Fuck the fucking fuckers.
For the more than two decades, Liverpool fans tried to comfort themselves with fading memories of past glory, while United fans cavorted in the sun. During most of those two decades, when this fixture approached, LFC supporters could only hang onto the schadenfreudic hope that our club could spoil United’s current run toward another title. And, oh yeah, LFC also needed to get into that coveted Top Four spot.
The shoe’s on the other foot now, fuckers.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that, often during that more than 20-year period of United’s dominance, at least for that one match, LFC would fulfill the spoiler’s role. Or would put up a good fight in the process. As the cliché goes, “you can throw out the form book for this one.”
Here’s the thing, though — the cliché is bullshit. To be sure, Manchester United are well capable of beating or drawing with Liverpool at Anfield tomorrow. That could happen. Few people would even consider it a crazy result. Indeed, Manchester United are in fifth place right now, which means they are better than both teams to have beaten LFC in the Premier League this season, and better than several teams that have held LFC to draws.
BUT…
The cliché is bullshit because the “form book” — the current status of these two teams — is HIGHLY relevant to assessing the probable outcome. Anything can happen, and no result would be a shock. Nonetheless, the likelihood that Manchester United will get something tomorrow is still small, given where these two clubs currently are.
Over United’s last 10 Premier League matches, they have won four times, drawn four times, and lost twice. Over Liverpool’s last 10 Premier League matches, we have won nine times, drawn once, and lost none. Common opponents in the league over that stretch include Watford (United drew with them 0-0, we beat them 2-0); Brighton (both United and LFC beat them 2-0); Burnley (United drew 1-1; we won 0-1); Leeds (United won 2-4; we won 6-0); and Manchester City (United lost 4-1; we drew 2-2). In the table, although United sit only three places below us, we have 19 more points, and we have played one less match. Our goal difference is +57; theirs is +8.
United have talent. They currently have a good manager (interim manager Ralf Rangnick), and they have an excellent young manager (Erik ten Hag) waiting in the wings for next season. United still have as good a shot as any of the contenders for slipping into the final Champions League place at the end of the season. But, despite all of that, this current version of United is a mess.
United’s captain, Harry Maguire, has been awful throughout the season.
United’s highest-paid player, Cristiano Ronaldo, has scored an impressive 21 goals across all competitions, but he has without question made United a worse team overall because of his inability to press and participate meaningfully in buildup play. Ronaldo’s style and approach demands that you engineer your entire team around him. Not so long ago, he was so transcendentally good that this approach made perfect sense. Now, it just doesn’t.
United have several young forwards with tremendous talent who have languished for a laundry list of reasons. Mason Greenwood caused his own problems by sexually assaulting his girlfriend. Marcus Rashford (who is a great human being and activist, by the way), is still only 24 years old. But, while at United, Rashford has been shifted in and out of lineups and into differing roles under five different managers. Jadon Sancho was one of the two or three most-coveted young players in world football while carving up defenses in the Bundesliga for Dortmund. Since arriving at United this season, he often languished on the bench under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. And, when OGS played Sancho, Sancho never knew which position he would play across the front line. Over the last few months, Rangnick has played him more consistently, and has used him almost exclusively on the left wing. So, at least Sancho’s life is on the up swing. But it hasn’t been easy for him.
Meanwhile, also on the United bench is Edinson Cavani, a man who has scored 360 goals in his career — 130 more than Mo Salah.
For quite a while Manchester United’s darling was Bruno Fernandes, a man with amazing skills on the ball. But his style and lack of speed do not fit well with Rangnick’s preferred pressure-based system.
In short, United has had a bunch of managers in a short time frame. They have all employed different tactical approaches and have made costly transfer purchases based on their own needs, for their own systems. Now, United has a bloated wage bill filled with a hodge-podge of highly-talented players who do not fit together as a team, and are mostly very unhappy.
And, then there’s Liverpool.
This may be the best Liverpool football team in history. Many performance-based metrics would suggest that it’s certainly in the running. And, they are still in the running for the immortal status that winning a quadruple would bring them.
Predicting our lineup for tomorrow is tough. I think Firmino and Jota will start, alongside either Mané or Salah. I’ll guess it’s Mo. In midfield, I think Klopp will be trying to manage his rotations through the rest of the season so that at least two from the foursome of Fabinho, Henderson, Thiago, and Keïta are always in the starting lineup. For tomorrow, I think Keïta and Thiago have the most recent miles and highest injury tendencies (although all four of them are somewhat injury-prone), which would mean that Fabs and Hendo are likely starters. The third midfielder could be almost anyone, but I think Curtis is the likeliest.
The defense is the easy part. Matip will come back for this one.
So, my predicted lineup:
The Reds are happy, hungry, and focused.
United is unhappy and confused.
On the pitch tomorrow, I expect United to press. But they’re not very good at it. The space they will leave will allow us to create lots of good chances. We will press them and create havoc in their back line while they try to play out from defense. On the occasions they manage to break past our high line, they will face a cleanup crew consisting of VVD, Matip, and Alisson, along with eight other friends who will streak to their aid.
Meanwhile, the Anfield faithful will be at or near their best and loudest for this one.
United might win. United might draw. But it sure ain’t too damned likely.
LFC 4 – Man United 1
FFF.
