On April 6, 2021, Real Madrid defeated Liverpool 3-1 in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal in Madrid. This loss came as no surprise to LFC supporters. LFC played without any fit senior center backs, as they did throughout the second half of the 2020-21 season. The match, like almost all others that season, was behind closed doors. Both Jürgen Klopp and Alisson Becker had lost parents during the lockdown, and both had been unable to travel for the funerals. Just a month before the loss to Real Madrid, the Reds had finally ended an unbearable six-match losing streak at Anfield, during which they had managed to score a meager two goals total. In press conferences and on the sidelines, Klopp appeared to be drained of any positive energy. He uncharacteristically bristled with defensiveness during interviews. The Reds were joyless.
That was then, and this is now. Since that game on April 6, Liverpool have played 51 matches across all competitions. They have lost only two of those 51. One of those two losses came against tomorrow’s opponent, West Ham.
Liverpool are unlikely to take any opponent lightly from now until the end of this amazing season. But they will certainly not take THIS opponent lightly, given the most recent result against them.
West Ham have enjoyed a terrific season thus far. They currently sit in fifth place, just two points behind Manchester United for a Champions League spot (although sixth- and seventh-placed Arsenal and Tottenham both have games in hand on the two clubs above them). In addition to beating Liverpool 3-2, West Ham have also notched victories against Chelsea (Premier League), Spurs (Premier League), Manchester United (League Cup), and Manchester City (League Cup). West Ham has proven that it is for real.
But, make no mistake. Although West Ham are for real, they are still a long way from being a team that should compete seriously with Liverpool. In the league, the Hammers have scored 46 and allowed 34. By contrast, Liverpool have played one less game, but have scored 70 and allowed 20. Fivethirtyeight.com’s algorithm gives LFC a 76% likelihood of winning the match, while giving West Ham only a nine percent chance of getting all three points.
West Ham manager David Moyes has led teams out at Anfield on 17 prior occasions. He has won none of them. Moyes’s teams have managed a draw seven of those 17 times.
Liverpool are better than West Ham at every position. Indeed, only a few of West Ham players would likely be good enough to even make Liverpool’s squad.
But, this is soccer. We know the best team often does not win. And, the algorithm acknowledges this — it says we’ve got a 24% chance of dropping points tomorrow.
The algorithm, however, does not take into full account what we know to be true. The Reds are on the march. They are full of purpose and focus on a level that they did not have earlier this season, despite playing very well most of the time. From a mentality standpoint, all signs indicate that the Reds are back at the unbelievable levels they achieved during their historic year-and-a-half of near-perfection in 2018-19-20. The Reds are hunting trophies, and they know that the Premier League is both the most coveted (at least by LFC followers) and difficult to win this season. The Reds will give this match everything they have. And everything they have should be more than enough to overwhelm West Ham United.
Nonetheless, I would feel much better about this match if I knew that Thiago was available. I’ll go out on a limb now about this season: I do not think we will lose another match in any competition when Van Dijk, Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, Thiago, and Salah all start. When all five of them are on the pitch together, we are better than any team in the world.
Unfortunately, tomorrow we will not have the magical space creator and controller of tempo. Indeed, tomorrow could see us start a makeshift midfield. In addition to Thiago’s injury, both Curtis Jones and Naby Keïta are questionable with minor injuries. Meanwhile, James Milner played 90 minutes at right back on Sunday, and Jordan Henderson started both of the prior two matches over the last six days. We know that Fabinho will start tomorrow. I think it’s also highly likely that Harvey Elliott will start, since he came off the bench in the last two. The big question is who will start as the left-sided central midfielder. Thiago, Keïta, Jones, and Milner are the people who play that position. If none of them can start, then someone will be playing there out of position. Perhaps it will be Henderson. Maybe it’s AOC or Minamino. Maybe it’s Tyler Morton. Or maybe Klopp will surprise us by playing a 4-2-3-1, and using Díaz, Minamino, or Mané as a central attacking midfielder.
In defense, we will be without Joël Matip, who is ill (non-COVID). But, Konaté and Van Dijk are an excellent pairing. Trent and Robbo will hold down their usual positions.
I expect Klopp to return to the attacking trio of Díaz, Mané, and Salah, which have started two of the last three together. Jota will be available from the bench.
The season is long, and the Reds will need to be marching for what will seem an eternity. The march is currently a bit of a slog. I don’t expect this one to be pretty, but I expect us to get it done.
LFC 2 – West Ham 0
Up the trophy-winning Reds!
