“What do we say to the God of Death? … Not today.”
Last week, Manchester City pushed Liverpool to the brink of [highly-probable] elimination in the Premier League. The Reds pushed back. They then followed that up with a highly-imperfect, yet highly-entertaining cavort at Anfield in a true elimination bout — a second-leg Champions League quarterfinal. Our Reds are still on the march, and along the way they’re just having a laugh.
Now, in a season which has seen the Reds face must-win encounters in every competition for several months already, they now must look Death in the eye, for the second weekend in a row.
Pep Guardiola and Man City are Death to nearly every opponent. Most often, they are Death by a thousand cuts, using a scalpel to cut with elegant incisions that leave the victim to bleed out over 90 minutes. Last weekend, they borrowed Liverpool’s tools, and instead wielded a very large, two-handed axe, seeking to lop off limbs with every blow. As Pep mischievously told reporters afterward, “Yeah, I try to imitate the best teams. I learn.”
Will LFC face down Death yet again tomorrow? I believe they will. But I acknowledge the very strong possibility that this is the time that the Reaper’s scythe will finally fall.
Meanwhile, the tactical twists that both teams may employ tomorrow remain very uncertain. As Guardiola also pointed out to the media, from a coaching standpoint tomorrow’s match feels like an NBA playoff series, where game-to-game adjustments can make all the difference. How will LFC respond to City’s intense high pressure and more direct passing behind the defense? Will Klopp look to get Thiago more involved by dropping him deeper to retrieve passes from the back line and keeper? How will Pep change last week’s tactics to prevent LFC’s adjustments from gaining purchase? Or, will one or both coaches simply say, “we are going to do what we do, and it’s up to you to stop us”?
In my opinion, although Pep’s belief in his own general tactical approach is near-legendary, he will still not be able to keep himself from engineering tweaks designed to derail LFC. And, although I think Klopp is less-inclined to overthink things, he too will be trying to implement some key adjustments. Both will be looking to create a few twists that the other will not see coming.
I’ve gone back and forth this week about whether I expect another contest involving three or more total goals. Despite the 2-2 draw at Anfield in the fall, before Sunday I thought last week’s game would be a much tighter affair. I was wrong. Both teams had more big chances than I anticipated — and also more goals — although the xG for both teams was still below 1.5. City, for all its attacking threat, needed a deflection to get its first goal. Meanwhile, LFC benefited from a very marginal offside, and some last-gasp defending from Matip to ruin what would have been a legendary Kevin de Bruyne assist to Mahrez at the buzzer. And one of LFC’s goals came from the combination of a world-class pass from Salah and a deadly finish by Mané.
I think tomorrow we are more likely to see a game with two goals or fewer. For one thing, I’m guessing Man City will dial back some of its pressure, even if they continue to play more directly on the counter-attack. And, regardless of tactics employed and chances created, I’m anticipating that the finishing of both teams may come down to earth a bit.
But, ultimately, this is a game of fine margins. Both teams will carve out opportunities. Both teams are filled with individuals who often take advantage of those types of opportunities. On the other hand, both teams are also defensively brilliant, and they concede very few goals. The four goals LFC have scored against City in the Premier League make up 25% of the total goals City have conceded in the league this season. Likewise, City have scored 18% of the total goals LFC have conceded in the league.
After City breached LFC’s line a few times on Sunday, and then Benfica breached it several times on Wednesday, this would seem like a good time to predict that City might run riot tomorrow. But, my Red-tinted glasses see a different story. I think the Reds will be even more prepared, focused, and determined than ever to prevent exactly that.
One interesting twist on tomorrow is the respective injury concerns of both teams. Reportedly, both Kevin de Bruyne and Kyle Walker will miss tomorrow after being hurt on Wednesday against Atletico. Both players fill key roles. Although City has at least three other Uber-talented midfielders/attackers who can also fill the role that KdB played last Sunday — Bernardo Silva, Ilkay Gundogan, and Phil Foden — none of them have quite the same sparkle as de Bruyne. KdB is Man City’s best player. Meanwhile, Kyle Walker is arguably City’s best defender, and his speed goes a long way toward neutralizing LFC’s left-wing threats from Mané and Díaz. But, although these two absences are bad news for Man City, they also received the good news that star center back Ruben Dias is now back in training, after missing the last six weeks. If Kyle Walker is not City’s best defender, than Ruben Dias probably is.
For Liverpool, Klopp reported that Diogo Jota had some minor swelling from a “knock” to an unspecified body part during the Benfica match. This immediately made me believe that our starting forward line tomorrow will be Díaz, Mané, and Salah. This personnel shift alone — if it happens — would be a fairly significant tactical change from the Reds’ starting approach on Sunday. Mané will drop deep and support the midfield far more often than Jota did, while still posing a significant threat to make runs behind the line.
But, after Klopp’s highly-questionable report of an “injury” to Trent Alexander-Arnold that kept Trent out of the England team a few weeks ago, I wonder whether this recent report regarding Jota might also be a bit of a tactical feint. Perhaps Jürgen WANTS Pep to prepare as if Díaz will start on the wing and Mané in the middle, but instead Klopp intends to go with the same forward line he used on Sunday. Probably not. But maybe.
Apart from the reported swelling to the mystery appendage of our Portuguese striker, LFC again should have a full squad available.
I expect that Matip will sit this one out, in preparation for the United match coming up on Tuesday. Generally, Klopp tries to protect Matip from muscle injuries more than VVD. Because VVD got the rest on Wednesday, and Matip played the full 90, I’m guessing that Klopp will go with the CB pairing of VVD and Konaté tomorrow. Otherwise, apart from the Jota/Díaz question thrashed out above, I think the lineup will be the same as it was on Sunday.
So, my guess at our lineup:
City 0 – LFC 1 (no extra time)
Up the death-defying Reds!
