The mighty Reds are rolling. Of course, two of the last four games have been against opposition that both pressed us AND played with only two central midfielders. Yum Yum. I’m no football expert, but I know enough about how to increase your chances against Liverpool to realize that those two tactical choices ain’t right — especially together. Not to say that you can’t win with that approach. But I believe you’re making things harder on yourself. It’s intriguing to me that the two managers who made those choices — Mikel Arteta and Rafa Benitez, are both sophisticated tactical thinkers. Arteta probably did it just because that’s how he wants his team to play, and they had been on a run of success doing just that. Benitez, on the other hand, doesn’t usually play that way, so it’s more of a mystery. But, I won’t try to solve that particular mystery here.
Back to the Reds. Did I say they are rolling? Since the international break, LFC have scored 14 and conceded one. Remarkably, during this stretch the Reds have been far from perfect — and still a ways off their absolute best. They have plenty of room to improve.
Across the last three league matches, the Reds’ xG differential has been a whopping +2.3 xG. For the season, the Reds’ league xG differential now stands at +1.59 xG per match. City is next in the league with +1.44, and Chelsea is third with +0.88. Not coincidentally, the fivethirtyeight.com algorithm has started liking the Reds’ chance a lot better recently. Currently, that website has LFC as third-favorite to win the Champions League, with a 17% probability, just behind City (21%) and Bayern Munich (22%). In the Premier League, that same algorithm gives LFC a 35% chance of winning the title, while City remain favorites (45%). The algorithm says Chelsea have a 20% chance of winning the Premier League, and everyone else has no statistically meaningful chance.
The Reds have also been passing the eye test. Our press has been moving and shaking, and our crisp, one- and two-touch passing has been gorgeous. LFC have been demonstrating that the club’s identity is truly intensity.
On the down side, Liverpool remain susceptible on counter-attacks, and still seem to be giving teams one or two (and sometimes even more) one-on-one chances against Alisson nearly every game. Against West Ham, we conceded twice on corners and the Hammers hit the crossbar on a third corner (and they only had three corners all game). However, much of that was down to Alisson himself having a very uncharacteristically poor game. We have appeared to be solid on set plays since the international break.
I believe our CBs are still adjusting as they either return from injury or, in Konaté’s case, acclimate to a new team. Klopp’s system places huge demands on midfielders, both physically and mentally. Plus, Klopp and his staff have tweaked the midfield balance tactically — as the right-sided central midfielder (no matter who it has been) has been asked to play a more advanced role all season. Meanwhile, our central midfielding crew has suffered lots of injuries, and for much of this season (and virtually ALL of last season) we have not had three midfielders available who are a good fit for each other as a unit.
The midfield has come around. Fabinho, Thiago and Henderson are a tremendous unit. Swap Ox for Hendo and you STILL have an outstanding group. Swap Keïta for Thiago and you’re also still purring. Fabinho remains a key man, although Henderson can swap with him and we remain functional. We’re just not nearly as solid defensively with Henderson playing as the deepest of the three.
Naby Keïta and Joe Gomez both returned to training yesterday. They won’t be in the squad tomorrow, but I expect they may make the bench for Tuesday’s CL group stage finale in Milan. Curtis Jones is still not allowed to participate in full-contact because of his eye injury, but his vision is apparently fine. It shouldn’t be too long for him.
Wolverhampton are a good team. They sit eighth in the table, and they also have a respectable xG differential (-0.01). Under a new manager (as their old one, Nuno Espirito Santo, briefly went to Tottenham), they’ve played a bit more offensively this season. Nonetheless, they have only scored 12, and they’ve conceded the same number. But, as solid as Wolverhampton are, they simply aren’t on the same competitive level as Liverpool. LFC have also conceded 12, but have scored 43.
Hopefully, LFC will rotate some for this match. We play again on Tuesday, although that one’s a dead rubber in the Champions League. Nonetheless, I would strongly prefer that Klopp not wait until then to rotate out some of the starters. I suspect the defense will stay the same as on Wednesday, but the midfield and forwards will rotate at least some.
Here’s my wild-assed guess:
Wolves 0 – LFC 2
Roll on.
