor performances and slate of injuries, I still think this match sets up well for Liverpool. Arsenal are playing fairly aggressive football at the moment, and I expect them to do that tomorrow. I also fully expect them to continue with the 4-4-2 formation. Critically, this formation leaves them with only two central midfielders. Liverpool will be licking their lips at the possibilities of overwhelming Arsenal’s outnumbered midfield. I think we will dial up the press to top intensity.
However, while LFC have used pressing very well this season to create chances, LFC have also had more failed presses this season, which have opened them up to counterattacks far more often than in their glorious stretches in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. Much of this can be traced to the absence of Gini Wijnaldum, who was a transition defense specialist. When we had the ball, Gini’s primary job was to keep the ball and keep the ball moving. But, when we lost the ball, Wijnaldum was critical to stopping the counter. He cut off passing lanes in transition and covered for his teammates that were caught in more advanced positions on both the flanks and in the middle. Naby Keïta has done a pretty decent job of doing that job while he’s been on the pitch, but he’s not available tomorrow.
Tomorrow, we will again be short of central midfielders. Jordan Henderson is questionable, though I expect him to play. Meanwhile, Keïta, Milner, Jones, and Harvey Elliott remain unavailable. Other than Elliott, those midfielders will all soon be available again, but they won’t be playing tomorrow. This leaves us with only Henderson (maybe), Oxlade-Chamberlain, Fabinho, and Thiago as available senior midfielders.
Having disappointed the fans at Anfield with three draws this season, and having dropped points in both of their last two Premier League matches, I believe LFC will be focused and ready tomorrow. I look for us to play with tremendous intensity.
Firmino remains out for at least another month, but Mané, Jota, and Salah will be ready. In defense, Andy Robertson is questionable after experiencing hamstring tightness on international duty, and I expect Tsimikas to start.
Arsenal’s youthful squad will play with courage, and they are unlikely to start the game being intimidated by either Liverpool or Anfield. But, who knows how they will react if they face early adversity?
They will open us up on the counter a few times. They will probably finish at least one of those chances. But I think we will still overwhelm them.
Predicted lineup:
LFC 3 – Arsenal 1
Elsewhere, there are four new managers in the Premier League: Antonio Conte at Spurs, Eddie Howe at Newcastle, Dean Smith (just sacked by Aston Villa) at Norwich City, and Steven Gerrard at Aston Villa. I will write about all of them bar Dean Smith over the next several weeks, because LFC will be facing each of the other three clubs soon. They are all intriguing appointments.
Up the Reds!
