This is Liverpool Football Club’s biggest game of the season. Again.
We start at nil to 2. Almost safe.
I believe that if the Reds had managed to parlay their dominance at Anfield into a third goal, we would see a lot of reserves starting this one. But nil to two is quite different from nil to three. Even at nil to three, this LFC team has the lived experience of coming back to win in the second leg against a European giant that includes the world’s best player. Liverpool will not be taking this match lightly.
We will go with a very strong starting lineup. After Saturday’s rotation, that lineup will also be relatively well-rested. Moreover, as has been the case for the last couple of months, this LFC squad is nearly injury-free. Only Firmino remains unavailable, and Klopp still thinks Bobby is close to a return (as he allegedly has been for two weeks now).
For me, it will be intriguing to see how Villarreal approach this match tactically. Villarreal are a team that know how to press, and it’s quite possible that they will come right out of the gate pressing all over the pitch. That’s what I would do if I were them in this situation. I would want an early goal, getting the crowd up and the players full of belief. But there’s a very rational argument for Villarreal to approach the game much more conservatively — aiming just to stay within two goals for the first 45 to 60 minutes, before unleashing the hounds in a shortened, 30-to-45-minute match with the crowd at their back.
Tomorrow Villarreal should have their best scoring threat — Gerard Moreno — after he missed the first leg with a hamstring injury. However, reports indicate that the Yellow Submarine may be missing their second-best scorer — Arnaut Danjuma, who did play last week at Anfield.
The Reds thoroughly dominated Villarreal last week, and prevented them from creating any of their usual threats on the counterattack. But Unai Emery will adjust. And this Villarreal team are full of menace, especially with Moreno back in the lineup. They are among the best teams in Europe at attempting and completing through balls, which is a tactic that can potentially devastate LFC’s high defensive line. Of course, actually breaching that high line is far easier said than done, as Villarreal learned last week. Finally, Villarreal’s defense is quite strong — the one strength of theirs that did manage to peek through at Anfield, despite the concession of two goals.
Cliché that it is, I think the direction of tomorrow’s game will depend almost entirely on which team manages to get the first goal. If Liverpool do it, they will then be able to shut the game down by playing keep away. Liverpool have been doing a lot of that over the last several months, and they have mostly been excellent when doing so. A few times the Reds may have become a bit complacent, as in the 3-3 draw at Anfield in the second leg against Benfica. But, arguably, employing the keep away tactic not only helps manage the game that they are currently playing, but also helps keep the players fresher for the matches coming up. While playing keep away the Reds are effectively “resting on the ball” (as Brendan Rodgers would describe it), and expending far less energy than they typically do when out of possession and pressing.
If Villarreal scores first, then the tension and intensity of the match will ratchet up to the max. I like our chances in that type of match, but obviously anything could happen.
Here’s my guess at a lineup:
Díaz might start over Jota, and Robertson and/or Matip could also start. The Reds will have a full three days rest before playing Spurs on Saturday.
I think the Reds will score first and then shut it down. As the Reds’ pressing intensity drops, look for Villarreal to connect on some of those through balls, which they were unable to do at all during the first leg. I expect Villarreal to get a consolation goal at some point in the second half.
Villarreal 1 – LFC 1 (Reds win on aggregate 3-1)
Up the Mighty Reds!
