The next in line of Liverpool Football Club’s longest-ever string of “biggest games of the season.” Or maybe not. In 2018-19, the Reds walked a similar tightrope for the last several months of the season, albeit in fewer competitions. But this time, because there are more competitions, there have been more opportunities to slip. More opportunities to fail. So far, there has been no failure, unless you want to describe a 2-2 draw at the home of the next-best team in the world as a failure. I sure don’t.
For many reasons, tomorrow’s game against Spurs should be considered the toughest remaining match in LFC’s league season:
- Spurs are, by far, the highest-placed team in the league table that remains on LFC’s schedule. They currently sit in fifth-place, 12 points clear of 8th-placed Wolverhampton, who the Reds play on the final day of the season.
- Tottenham’s tactical approach is perfectly set up to exploit LFC’s weaknesses. Spurs are, arguably, the best counter-attacking team in the league. Probably their strongest challenger for that title is Liverpool. And, defensively, the Spurs under Antonio Conte have become a deep-lying, relatively passive defensive team. This is NOT Mauricio Pocchetino’s intense pressing team any longer. Advanced stats reveal that Spurs currently rank about 19th in terms of pressing in the Premier League. They now sit back, absorb pressure, and they break with directness and superb quality in their forward line. This is probably the best recipe for beating Liverpool.
- Most observers believe that Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola are currently the two best managers in world football. Antonio Conte may be the third best. It’s noteworthy that two other names in the mix for that distinction would be Thomas Tuchel and Carlo Ancelotti, the two managers LFC will face in upcoming cup finals.
- That Spurs forward line I mentioned earlier is even better than it used to be. Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son are still all that. Indeed, Son is the only Premier League player who still has a shot at passing Mo Salah for this year’s Golden Boot. Now, in addition to Son and Kane, Spurs have Swede Dejan Kulusevski, formerly of Juventus, who has racked up three goals and eight assists in a mere 14 appearances in the Premier League this season, playing on the right wing. And Spurs still have Lucas Moura and Steven Bergwijn to step in from the bench, and both can be potent on their day.
- In the first match between these two teams, not only did Spurs come away with a point, but they actually are one of the few teams all season to beat Liverpool on xG in a match. Sort of. That was a weird game, in many ways. Fivethirtyeight.com’s shot-based xG model had Spurs with 3.4, LFC with 1.5. Usually, the results from that shot-based model comport fairly closely with the non-shot-based xG model that 538 uses. But, in that match, Spurs non-shot-based xG was only 1.5, and LFC’s was 2.2. Liverpool also played that match with a considerably weakened lineup, which included Tyler Morton as the defensive midfielder, sitting behind Naby Keïta and James Milner. Finally, that match saw not one but two critical first-half referee decisions that were both clearly wrong and both went in Spurs favor. First, Harry Kane should have been sent off for a terrible tackle. Shortly after that, Diogo Jota was CLEARLY fouled in the box for what should have been an easy penalty call. Neither the ref nor the VAR got either one of those calls right. But, despite all of the weirdness, this match demonstrated how Antonio Conte’s Spurs team are capable of cutting apart LFC’s high defensive line.
- Spurs are currently in an extremely tight race to earn a Top Four spot, with their North London rivals, Arsenal.
I believe all of the above points are strong and convincing. My rational brain believes this match will be extremely tough. Meanwhile, my gut tells me to be more scared about upcoming away matches against Aston Villa and Southampton.
The Anfield faithful will be bringing it tomorrow night. They will be well-lubricated (moreso than usual because it’s a night game). They will be amped because the Reds have qualified for the Champions League final. They will be hopeful that Man City might stumble after going through the physical and spiritual exhaustion of what happened in Madrid on Wednesday. And, with every game that goes by with the Reds still competing for a quadruple, that crowd will be gaining belief that this team will actually pull it off. They are witnessing greatness that could transcend to the level of immortality, and they damned well know it.
After the scare on Tuesday night at Villarreal, the Reds will be ready. With three days rest, plus the rotation that occurred at Newcastle last Saturday, the squad is relatively well-rested. Bobby Firmino is now back in team training, and no one else is injured.
The Reds are ready for the challenge that Spurs will bring.
Predicted lineup:
I think from here on out, the Díaz-Mané-Salah forward line will see by far the most minutes of any other forward combination. So far, no team has been able to deal with them. Nobody. I love that Bobby Firmino will again be available soon, especially because he gives us a far better 4-2-4 “break glass in case of emergency” option. But the DMS combo is the hyper-explosive starting group, and we should be seeing as much of it as reasonably possible.
Tsimikas is again a possibility, but I’m now guessing that he plays against Villa on Tuesday. I think Bobby and Jota may start that one also.
Tomorrow, both the team and the crowd will be at full strength.
Tactically, I expect us to be VERY cautious about Spurs’ counter, at least when judged against how we usually play. I expect that only one of our full backs is likely to join the attack in the final third most of the time, while the other sits deep, along with the CBs. I expect that when Hendo pushes forward, Thiago will drop back to cover alongside Fabinho, giving us more of a double pivot in front of the CBs. I expect both Fabinho and Thiago to push forward less often than they typically would. And, the CBs will be harassing and physically beating on Kane and Son as much as possible.
I’m going with my gut.
LFC 2 – Spurs 0
Up the Mighty Fucking Reds.
