Have I mentioned that I hate them?
Narratives always abound when these two meet, and this time is no different. Some of those narratives are complete bullshit, but they are still narratives being told and discussed.
Among them:
- Cristiano Ronaldo v. Mohamed Salah
- Ole Gunnar Solskjaer under pressure.
- Naby Keïta’s time at LFC is (almost) up.
- LFC have had the better season so far, but “you can throw the form book out the window” for this rivalry.
With the probable exception of #2, all of those narratives are bullshit. For example, let’s look at the first one. Ronaldo has so far scored three tap-ins in the Premier League, and his team have floundered in their first eight matches in the league, despite the fact that Man United have yet to face Chelsea, Man City, or Liverpool. Meanwhile, Mo Salah has seven league goals, Sadio Mané has five, and Roberto Firmino has four. Liverpool are one point behind the top spot, and they have already played both Chelsea and Man City. Mo Salah has one or two tap-ins among his seven league goals, and he also has two goals that will seriously contend for Premier League goal of the season. Salah has scored in nine consecutive matches across all competitions. Salah also four assists in the league, while CR7 has none.
We don’t need to discuss those bullshit narratives any more than we already have. Let’s move on to the real stuff.
I think Liverpool are going to dominate this game, and almost certainly win it.
Strangely, this version of Manchester United boasts more individual talent than any United team since Alex Ferguson left the club. In fact, even though United won the title in the second year that I watched the Premier League (Ferguson’s last season), I believe the current team has more overall talent than that title-winning team did.
We’ve already mentioned Cristiano Ronaldo, who is probably one of the 10 best footballers ever to play. Indeed, there are those who believe he’s the GOAT, and those people have reasonable arguments. Yes, he’s old now, and he lacks the overwhelming speed that he had throughout most of his career. But he still has an amazing skill set as a finisher. He can still score goals in myriad ways. He is probably better at scoring with his head than any player I’ve ever seen. He can launch a free kick into the net from 30 yards. He can rifle shots into the top corner from the edge of the box with either foot. And, as we’ve already seen this season in the league, he’s a dangerous predator in the box, constantly positioning himself to pounce on balls in areas where he can easily dispatch them into the goal. He is intense, he is focused, and he desperately wants to win. His presence on your team means you are one moment of magic away from scoring, in spite of whatever else may be happening elsewhere on the pitch. Ronaldo’s late winner this week in the Champions League is one example among dozens of others over his career.
Languishing on United’s bench thus far this season is 34-year-old Edinson Cavani. This man has scored 370 goals across his career. And just last season, he scored 17 goals in all competitions for Manchester United. He is still a fantastic finisher. He is another predator in the box who can score many types of goals and always gives you a chance.
Marcus Rashford gives United blazing speed, terrific ball skills, the ability to keep his head up and find the teammate in space, and solid finishing ability.
For several years, Jaden Sancho has been one of the most celebrated, admired, and wanted young attackers in the world. He is lightning fast and has incredible dribbling skills.
Mason Greenwood is just as fast as Rashford, and Greenwood is a better finisher.
Paul Pogba has the entire package as a midfielder. Vision, speed, strength, and a ridiculous set of ball skills.
United’s best offensive player is Bruno Fernandes. He’s scored a goal every other game throughout his stint at Manchester United, and he is an exquisite passer. Fernandes often carves teams apart.
For most of David DeGea’s career, he has been among the top five goalkeepers in the world.
The injured center back Raphael Varane has won the World Cup and multiple Champions League titles, and he’s long been considered a world-class player.
And, in spite of this galaxy of sparkling talent, Manchester United, as a team, are currently firmly mired in mediocrity.
As a group, those brilliant individual footballers have — so far — amounted to far less than the sum of their parts. Perhaps this is a coaching problem. Perhaps there is no overall coherent vision to guide the club’s personnel, coaching, and tactical decisions. But, whatever the reason, Manchester United are simply not very good, by any objective measure.
Offensively, Manchester United have been good at attacking set pieces. But, they have otherwise been stagnant and often ineffective, despite their incredible collection of attacking talent. They have amassed 13.52 xG in the league, which is currently fifth, behind LFC, Man City, Chelsea, and West Ham.
Defensively, Man United are a mess. Their xGa is 11.10, which is 10th in the league. They have been a sieve.
United have several significant defensive weaknesses. First, they are among the league’s worst at defending set pieces. Second, they are poor at handling defensive pressure from the opposition — they are NOT press-resistant. Third, they are terrible at defending against counter-attacks.
And, that brings us to Liverpool.
Just as Atletico Madrid are a team built to exploit LFC’s weaknesses, Liverpool are a team built to exploit Manchester United’s.
Liverpool’s attacking metrics in the Premier League this season place them well ahead of everyone else.
Liverpool’s xG across eight matches stands at 20.54, which is nearly three more than their closest rival (City).
Liverpool have been lethal from set pieces.
Liverpool press with more intensity than any team in the Premier League (and perhaps any team in the world).
And, Liverpool’s counterattacks strike fear into any defense. LFC’s counterattacks begin with the elite passing skills of their goalkeepers, center backs, and fullbacks, and end with the world-class finishing skills of four amazing forwards. With a single pass, Liverpool can go from defending their own box to opening up a defense on the other end.
Tomorrow, I don’t know what type of tactical approach Man United will take. They may park the bus and seek to pick us off on the counter. They might try to combine a deep defense with occasional pressing. They will almost certainly often try to get behind LFC’s defense, probably from wide positions, which is an LFC weakness that United are well-suited to exploit. Because United have so much individual talent, especially at the attacking end of the pitch, they are certainly capable of scoring several goals and winning the match, however dominant LFC’s performance may be throughout the rest of the match.
But United would have to get lucky for that to happen.
LFC will be all over them. LFC will generate many, many chances to score — from pressing, from counter-pressing, from possession, and from set pieces. United, like Watford last week, will find themselves struggling to pass the ball into the attacking half. They will find themselves struggling to breathe.
United will have a few chances, and they may take them. But they will have to. I think it’s far more likely that we strike early and often, then sit back and pick them off on the counterattack in the second half.
I don’t have a clear idea of how we will line up for this one. I think our back line will be the obvious choices. I suspect that Jota will start, simply because Firmino has already played a lot of minutes this week. But, given the gap from Tuesday to Sunday, maybe Klopp will stick with Bobby. But, as always, the biggest question marks about personnel are in the midfield. I would be shocked if Fabinho and Hendo don’t start, but the third spot is very much a mystery. I would choose Keïta, given his incredible pressing skills and the combined threat of his dribbling and passing. But, AOC has looked quite good in his recent appearances, and he creates similar problems for the opposition. Meanwhile, Milner and Curtis Jones are both available, and it would not be particularly surprising to see either one of them in the lineup.
For what it’s worth, this is my guess:
Up the Relentless Reds!
LFC have scored at least three goals in eight consecutive away matches, and I like our chances to make it nine.
MU 1 – LFC 4
Fuck the Fucking Fuckers. Have I mentioned that I hate them?
