So far, my optimism has proven unwarranted.
Yet again, Liverpool failed to click.
Yet again, Liverpool gave up big chances to score (and were fortunate that Everton’s goal was offside).
Yet again, we are left with questions about Liverpool’s lack of fluency and intensity.
Everton are crap. Sure, this was a derby at Everton’s house, and they were always gonna be up for it. And, to be fair, a nil-nil draw between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison is a quite common result. Saturday was the fifth time since Feb. 2015 that these two teams have drawn 0-0 at Goodison Park. Still, it shouldn’t be happening now, because Everton are crap.
Mystery: The Performance Data Seem to Suggest That Liverpool Are Doing OK
Much of my optimism up to this point in the season has been data-driven. As I described last time, Liverpool have been among the best teams in the Premier League this season at creating goal-scoring opportunities, as measured by their expected goals (xG). And, while the data show that LFC’s defense has been less effective than its offense in terms of conceding expected goals, even those numbers haven’t been THAT bad.
The data even called into question what my eyes have told me, which is that Liverpool are pressing far less-intensely than what we’re accustomed to seeing. In the stat most-routinely cited as a metric for pressing — passes per defensive action (PPDA) — Liverpool rank third. And LFC rank first in the league for pressing percentage — how often the team recovers the ball within five seconds of applying pressure.
But the Running Stats Show Something Different — Mystery Solved?
Now, however, I’ve learned that another set of data absolutely DOES fit with what my eyes have been telling me — the running stats. Klopp’s teams have always been well-known for outrunning their opponents, both in distance covered and in the number of high-intensity runs (a/k/a sprints). In general, teams run a lot more without the ball than they do when they have it. Nonetheless, Klopp’s teams have outrun their opponents even though his teams typically have more possession.
But not this year.
#lfc have been out run in every single match this season.
Minimum 1.7k fewer than opponent, max 7k, average 3.4k per match— Dan Kennett (@DanKennett) September 3, 2022
Kennett also pointed out that LFC have had fewer High Intensity Runs than their opponent in every match this season.
This is not good. This is not Klopp’s football. And it’s certainly not the football of the team whose slogan is, “Our identity is intensity.”
Why Aren’t Liverpool Running?
But why is it happening?
I don’t know.
My previous answer to “What’s wrong with Liverpool?” has been: a) Injuries; and b) Players’ hesitation from lack of familiarity with a new tactical system. But neither of these answers seems to provide an adequate explanation for Liverpool running less.
New tactical assignments should not mean that Liverpool run less across the board. Certain individual players might have tactical assignments that mean they run less often than they (or whoever previously played in their position) have done before. But the team as a whole shouldn’t be running less just because positional assignments have changed. Klopp could have decided that the team as a whole should run less, but that seems highly unlikely, given how Klopp has had his teams play throughout his managerial career. Indeed, Klopp’s top assistant, Pep Ljinders, just published a book with the title Intensity. The likelihood that this coaching staff have shuffled from “Intensity” to “Passivity” is not so high.
Injuries MIGHT be the answer, but it seems unlikely. Shouldn’t Liverpool’s squad players who are filling in for injured players be (mostly) running just as hard and just as far as the men they are replacing?
Dan Kennett suggests that the squad is not yet fit, for whatever reason. That seems plausible. The offseason was short, and so was the preseason. And last season the squad went through the crucible, having played every match they could have possibly played. Plus, the focus and intensity levels required for those matches last season was extreme. Liverpool were fighting to win four titles. Throughout the second half of the season, every match felt like the most important match of the season.
Finally, the players simply may not be trying as hard. This seems unlikely to me, even though it LOOKS like they’re taking it easier when I watch them. Perhaps they’re suffering from burnout. Some of them are past their prime, and are slowing down — James Milner has now been dribbled past more than any other player in the Premier League, despite playing very few minutes.
I don’t know the answer. But I do know that Klopp and his staff need to find the answer and fix it.
