The Return of a Legend.
Steven Gerrard is the best Scouse player ever to play for our Scouse club. He joined the Liverpool academy at age 9, and played at Liverpool nearly all of his career (he closed it out with two quiet seasons in MLS for the LA Galaxy). With LFC he won numerous accolades and trophies, including multiple FA Cups, the League Cup, and a glorious Champions League victory in Istanbul. He came close to other Champions League titles and finished a close second in two Premier League title races, but never won that coveted trophy. Many believe Stevie is LFC’s best-ever player, period. Among many supporters, he his certainly the most beloved.
Gerrard, of course, continues to make his home in Liverpool, despite managing a club in Birmingham (and, before that, in Glasgow).
There have been multiple public reports that Steven Gerrard’s biggest goal in his post-playing career is to manage Liverpool Football Club (though he has never stated that publicly). Immediately after his playing career ended, he worked to earn his management certifications, and he first managerial job was taking charge of LFC’s U-18 kids.
Nonetheless, when Steven Gerrard was asked last Saturday what level of sentiment he will bring to his return to Anfield tomorrow, his reply was delivered with typical severity: “None. None at all. I just want to go there and try and win.” Repressed much, Steven?
Certainly, both teams will be fighting hard for three points tomorrow, and most of their focus will be on that fight. But it’s also true that emotions will run high among the supporters, and no doubt will also run high for at least one of the managers — though I don’t expect him to show it outwardly. Stevie might crack at some point, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Tactically, this match promises the potential to be a barn-burner. About 14 months ago, Aston Villa demolished LFC by the embarrassing scoreline of 7-2. Although Villa benefited from a mistake from backup keeper Adrian, together with three deflected shots that found the net, there is no doubt that Aston Villa were vastly superior to LFC on that day. And, at the time, none of LFC’s cataclysmic injuries to center backs had yet occurred. Villa exploited LFC’s high defensive line time and again, despite the fact that VVD and Joe Gomez were anchoring it.
While that Villa team featured Jack Grealish, who now works for Pep Guardiola, most of the team that annihilated Liverpool a year ago will show up at Anfield tomorrow. This includes Ollie Watkins, who scored a first-half hat trick in that 7-2 win.
Both the new Villa and Gerrard’s Rangers team in Scotland played with a 4-3-3 system (although Klopp said today that you could also call it a “Christmas tree” system – 4-3-2-1). More significantly, Gerrard’s teams typically press fairly high — especially against the opposition’s fullbacks and on the flanks. Gerrard played a variety of styles as a player, while being managed by some very different characters who had widely divergent tactical approaches at Liverpool. Then, Gerrard came through as a young manager while under the direction of a club managed by Jürgen Klopp. By most accounts, Gerrard has borrowed stylistic elements from several of his former bosses, including Rafa Benitez and Brendan Rodgers. But, the strongest ancestral inspiration for Gerrard’s managerial tactics thus far appears to come from none other than Klopp himself.
Aston Villa now play with intensity and aggression.
So far, they have been very successful in the extremely short time that Gerrard has been in charge. They lost 2-1 against Man City, but have earned victories against Brighton, Crystal Palace, and Leicester City. I watched them beat Leicester City, and I was impressed. They were not only intense, but they passed well, and they looked very strong in several set piece situations. I strongly expect Gerrard to have a trick or two up his sleeve for tomorrow, in an effort to exploit LFC’s high defensive line in a similar way to how Dean Smith did it against Liverpool last season.
Although Gerrard’s teams play with intensity and they press high, they have also been very well-organized defensively. Neither his Rangers team nor Villa thus far have conceded many goals. Gerrard and his players will be acutely aware of the menacing threat posed by LFC, and they will have a strong plan to try and minimize it.
On the LFC side of things…
Liverpool have literally performed so well this season so far that it worries me. The chart below is a bit confusing (at least it was to me), but hang with me…
The Y axis is LFC’s 10-game rolling average xG generated directly from pressing. The x axis is what confused me. Each game listed actually represents the beginning/end of a 5-game period. That’s why the data is not very smooth (at least compared to what it would look like if we were seeing a 10-game average and every match was a point on the graph). The chart covers the whole of the Klopp Era. The huge spike at the end of the graph represents our season thus far. As you can see, our pressing xG is through the roof, compared with any other time in the Klopp Era.
Other stats, most notably xG differential, paint a similar picture. This team is one of Klopp’s best, and it has probably been the best team in Europe this season (which means, the best in the world). Statistically, only Bayern, Man City, and Ajax really compare. Chelsea is sorta close, but not in the same ballpark with the others. I don’t have the pressing data for those other clubs, but I would be very surprised if their xG from pressing comes anywhere close to Liverpool’s.
Here’s why that has me worried: we’re playing with so much intensity that it feels inevitable that players will suffer injuries. Now, to some extent, this has already occurred. Firmino, Milner, Gomez, and Keïta have all suffered muscular injuries. And, wouldn’t you know, all of those guys are now back in training and are likely to be part of the squad tomorrow. So, maybe … silly me?
But, realistically, we will continue to carry several injuries at any given time. We can only hope that, unlike last season’s debacle, those injuries don’t waylay anyone for the remainder of the season. We’ve had one horrible injury already this season. That’s enough. We also need to hope that the injuries remain li
Currently, Jota and Divock have apparently been nursing minor “knocks” picked up against Wolves.
Meanwhile, the show we’re watching is unbelievable. LFC have pushed it to another level. City and Chelsea can cope with us, but everyone else needs to get lucky.
Tomorrow, I expect us to return to the first-choice team that’s started the last two PL matches, if Jota is available:
Gerrard’s crew will fight hard. They will create problems for us. They will probably score. But I just don’t see them beating this version of the Mighty Reds. We are rolling.
LFC 4 – Villa 1
Roll on, Relentless Reds.
