Pull the plug, wait a bit, then reconnect. Mash that power button. Ctrl-alt-del. Reset.
Let’s get this season restarted properly, shall we?
For whatever reason, Liverpool’s actual start to this season has been less than compelling. I’ve grown tired of speculating about why that’s been true, and I’m confident you’re similarly weary of reading my speculation. But we know this: regardless of what’s gone wrong over the last two months, from here on out Liverpool have to purr on all cylinders if we’re to be celebrating any major trophies come May.
It’s Now or Never
On paper, this would appear to be a fantastic time for Liverpool to reboot. They have had a big chunk of time off, with the Queen’s death postponing the last two Premier League matches, followed by an international break. In that time (and just before), most of LFC’s significant injury problems have resolved, with Thiago, Jota, Henderson, and Konaté all now fit and available. Several other players also appear close to a return from injury, including Andy Robertson, Curtis Jones, Caoimhin Kelleher, and our new young right back, Calvin Ramsay.
Finally, newly-loaned midfielder Arthur Melo has used the last several weeks as his own preseason with Liverpool. Behind the scenes, there’s no doubt that Arthur has spent much of that time with Pep Ljinders and the rest of the coaching staff on the training pitch and in the video room, learning the specifics of how to play midfield in a Jürgen Klopp team. Arthur has also worked on getting back to match fitness, by playing two matches with the LFC Under-21 team. For Arthur, all of this preparation was much-needed. First, Arthur came to Liverpool not having played a competitive football match for several months. Second, playing midfield for Klopp’s Liverpool is both more demanding than most midfield roles, and quite different. Klopp could not reasonably expect Arthur to step in last month and immediately contribute in a meaningful way. Now, however, he should be ready. I’m hopeful that he’ll come on for Thiago tomorrow for the last 20 minutes or so, then start in Thiago’s place mid-week against Rangers. If we instead see Milner filling in for Thiago in those spots, that will not bode well for Arthur’s future as a Red. In my view, it also won’t bode well for the Reds’ chances for major trophies this season. Maybe Klopp will feel he still needs to give Arthur more time. But I think it’s more likely now or never.
Of the significant absentees during the first two months, only Naby Keïta and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain remain long-term problems. I now believe that Keïta is unlikely to play for Liverpool again. Although the club publicly claims that he is injured, I doubt it. I think the timing of his so-called “injury,” and the lack of details about that injury, strongly suggest that Keïta has had a falling out with management after negotiations to renew his contract recently broke down. Oxlade-Chamberlain is also in the final year of his contract, and suffered a serious muscle injury during the preseason. So, I doubt that we can count on much, if any, contribution from those two.
In addition to welcoming back a significant group of players from injury, Liverpool are also coming off probably their best performance of the season in their 2-1 victory over Ajax. Sure, the Reds also blew Bournemouth away 9-0. But that match felt more like a one-off, and it involved very weak competition. By contrast, the Ajax performance looked and felt like the return of the Reds to their own excellent standards, which we have come to expect under Jürgen Klopp. And that great performance came against a very good Ajax team.
And, perhaps most importantly, the break also gave Liverpool’s non-injured players the opportunity for a much-needed rest. The stats have shown that, Liverpool’s vaunted “intensity” has simply not been present in most games this season. Not only injuries, but also last year’s grueling schedule and the shortened summer break have all contributed. Hopefully, starting tomorrow, Liverpool will be rested and ready to outrun their opponents.
If this is the moment that Liverpool reboots and begins anew, it comes just in the nick of time. From here on out, the schedule gets crazy.
Liverpool begin the craziness tomorrow at Anfield against Brighton, which currently sit in fourth place in the Premier League. From there until the World Cup break begins in mid-November, the Reds will play three games a week, every week. To add even more urgency, Liverpool faces Arsenal and Manchester City in their next two Premier League games after Saturday. This means that our upcoming three league matches involve the teams currently sitting in fourth, first, and second place in the league table.
As I said, it’s now or never.
