Preview: Southampton v. LFC

The biggest obstacle to the quadruple — although there are many — has always been Manchester City and their ever-so-slight lead over Liverpool in the Premier League.  As outrageously good as Liverpool are — and this may well be the best team that Liverpool Football Club have ever had — Manchester City are equally as strong. Arguably, Manchester City are even better.

Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Manchester City have accumulated 354 points in the Premier League. LFC have played one fewer match, but if the Reds win tomorrow, they will have earned 353 points in the Premier League over that same time frame. The closest competitor to these two over that four-season span is Chelsea, who have only 275 points. In other words, a full season’s worth of points separates Manchester City and Liverpool from their closest rival over the last four seasons. These two clubs are playing a different game from everyone else. And, as I’ve discussed elsewhere, the objective rankings show that LFC and City are not only the best teams in England, they are also the two best teams in the world. The Euro Club Index currently ranks LFC first, and Man City second. The Global Club Soccer Rankings of Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com reverses the order, but still has Manchester City and Liverpool as the top two teams in the world.

Yesterday, Manchester City finally had a minor slip, drawing against West Ham in London, 2-2. That leaves the Reds four points behind the front-runners, with one game left for City and two for Liverpool.  If both teams win their remaining games, City will again win the Premier League title by a single point, just as they did in the 2018-19 season. You remember — that was the season that Manchester City achieved the unprecedented feat of winning the Premier League, the EFL Cup, and the FA Cup all in the same season. You may remember that season even more for the fact that, although City swept the domestic honors in England, Liverpool won the Champions League — the crown for the best team in all of Europe.

This season, Liverpool have already stashed the EFL Cup and FA Cup trophies. Liverpool have also secured a spot in the Champions League final on May 28 against Real Madrid. But, while three of the four trophies are within or close to LFC’s grasp, that damnable City  team still looks poised to block us from picking up the Premier League title. Again.

But, even in the Premier League, hope is still alive. If the Reds win at Southampton tomorrow and at Anfield against Wolverhampton on Sunday, then the Reds would pip the title in the unlikely event that Manchester City draw or lose to Aston Villa at the Etihad on Sunday.

Thus, tomorrow’s game at Southampton remains the next on the long list of biggest matches of the season. Keep hope alive, baby.

For their part, Southampton should be rested and ready to spoil Liverpool’s league title hopes early. The Saints haven’t played in nine days, and this will be their final home match of the season. The team should be fired up to be playing one of the two best teams in the world.  A win or even a draw against Liverpool would give their home fans something to feel quite good about to close out the season. To be fair, however, Southampton’s players could already be checked out mentally and on the proverbial beach for the summer. They sit in 15th place in the league, safe from relegation and far from the European qualifying spots. At this point, they are playing only for pride and their supporters.

Southampton love to press and harry teams, which could be both a major nuisance and a major comfort for Liverpool tomorrow.  On the nuisance side, the Reds are not likely to have the energy they would want to deal with the type of intense pressing that Southampton are likely to employ. The Reds are only two days removed from having left everything out on the pitch over the course of 120 minutes and a penalty shootout in the FA Cup Final. That match was physically and emotionally played at maximum intensity, and the extra 30 minutes take a tremendous toll on the players who played the full match. Even if the match had only gone for 90 minutes, sports science suggests that footballers need 72 hours to restore muscles completely after a competitive match. Playing again during that three-day recovery window means they risk injury and/or performing at less than their full capabilities. Unless Liverpool rotates their lineup heavily tomorrow, Southampton could easily exploit the Reds’ physical and emotional fatigue lingering from the cup final.

However, on the comfort side, Southampton’s press could give Liverpool exactly the types of scoring opportunities that they relish. Assuming, as I do, that Liverpool WILL rotate their personnel heavily tomorrow, Southampton’s press could be just what the doctor ordered. Such pressure from the opposition means that Liverpool will have space behind Southampton’s defense. LFC will salivate at the prospect of attacking and counterattacking into that space.

The combination of the critical importance of the match to Liverpool, along with the fatigue and injuries that the team is carrying after Saturday’s hyper-intense cup final, means that Jürgen Klopp faces some touch lineup selection decisions. In my opinion, none of the players who played the full 120 minutes on Saturday should start tomorrow. Meanwhile, Fabinho, Salah, and Van Dijk are all suffering from (hopefully minor) muscle injuries. Klopp’s squad is very strong, and he will need to trust his peripheral squad players for this one. But, this will mean that many of us Reds’ supporters cringe when we see the starting eleven tomorrow. The LFC Twitterverse will fill with agonizing complaints about the managers’ personnel decisions.

Predicting the starting eleven under these circumstances is not easy. But, as ever, I’ll give it a shot.

[Edit: Welp, I somehow completely forgot about Roberto Firmino. He should be starting this one. I’ll change my guess to say that Origi plays on the left, Firmino through the middle, and Jota on the right to start the match. Oops.] This lineup lacks a true defensive midfielder, because captain Jordan Henderson played the full 120 minutes on Saturday, and Fabinho is hurt. Nineteen-year-old Tyler Morton — who ordinarily plays for one of LFC’s youth academy teams — started a few matches for the first team earlier this season, and he could start again tomorrow. But, I expect that Klopp will instead ask a senior midfielder to play slightly out of position as the defensive midfielder.  That could be Jones. It could be Milner. It could be Keïta. Or, Klopp might decide to roll the dice with Jordan Henderson’s fitness, given the importance of the match. Or, Klopp might change formations and instead play with two holding midfielders, rather than our usual one.

I’m betting that Klopp sticks with the usual 4-3-3 formation, and that he will ask Curtis Jones  to start the game in the defensive midfield slot.  If that happens, then I expect Henderson will probably come on as a substitute at some point in the second half.

Finally, this match could be Divock Origi’s swan song at Liverpool. I hope he plays. I hope he gets the winner in the 95th minute. Should we expect anything less?  Godspeed Divock. You will always be a legend in Liverpool.

I think the Reds’ reserves should have enough to get by the Saints.

Southampton 1 – LFC 3

Up the Reds. The quadruple is still on. Come On You Redmen!