So many unknowns about this one.
Biggest question is: will it happen? Most of my Twitter feed seems to think “No.” This seems a reasonable assumption, based on the fact that more than half of this weekend’s fixtures have already been postponed, and more Liverpool players are rumored to have COVID. But, I tend to think it WILL happen. There’s so much money at stake for a lot of people, none of whose lives will be risked if the games go forward. Especially since, from an advertising standpoint, the “Festive Fixtures” are probably among the league’s biggest profit-generating periods.
Question two: who will be available for LFC? The current rumors are that Henderson and Salah are positive. That would mean we have five out with COVID-19: Mo, Hendo, VVD, Fabinho, and CuJo.
Question three: who will play for Spurs? On this one, there’s no way to know. We know that at least eight players had COVID, maybe more. But we don’t know who they were, and it’s probable that all of them are now past it. Spurs have not played a competitive match since December 5. Since then, Liverpool have played three times. Thus, Klopp pointed out in his press conference that he doesn’t know who Spurs will play.
Klopp also pointed to Question four: HOW will Spurs play? Since it’s been so long since Spurs’ last match, we have little idea how Spurs will set up tactically, and we certainly don’t know what type of form they will be in.
Here’s what we know:
- Antonio Conte has been Spurs’ manager since the first week in November.
- Since 2011 when he went to Juventus, every club Antonio Conte has coached has won a league title under him, including his Chelsea team in 2017, and his Inter Milan team last season.
- Conte has not yet lost a league match with Spurs, though they have yet to face a “big” opponent.
- Conte has been employing his preferred 3-4-3 formation since he arrived, with Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, and Lucas Moura up top.
- Conte’s teams are always defensively solid, and Spurs have great experience as a defensive/counterattacking team under prior management.
- In the four PL matches under Conte, Spurs have conceded a total of one goal.
- Son and Kane can be an incredibly effective counterattacking duo, although Harry Kane has yet to get started so far this season.
These facts make plain to me that this is a very dangerous fixture for Liverpool (and probably for everyone in the crowd, as well).
My hope is that Spurs will be slow starters tomorrow, in light of their rustiness. They may not have the highest level of fitness, due to their recent quarantine period. Liverpool will not be at full strength, but whoever the Reds put out, we know they will be pressing Spurs hard. Hopefully that pressure will create chances, and we will convert some of them early.
If we don’t get a goal or two early, I will be nervous. The longer into the match we are forced to press, the more counterattacking opportunities Spurs will have, and the more confidence Spurs will regain defensively.
Liverpool will be without their safety-blanket tandem of VVD and Fabinho. Not having that safety blanket tomorrow is even scarier than usual, given Spurs’ efficiency on the break. If Henderson is also out, Klopp has a big decision as to who to play in the six role. My bet is the job will fall to young Tyler Morton, who has looked great in his two Champions League starts. And, although I think we would be more likely to win with Henderson in the team, I actually think Morton is less likely to find himself out of position on the break than Henderson would be. Positionally, Morton will be far more conservative. On Thursday, when we were still up by only one goal against Newcastle, Henderson was pressing forward into the opposition box, even while both of our other two central midfielders were also wildly out of position to stop a potential counter. Morton won’t do that.
Here’s my guess at a lineup. This time I will assume the Twitter rumors are true (the mystery CM is supposed to be Tyler Morton, who isn’t even available in the CreateFormation.com database):
I still like our chances, but I expect a close one, with a lot of scares.
Spurs 1 – LFC 2
