Early season battles against top rivals always feel bigger than they are. The reality is that only three points are at stake, as in every league match. The reality is that win, lose, or draw, the title race will still very much be on. The reality is that it’s too early in the season to know whether these particular points will be meaningful come May 2022, and the likelihood is — they won’t be.
But the way we feel as fans is often divorced from reality. And this kind of match-up cracks fans’ reality barrier with ferocity.
If the Reds lose this one, they could easily fall from first place into a four-way tie for fourth by the end of the weekend, and we will all be left to stew on that drop over a grotesquely-long two-week international break.
As fans, it’s easy for us to think back to the 12-millimeter difference between winning and losing the league in the 2018-19 season. It makes us feel like every kick of the ball is critical against these Sky Blues. It’s both ridiculous and glorious.
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, LFC has gathered 279 points in the Premier League, and Man City has 278 points.
Narratives always abound around this matchup:
- The cities of Manchester vs. Liverpool
- Pep vs. Jürgen.
- Arab Petrostate vs. American speculators
- Big-spending cheaters vs. Spend-what-we-make rules-followers
- a “well-orchestrated symphony” vs. “heavy metal football”
- Kevin de Bruyne vs. Mo Salah
- Ederson vs. Alisson
- VVD vs. reigning PL Player of the Year Rúben Dias
- Raheem Sterling vs. scorned LFC fans
- Fewest goals conceded vs. most goals scored
All of these narratives carry some emotional resonance, and some of them are intellectually interesting as well.
However, the tactical narrative strikes me more forcefully than any of them.
These two teams know each other’s tendencies, strengths and weaknesses so very well. These two managers understand quite well which tactical tweaks stand the best chance of dulling their opponents’ sharp edges.
By reputation, Guardiola is the tactical mastermind, and Klopp the master motivator. But, in head-to-head matchups, I believe Klopp holds a critical tactical advantage over his more tactically-acclaimed counterpart. This advantage becomes apparent when viewing the teams’ respective strengths and weaknesses from a “fundamental theorem of poker” standpoint — that is, you should always act in the way that your opponent does NOT want you to act.
Guardiola’s teams are always capable of magnificence, majesty, and magic regardless of the opponent and its tactics. But there is a best way to increase your chances when facing Man City. The best way to beat them is to press them, with intensity and efficiency. City’s most recent instance of dropped points this season provides a fine example.
Southampton are a lower-table side, and City’s players are better at every position on the pitch. Traditional wisdom would advise Southampton to park the bus against their more-skilled opponents, which is exactly what most teams do against City. But Southampton ignored conventional wisdom, and reaped rewards for it. The Saints used an intense high press against City throughout the match, and in response City managed only a single shot on target for the whole match. City thrive on the time and space that most teams give them. They feed on patience, passing, and possession. And, despite having terrific speed and quality, City are not nearly as “clinical” or comfortable when counter-attacking. Thus, when faced with pressure, City, though still very capable, are less at ease. When pressed City lose fluency, rhythm, and often efficacy.
Enter the Reds (and every other Jürgen Klopp team). Our identity is intensity. Year after year, Klopp’s teams press more intensely and more efficiently than just about any other team in the world. Every opponent can expect “90 minutes of hell” in the form of relentless pressure whenever LFC lose possession.
In other words, from a tactical standpoint, LFC are City’s worst nightmare.
But the same is definitely not true in reverse. City also play with an intense, high-pressing approach on defense. And they are very, very good at it. But this is exactly the type of defense that Klopp’s teams most relish playing against. The Reds salivate when opponents leave space behind their defense, and City’s high defensive line does just that. To be sure, City’s personnel permit them to play a high line with great confidence. Their back four — Walker, Dias, LaPorte, and (probably) Cancelo — are all very swift. Moreover, behind them is Ederson, who can make a strong claim to being the best “sweeper-keeper” in the world (although Ederson’s LFC counterpart is one of his strongest rivals for that claim). City unquestionably has one of the strongest defenses in the world, and they stifle opponents from front to back, pressuring, cutting off passing lanes, and rarely permitting forays behind their line. City give up very few shots of any type, much less clear chances. Nonetheless, from a tactical standpoint there’s little doubt that this is exactly the type of defense LFC would prefer to face.
