Hey, everyone! Happy Boxing Day Eve!
I hope your holiday revelry — in whatever form it takes — has been fun, relaxing, and/or rewarding so far.
But now we’re back to serious business. With Man City taking the the League Cup out of the equation for the Reds last week, Liverpool have two important competitions left to focus on (and also the FA Cup). Barring a miracle, the league title is sadly already out of reach. But the Reds have a legitimate, if uphill, chance at a Top Four spot. Plus, we’re still in the Champions League, even if we had the misfortune of drawing Real Madrid in the round of 16.
There’s lots to play for, and still about two-thirds of the season left to play.
Plus, it wouldn’t be a World Cup without tons of transfer rumors revolving around the hottest players at the tournament. Liverpool are at the center of several of those rumors.
Let’s start there. Will Liverpool be bringing in any help in the January transfer window?
Judenzo – Running the Midfield Rumor Mill
Liverpool have been heavily linked in various media outlets with Benfica’s Enzo Fernández and Dortmund’s Jude Bellingham. Argentinian Enzo was the young player of the World Cup tournament and walked off with a winner’s medal. Jude was England’s best player and he happens to be just 19. Both of them play as box-to-box midfielders. Both of them are outstanding defenders. Both are excellent playmakers. Both of them are young. And, to get back where we started, both of them were stars in the World Cup.
Fernández’s contract reportedly has a release clause somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 million euros. Of course, Benfica might let him go for less, but before doing so they’d be wise to encourage a bidding war among the richest clubs in world football.
Bellingham has been on the radar of Liverpool and every other Premier League team since he was a youngster. At 17, Jude left Birmingham City for a hefty fee (reportedly £25 million) to go play in Germany. The teenager has bossed the midfield in Dortmund, just as he has for England’s national team. He’s silky, strong, fast, tall, and incredibly technically talented. He has great vision, and great maturity. He seems to be a coach’s dream and an ideal teammate.
Of course, I have no inside knowledge about any potential transfers. For what it’s worth, I think there’s a pretty good chance that Liverpool will end up buying one of these two players in the summer. But I seriously doubt that the Reds will buy both of them, and I doubt that either transfer would occur in the January window. Although they’re obviously different players with different styles, they would serve similar functions. Both could cover multiple positions in Liverpool’s midfield.
But, perhaps most importantly, they would both require huge sums of money to acquire, leaving little leftover for other transfers. With Milner, Keïta, and Oxlade-Chamberlain all likely to depart this summer, Liverpool will need to buy at least two and probably three midfielders. It seems far more reasonable to assume that Liverpool would be willing to lay out such a massive sum for ONE or the other of Fernández or Bellingham, while spreading other money around on less expensive purchases.
A similar rumor suggests that Moroccan defensive midfielder Sofyan Amrabat could be a Liverpool transfer target. This one smells more like an agent’s hopeful fiction-writing, trying to capitalize on his client’s strong performance in the World Cup.
Nonetheless, because Amrabat is in the final year of his contract at Italian club Fiorentina, acquiring him in January would be far easier for Liverpool than would Fernández or Bellingham. And goodness knows that the sketchy form of Henderson, and especially Fabinho, along with their aging legs, suggests that Liverpool could use some new blood in the defensive midfield slot. But Amrabat is 26 years old, and he’s fairly one-dimensional.
I think Liverpool will be looking to get some defensive midfield help either now or this summer, but will be looking for someone younger and more multi-functional than Amrabat. I suspect that, if Fernández or Bellingham join LFC, they would be playing some defensive midfield, even if they usually feature in a more advance midfield role.
Likewise, Liverpool have also been heavily linked with Brighton’s young box-to-box midfielder Moisés Caicedo, from Ecuador.
Finally, most LFC fans yearn for the club to spend some money this January on a forward, given Liverpool’s current shortage of attackers. But I think that’s unlikely. Díaz and Jota will be back soon, and along with Darwin, they make up a relatively young long-term attacking core. Klopp and company will not want to displace that core merely to cover a short-term need over the next few months.