Will the Returning Players Help?
On Saturday Darwin Núñez returned, and we also saw a bit of Diogo Jota. Now, Thiago Alcântara is back in training and could start tomorrow. On the flip side, Curtis Jones has aggravated the injury that kept him out for the first month of the season, Jordan Henderson is out for about three weeks, and Liverpool have left Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keïta completely out of the Champions League squad for the group stages, which means we won’t see them (in Europe, at least) until January, at the earliest. Personally, I doubt that Keïta will ever play for Liverpool again, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we’ve also seen the last of Ox.
Adding to the injury woes, Fabio Carvalho is suffering from a “dead leg” after being brutally elbowed in the thigh on Saturday. Carvalho did not travel to Italy for tomorrow’s match, although Klopp hopes that he will be available against Wolverhampton this weekend.
I expect Thiago’s return to help Liverpool a lot. In addition to lacking intensity during matches, Liverpool have also lacked control. That’s Thiago’s job. He controls matches. Thiago’s passing, vision, timing, and leadership are essential. He was poor before being injured in the opening match against Fulham, but hopefully he won’t repeat that anomalous performance when he comes back. Last season Thiago and Keïta essentially shared the role of left-sided #8 in the Liverpool midfield, with Thiago playing about 70% of the time. This season, neither one of them has been available, and there’s little doubt that their absence has played a big part in LFC’s malaise.
Now, in place of Naby Keïta, it appears that Arthur Melo will be sharing the left-sided #8 duties with Thiago. Curtis Jones would have also been a candidate, but his injuries may have pushed him further down the ladder. Of course, Arthur has yet to set foot on the pitch in a Liverpool shirt, and he could be an abject failure once he does. But I doubt it. Arthur is a great passer, and he knows and understands how to maintain possession and control. Those are primary skill sets for Liverpool’s left-sided #8.
It will be interesting to see how both Thiago and Arthur get used tomorrow. I’m guessing that Thiago will start and that Arthur will sub in for him at some point in the second half. It could be the other way around. Or, Klopp might surprise us by doing something else, such as starting Firmino in midfield, which he did during the second half against Everton.
What Will Happen Tomorrow?
I don’t know much about this Napoli team. They currently sit second in Serie A, and they have been a strong team for quite a long time. Based on recent seasons, I would expect them to defend fairly deep, while posing big threats on the counter. Playing away at Napoli is ALWAYS difficult. The crowd is intense — sometimes to the point of becoming violent.
Klopp’s Liverpool have played at Napoli twice previously, losing both times. And those losses came during seasons when Liverpool otherwise achieved tremendous success, in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
As for our lineup, I expect Matip to come in for Gomez, just so Joël can get some more playing time. Trent could probably use a rest, but I doubt that he will get it, especially after Klopp subbed for him on Saturday. Robertson will come back into the lineup.
In midfield, Fabinho will unfortunately probably need to start yet again. I’m quite worried that he’s already been pushed too hard, but the injuries have left us in a situation where Klopp’s midfield choices are very limited. As noted above, I expect Thiago to start on the left of midfield, and I’ll guess that Elliott keeps his spot on the right. Again, Klopp doesn’t have a lot of choices there. Plus, Elliott has been one of the bright spots so far this season.
In the forward line, I expect Mo to start, as he nearly always does. I think Luis Díaz is due for a rest, and I’m expecting Diogo Jota to start in his place. If that’s true, then Darwin Núñez should get his second straight start at the center forward spot. Alternatively, Díaz could start on the left with Jota in the middle and Núñez on the bench.
So, my guess for LFC’s starting lineup:
I rarely predict that Liverpool will lose, both because it rarely happens and because I’m generally optimistic. But occasionally I have a bad feeling, as I do now. In the past, my bad feelings have often led to Liverpool victories. So, here’s to that.
Napoli 2 – LFC 0.
Up the Reds!