Conversely, City’s preferred offensive approach does not exploit LFC’s greatest defensive vulnerability. Liverpool’s high defensive line is neither as fast nor as impenetrable as City’s line. The best way to go at Liverpool is to take the direct route, sending long passes that bypass the press and the midfield, while trying to get runners behind the Reds’ defense. If I were Pep Guardiola facing LFC, I would start Sterling on the left. I would instruct Sterling to stay high when LFC have the ball, waiting on the chance for City to regain possession, so that Sterling can get behind Milner, grab a long pass from a teammate, and run past Matip at a gallop. I would ask KdB to drop deep in defense, and have him look immediately and constantly for the long, penetrative pass whenever City regain possession. I would start the fleet-footed combination of Mahrez and Jesus across the forward line with Sterling. And I would tell not only KdB, but also all of my defenders, including Ederson, to look first for the long ball in behind whenever City get the ball.
I think this direct, quick-strike, over-the-top approach would maximize City’s opportunities against LFC. Nonetheless, I’m almost certain that Pep will not use it — at least not primarily. First, I expect Pep will start Grealish and Foden as his wide forwards, rather than Sterling and Mahrez. Both Grealish and Foden offer harrowing triple-threats as dribblers, playmakers, and scorers. And, Grealish is likely to create significant problems for Milner by drawing fouls and potential yellow cards with his exceptionally-tricky footwork. But, neither Grealish nor Foden offer the blazing speed that could best exploit LFC’s vulnerability with runs in behind.
City will make SOME long passes tomorrow, and I’d wager that one or two of those few long passes will create substantial trouble for LFC. But City’s primary offensive approach is likely to be the same as it always is — maximize possession, and use short, quick passes, accompanied by constant movement in precise combinations. City’s quality will also likely cause LFC some significant problems using this patient approach, but that approach will need to overcome LFC’s defensive strength, rather than exploiting LFC’s weakness.
I think Pep will be far more interested in stifling LFC tomorrow, as opposed to scoring goals. I think Pep would be happy with a 0-0 draw at Anfield. I expect Pep to instruct his players to build their attack from the back by passing up the flanks, rather than going through the middle — a far more dangerous place to lose the ball. City’s center backs will split very wide on goal kicks or whenever Ederson has the ball. Ederson will pass sideways, or even backward to his wide CBs, and they will then look to push the ball patiently forward while avoiding the center third of the pitch. That is, I believe City will avoid the central section if you divide the pitch into three segments using vertical lines. They will use a combination of short passes up the flank, while sprinkling in a few long diagonal passes. And these long diagonals are one spot where Pep’s tactics COULD exploit an LFC vulnerability. But, more often, City’s passing will be ponderous and boring. Using this conservative approach, City will rarely have the ball in dangerous spots.
I expect LFC to start the same group who started against Porto, except that Firmino may start in place of Jota. Curtis Jones was my Man of the Match in mid-week, and he also scored a magnificent goal last weekend against Brentford. He’s earned another start. Indeed, I suspect that Naby Keïta has again found his way into the manager’s doghouse (more on that theory next week, along with my shifting feelings on the subject of Mr. Keïta). If I’m right about Naby, then CuJo is even more cemented in LFC’s lineup than the youngster’s recent performances would already indicate.
James Milner, despite his weaknesses, provides the best option at right back, and he even appears to be enjoying himself in that role. Klopp took Milner off relatively early in the second half against Porto, suggesting that Klopp wants Milner to be ready to start against City.
Firmino should be preferred to Jota, in my view, because he is a better presser, and also effectively gives us an extra midfielder. Midfield is the area where Pep’s teams typically dominate with overloads (although I expect that City’s typical overloaded central midfield approach will be less on display tomorrow, as Pep will want to reduce risk by keeping the ball more on the flanks). As you know, I also like Jota’s ability to change the match from the bench. However, Firmino has looked good as a substitute in both of the last two matches.
I expect a low-scoring match. Both sides are capable of moments of magic from individual play, and both sides can, at any moment, create passing combinations that open up the opposition defense to score a magnificent “team goal.” But both sides are very strong defensively, and both will be VERY cognizant of how the opposition can hurt them.
I’ll predict that we kiss our sister.
LFC 1 – City 1