Speaking of injuries, where are we at?
What’s the Current Injury Situation?
When the Reds reported for their second “preseason” training camp in Dubai during the World Cup, the injury situation briefly looked rosy. Luis Díaz was back in full training and ready to go. But it was not to be. Díaz reinjured the knee and needed surgery. Now he’s out until some time in March.
Diogo Jota remains out until late January or February while recovering from his severe calf injury.
And, speaking of calf injuries, Roberto Firmino suffered a relatively minor one in training leading up to the Carabao Cup match at Manchester City last week. He should be back soon, but he’s probably still going to miss tomorrow’s match.
James Milner also has a relatively minor muscle injury. Curtis Jones has been missing most of the season, but is expected to return to full team training some time next week. Trent Alexander-Arnold missed the Carabao Cup match with a virus of some sort, but hopefully will be available to play tomorrow.
On the bright side, Naby Keïta had missed the entire season to this point — allegedly due to an unspecified injury — but he actually played 30 minutes against Man City on Thursday. This suggests to me that Naby and Jürgen have mended their fences sufficiently for Keïta to play some type of role for the team over the remaining months of the season. If he can play meaningful minutes for the team, I believe he will make a big difference. Liverpool’s pressing and energy in the midfield have been severely lacking so far this season, and Keïta offers those qualities in spades when he’s fit.
Even more importantly, Ibou Konaté is back after the World Cup final, and he will rejoin training on Dec. 27. He won’t play for LFC tomorrow, but I hope to see him start alongside VVD in the December 30 match at Leicester City.
The hope is that whatever went wrong for Liverpool’s fitness gurus during the first preseason has now been corrected during this mid-season World Cup break. Liverpool have had too many injuries, and they have been outrun in almost every match. But just last season, the squad was incredibly effective both on and off the ball. They didn’t run last season as far or as fast as they did a few seasons ago, but they ran a helluva lot better than they have to this point in the 2022-23 season. Hopefully they can return to last season’s form and fitness starting now.
This first week of league play will put Liverpool’s fitness and rotations to the test, as they will play three times in seven days. There will be only two days of rest after the Leicester City match to prepare for Brentford at Anfield on January 2. Fingers crossed that we can make it through that gauntlet with maximum points and minimum injuries.
If Liverpool drop significant points over the coming week, that Top Four chase will become QUITE the uphill battle over the coming months. A quick start following the break will be critical to our chances.
What Will We See Tomorrow?
Tomorrow finds Liverpool heading to Birmingham to face Aston Villa. Villa are now under the direction of Unai Emery, a very talented manager who tends to do well at smaller clubs when trying to take down the big boys. Emery won three consecutive Europa League titles at Sevilla. Sevilla won one of those three Europa League finals against Liverpool, in Klopp’s inaugural season on Merseyside.
Emery will set up Villa in such a way that they are difficult to break down and very tough defensively. Emery will also implement an effective counterattack to go along with his stingy defense. But they are unlikely to park the bus completely — they will probably apply pressure at times, and LFC will need to be careful to avoid turnovers in dangerous areas.
In this match, along with pretty much every other match until Jota and Díaz return, LFC will be relying heavily on the combination of Salah and Núñez. If the opposition applies pressure, Darwin will run behind the defense, and Salah will trail behind him in a threatening position. That approach created Liverpool’s second goal against Man City last week, and it should create many more over the coming months and years.
But, Núñez and Salah won’t always find the back of the net. Until Jota and Díaz return, I fear for Liverpool on the occasions when they don’t.
Tomorrow I expect a back line of Robertson, Matip, van Dijk, and (hopefully) Alexander-Arnold. I’d guess that the first-choice midfield of Thiago, Fabinho, and Henderson will start, and that Oxlade-Chamberlain will join Núñez and Salah in the attack.
Aston Villa 0 – LFC 1
Up the Mighty Reds!