Brighton Are Also Beginning Anew
Brighton come to Anfield having just pressed the reboot button themselves. Their outstanding young manager, Graham Potter, has departed to Chelsea. Tomorrow marks the first match with replacement manager Roberto DeZerbi in charge.
At first, the managerial change makes it seem difficult to know what to expect from Brighton. But, given that the new manager has barely taken hold of the reins, and that his new team have been playing excellent football before his arrival, I think we’re unlikely to see major changes in Brighton’s lineup or approach tomorrow.
Brighton are a very good football team. They have conceded only five Premier League goals this season, which is best in the league. Meanwhile, their 10 goals scored places them seventh in that department.
Brighton press very effectively, and play a high defensive line. Despite exposing themselves, Brighton limit their opponents from securing major scoring opportunities by getting behind that high line.
Brighton are also extremely tactically flexible. Under Potter, they routinely shifted formations and tactical approaches mid-match. Players often found themselves playing multiple positions and tactical roles within the same game. And, to the credit of both manager and players, they have pulled these in-game transitions off smoothly and effectively. Given the players’ collective experience taking this flexible approach, one would expect that these players are well-prepared to adjust to whatever new tactics their new manager may adopt.
Unsurprisingly, Brighton chose to hire a new manager whose footballing philosophy and tactics are quite similar to the departing manager, who had brought the team great success. Like Potter, DeZerbi is well-known for having his teams press high. The biggest tactical difference between the two is probably that DeZerbi prefers to control possession even more than Potter. Indeed, DeZerbi’s tactics are often compared with those of Pep Guardiola. DeZerbi’s teams keep the ball by passing quickly and intricately all over the pitch. Then when they lose it, they try to get it back immediately. Then they play keep-away once again.
Fortunately for Liverpool, these are exactly the type of tactics that they enjoy playing against most. Teams that prefer to keep the ball generally eschew the direct approach of kicking long balls that bypass the midfield, and instead want to “pass it out from the back” using short passing combinations. All of those short passing combinations give Liverpool’s press more opportunities to steal the ball and counter, which is exactly what Klopp’s team wants to do.
Nonetheless, Brighton have proven to be a very difficult opponent for Liverpool over the last several seasons. Their midfielders and defenders are particularly strong. Indeed, strong rumors persist that Liverpool may seek to purchase Brighton’s emerging star midfielder Moises Caicedo in the upcoming January transfer window.
How Will Liverpool Line Up?
I expect tomorrow’s starting lineup to look very similar or identical to the lineup Klopp used against Ajax before the long break. Although Henderson and Konaté will both be available tomorrow, I expect them to be on the bench.
For me, the biggest question mark about tomorrow’s lineup is the forward line. My guess is that it will be the same as it was against Ajax — featuring Díaz, Jota, and Salah. But, Luis Díaz has played 706 out of the available 720 minutes for Liverpool this season in all competitions. Díaz also just played 150 out of 180 minutes for Colombia during the break, while also traveling to the United States (and back) to do that. If Díaz does NOT start, I would expect Darwin Núñez to start as center forward, with Jota moving over to the left forward slot.
Speaking of Núñez, I remain excited to see him kick into gear in a red shirt. Judging from my Twitter feed, most Liverpool fans seem disappointed with his performances thus far. I think this is borderline absurd. Yes, the blond guy over at Manchester City is outplaying everyone else, including Darwin. But Núñez is putting up some extremely good xG numbers himself. He will soon be finding the back of the net with regularity. Book it. Nonetheless, I expect him to need to wait at least until the second half tomorrow to get the chance.
My guess at the lineup:
This will be a tough match, and the Reds will need to shake off some rust after the long break. But I expect their focus and intensity to be high. All of them will feel they have something to prove after their slow start. Trent Alexander-Arnold stands at the top of the list, as his England manager appears to have frozen him out of the team and publicly claimed that England’s other three right backs are all better players than him “overall.” Likewise, goal hound Mohamed Salah will be eager to chase Erling Haaland for the Golden Boot, even if it seems like an unreachable target to the rest of us.
Ever the optimist, I like our chances.
Let’s get this thing restarted. Up the Mighty Reds.
Liverpool 2 – Brighton Hove Albion 0
